After playing 11 snaps in Week 6 due to a hamstring injury, there’s a chance Jaguars RB Travis Etienne plays in Week 7, as he was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday.
The game script should be favorable — Jacksonville is favored by 5.5 points over New England in London. With that said, the Patriots have been decent in defending the run this season, being middle-of-the-pack in rush EPA and 11th in success rate, while Jacksonville has been slightly above average at running the ball.
The main issues, though, are the injury and role for Etienne. Hamstring injuries are tricky since they tend to linger, and the chances of re-aggravation are elevated. But more troubling for Etienne is the trend in workload as the season has progressed. Usually the trend is a friend, but not this time for Travis.
In the first three weeks of the season, Etienne averaged 70% of snaps. In Week 4, that number went down to 52% as D’Ernest Johnson and Tank Bigsby received 21% and 29%, respectively. In Week 5, Bigsby out-snapped Etienne, 23-22.
The numbers back up the increased workload for Bigsby. His yards per carry sits at 7.2 vs. 4.1 for Etienne. Bigsby has a 41.5% rushing over expectation rate while Etienne’s is 33.3%. Bigsby also has a 5.8 rush EPA while Etienne is at -10.7.
Even if Etienne plays in Week 7, he’s not 100% healthy and will not be getting the bulk of the opportunities. If you have other options, it’s advisable to travel down that path.
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