The 2024 NFL season got off to a wild start loaded with plenty of upsets. Through the first five weeks of the season, the average NFL point spread was just 4.09, which is the slimmest margin ever recorded in the Super Bowl era. The biggest underdog on the spread produced an outright victory in each of the first four weeks. Finally, things seemed to settle down in Week 6.
Favorites of three points or greater went 11-0 last week and were 9-1-1 against the spread. There is a clearer concept of where teams stack up and still plenty of football left to be played. Heading into Week 7, the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears will each be on a bye week.
If you have managed to remain in your survivor pool competitions so far, you deserve a massive tip of the cap. Here is a breakdown of the Week 7 slate and which games have the best chance of allowing you to survive and advance.
1. Buffalo Bills over Tennessee Titans (-9 Spread and -440 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Buffalo Bills enter this matchup with a 4-2 record and deep playoff aspirations. They will turn their attention to the 1-4 Tennessee Titans this week who do not quite have the same outlook. The Bills rank seventh in the NFL in scoring this season and have turned the ball over the fewest times. In contrast, the Titans rank 21st in scoring and have turned the ball over the second-most times in the league.
Tennessee has lost each of its last 10 Sunday road games and failed to cover the spread in the past six of these games. The Bills have won each of their last 12 games following a road win and have covered the spread in their last four games as favorites.
This is a clear case of two teams being on drastically different levels. Buffalo has successfully put itself in the conversation of true Super Bowl contenders and is currently tied for the fifth-best odds to win it all. Tennessee is still searching for a long-term answer at quarterback as Will Levis currently leads the league with seven interceptions while also having fumbled three times. Expect the turnover issues to show face in this matchup and for the Bills to control this game from start to finish.
2. Washington Commanders over Carolina Panthers (-8 Spread and -410 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Perhaps the biggest positive surprise this season has been the Washington Commanders. Headlined by No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels, the Commanders are in the best position they have been as a franchise in decades. Through the opening six weeks, Washington ranks second in scoring and fifth in yards. It holds a 4-2 overall record and currently leads the NFC East in the standings.
In contrast, the Panthers are 1-5 and showing little signs of life. On offense, Carolina ranks 28th in scoring, 25th in yards and 28th in score percentage. Defensively, it ranks dead last in points allowed and 28th in yards given up.
Expect Daniels to have no issue picking apart a poor Panthers defense and for the rookie quarterback to have a chance at the best performance of his NFL career. Carolina saw a spark of life after making the quarterback change, but Andy Dalton has returned to being a player incapable of raising the floor of the incompetent roster around him. Expect this to approach blowout territory rather quickly and the Panthers to never have a true chance in this matchup.
3. Los Angeles Rams over Las Vegas Raiders (-6.5 Spread and -305 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Los Angeles Rams have not gotten off to the start of the season they desired and have their backs against the wall sooner than expected. They enter Week 7 with a 1-4 record and are coming off their bye week. Luckily, there is a great opportunity as they prepare to face off with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Las Vegas enters with a 2-4 record and is coming off back-to-back losses to the Steelers and Broncos. There has been plenty of unnecessary drama surrounding this Raiders team, including Davante Adams being traded to the Jets this week. Overall, the Raiders rank 27th in points and yards produced on offense and 27th in points allowed on defense. The organization elected to bench Gardner Minshew in favor of Aidan O’Connell, but there is a case to be made that this isn’t a leap forward in talent.
Ultimately, it feels as if things are falling apart rather quickly for the Raiders. There needs to be some significant soul searching and roster analysis in the organization, but that will need to wait until the offseason. This is an excellent spot for the Rams to begin their season turnaround. They are a better team than they have played like so far and will take advantage of this opportunity against Las Vegas.
4. Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns (-6 Spread and -258 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Another matchup in which the two teams are trending in opposite directions is set to take place in Cleveland this week. The Browns are just 1-5 to start the season and will continue to be weighed down by the disappointing play from Deshaun Watson. The organization continues to express its belief in Watson despite him looking like just about the worst quarterback of this century.
Looking at the 566 quarterbacks that have thrown at least 100 passes since 2000, Watson ranks 565th in yards per attempt, 565th in yards per dropback and 566th in first-down rate. He has been sacked more than any quarterback in the NFL so far this year and the Browns also decided to trade away their top wide receiver this week by sending Amari Cooper to the Bills.
Simply put, it is impossible to win football games with the level of play Watson is currently producing. You should not be looking to back the Browns in just about any spot until there are signs of a change and this is especially the case considering the top-end ability the Bengals still possess. While Cincinnati’s 2-4 record is not intimidating, it has won nine or more games in each of the last three seasons with the same core in place. Joe Burrow and company have lost some difficult matchups to start the year and will be focused on turning things around. The Bengals are in a great position to continue getting back on the right track and will have a chance to turn this game into a full-scale blowout.
Games to Avoid:
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) vs. New England Patriots (+195 ML)
An ugly matchup is set to take place in the early morning hours and kick off over in England between the Jaguars and Patriots. Both teams enter with a 1-5 record and have frustrating takeaways through the first few weeks.
Jacksonville ranks 22nd in the league in scoring on offense while allowing the second-most points and yards per game. Trevor Lawrence has shown signs of regression and ranks 29th in completion percentage, 12th in yards, 12th in touchdowns and 18th in QB rating. There are issues with the play call and his receivers haven’t done Lawrence any favors in capitalizing on big-play opportunities that he has delivered. The Jaguars were most recently blown out by the Chicago Bears 35-17 last week in England and will hope for a better result in this matchup.
The Patriots turned the offensive keys over to third-overall pick Drake Maye last week for the first time. The rookie showed some flashes throwing for 243 yards, three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. These three touchdowns were more than Jacoby Brissett had thrown across his five starts combined this season. There are some deeper issues with this Patriots team than just the quarterback play, but Maye will be a name to keep an eye on moving forward. Neither of these teams have much reason for optimism on the season and the uncertainty of what Maye can bring to the table has this matchup off my list of options.
Minnesota Vikings (-2) vs. Detroit Lions (+105 ML)
The Minnesota Vikings have been the NFL’s hottest team to start the season. They join the Kansas City Chiefs as the only unbeaten team in the NFL but face a difficult matchup this week against the Lions. Sam Darnold and the rest of the team have shined, but it is fair to question if this is fully sustainable. The Vikings currently rank sixth in scoring and third in points allowed, and Darnold’s stats make a compelling early MVP case thus far.
Detroit suffered a tough loss last week as Aidan Hutchinson had a nasty leg injury, but there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the team. The Lions are 4-1 on the year and are leading the league in scoring. Both these teams have their eyes on winning the NFC North and this game will play a significant role in seeding. Let these two teams battle it out and find a better choice on the slate.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (+130 ML)
The Atlanta Falcons will be looking to extend their winning streak to four games in this matchup with the Seahawks. After a slow start to the season, the Falcons have found their stride with Kirk Cousins. They hold a 4-2 record with Cousins ranking fourth in the NFL in passing yards.
Seattle started the season 3-0 but has dropped the past three games and is looking to stop the bleeding. It feels like a trendy take to believe the Seahawks’ three-game winning streak was an outlier, but don’t rush to that belief just yet. Geno Smith is leading the NFL in passing attempts, completions and yards so far this season as Seattle relies heavily on its passing attack. Atlanta has not particularly shined in its pass defense and this feels like an area that could be exploited. While I still lean toward Atlanta getting the victory, this is a matchup that is more of a toss-up than it is being talked about, which makes me nervous.
Other Week 7 Leans
Since the top Survivor Pool options are mostly chalk picks, here are a few other leans I have if you have utilized the more talented teams already. While it is best when you can use a bad team in a winnable matchup, my belief is not to get too cute in overthinking things, as you never know which week could be your last.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over New York Giants (+140)
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over Miami Dolphins (+136)
Houston Texans (+2.5) over Green Bay Packers (-142)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) over New York Jets (-122)
There’s still time to play in NFL Survivor contests on DraftKings! Click here to get in on the action.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
