I’m honestly curious if as many people will get up at 6:00 a.m. ET to watch Game 2 of the Seoul Series as did for Game 1. I’ll admit, I went back to sleep after a few innings of baseball goodness, but the presence of Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($12,000) might be enough to make me set that alarm again. I’m a sicko.
Let’s dive into this tilt between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $30K K-Pop Fly [$10K to 1st] (SD vs LAD)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Mookie Betts ($14,100 CP) – Betts already appeared to be in midseason form on Opening Day, reaching base three times with two hits and a walk. The former MVP also had an easy stolen base taken away due to umpire’s interference in the first inning, so the full skill-set was on display in Korea. The case for Betts’ viability is pretty simple: He’s always viable. The newly minted shortstop hits atop one of the best lineups in baseball and he was an absolute force in 2023. To wit, Betts’ 167 wRC+ was the fourth best qualified mark in the league, while he was one of only six players to finish with an expected wOBA above .400. Joe Musgrove ($11,000) flaunted some pretty extreme reverse splits last season — more on that below — so RHBs might be the best way to attack the former All-Star.
Jake Cronenworth ($9,900 CP) – I did not expect to be singing the praises of Cronenworth this early into the season, but here we are. Honestly, this has less to do with the man himself and more about his price point. Cronenworth is on the heels of a down year in 2023, yet his career numbers against right-handed pitching remain strong, as the 30-year-old owns a 113 wRC+ within the split. Also, with the loss of Juan Soto in the offseason, Cronenworth now finds himself batting in the three-spot for the Padres, a lone left-handed bat breaking up the team’s barrage of right-handed power. That’s a premium lineup slot and it adds to Cronenworth’s appeal.
FLEX Plays
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($12,000) – I think Yamamoto has to be limited to a FLEX option on this slate. While I don’t want to put too much stock in Spring Training results, the RHP did struggle in his last two outings, getting roughed up by both the Mariners and the White Sox. More importantly, as we saw on Wednesday morning, these starters aren’t fully built up yet and that limits their upside. Both Tyler Glasnow and Yu Darvish were pulled after throwing fewer than 80 pitches, and while Yamamoto did reach 73 pitches back on March 13, he’s still likely looking at a limited workload. That said, Yamamoto also racked up 14 strikeouts in his 9.2 innings in the Cactus League. His potential is obvious and there’s no way I’m condoning a full fade. I’m just not sure I’d go so far as to drop $18K on him in the Captain’s slot.
Gavin Lux ($5,400) – I’ll admit it: I’m a sucker for Lux’s upside. Lux is healthy again after missing all of last season with knee issue and he appears to be the Dodgers’ go-to option at second base when the team is facing a right-handed pitcher. It makes sense. Not only does the 26-year-old still carry a ton of prospect pedigree, but Lux slashed .280/.351/.413 with a 118 wRC+ in his 362 plate appearances against RHPs back in 2022. He’s the cheapest way to some exposure to Los Angeles’ offense and he’s hitting in front of Betts, Shohei Ohtani ($9,200) and Freddie Freeman ($9,000) as soon as the lineup turns over. What’s not to like?
Fades
Max Muncy ($7,800) – As mentioned above, Musgrove was very effective against left-handed hitters in 2023. How effective? Well, of the 99 pitchers who faced at least 200 LHBs, Musgrove’s .260 xwOBA within the split was the lowest mark in baseball. In more layman’s terms, lefties hit .215 off of Musgrove, while righties hit .282. It was a pretty notable disparity. Muncy actually has fantastic career numbers off of Musgrove, but I’ll side with the larger, more recent trend. Plus, as a “three true outcomes” archetype, Muncy’s value doesn’t always translate to DFS. Take Wednesday morning as a perfect example. In his five plate appearances, Muncy managed just a single batted ball event. In general, I’d like more balls in play.
THE OUTCOME
The Dodgers are once again favored in Korea, and while I don’t disagree, I do think there’s some value with Musgrove and the Padres moneyline. While I anticipate Yamamoto being quite good this season, this is his first-career MLB start, whereas Musgrove has a proven track record of success at this level. Give me San Diego at plus-money.
Final Score: San Diego 4, Los Angeles 3
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $30K K-Pop Fly [$10K to 1st] (SD vs LAD)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
