After briefly easing his way into NBA basketball last season, Victor Wembanyama put the league on notice as his rookie season progressed. I think a lot of us, myself included, are expecting a jump from Wemby entering his second season, which is scary to even consider how good he ultimately could be. But bettors might be going about betting on Wembanyama all wrong.
As of October 15, Wemby is the most bet player on DraftKings Sportsbook to win Most Valuable Player, Most Improved Player and Defensive Player of the Year (a market in which he is an absurd -170 odds on favorite in). The awards are great, but they might take some time to come. What I do like, is that San Antonio made a clear effort to surround Wembanyama and some other core young pieces with veteran leadership. Let’s breakdown what that could mean for the Spurs this season.
San Antonio Spurs OVER 36.5 Wins (-110) — 1-unit
San Antonio Spurs To Make Playoffs: YES (+380) — 0.25-units
The Spurs ended last season with just a 22-60 record, so we’re talking about making a pretty big jump here to get to 37 wins and flirt with the postseason. But San Antonio made clear progress as the season went on, and was a decent team through the last month-plus of the season — 9-10 over the final 19 games. That clip that the Spurs played the final quarter of their season at would be good enough to cash the over on this season’s win total. But given the development and additions, the team on the floor to begin this season should far exceed what the roster was capable of at the end of last season.
Let’s start with the obvious centerpiece in Wembanyama. He continued to improve at a terrifying rate throughout his rookie season. Ultimately, he finished with averages of 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks and 1.2 steals, and had a realistic case for DPOY. A jump to MVP seems extreme, especially because the Spurs won’t be among the elite of the NBA like Boston, Oklahoma City, Denver, etc. But with a full season under his belt, there will be a jump. It’s tough to win games as the best player on your team as a rookie, but Wembanyama should learn to win this season, making the Spurs exponentially better.
Of course, one man cannot do this alone, and the Spurs have done a great job of building a roster that can make noise in the Western Conference. Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan are all quality young players in the league to build around when you have a superstar prospect — not to mention, No. 4 overall pick Stephon Castle has a ton of upside. But what the team needed to help take the next steps was veteran leadership, which has been added.
That’s where Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes come in. Rag on CP all you want, but the Golden State situation clearly wasn’t right for him. He was chasing a ring, but the fit was awful. Now Paul gets to play in a situation he should thrive. Gregg Popovich will toss him the keys to the offense and let him go. Has that style proven capable of winning a championship? Nope. But it certainly can get you to a .500 season and maybe a playoff birth. Paul played the fewest minutes of his career with the Warriors, leaving something in the tank for what could be his final go with the Spurs.
Barnes brings another rock solid professional to the roster. He’s started all 82 games in consecutive seasons for the Kings. He’s won a title with the Warriors. Barnes can knock down shots, play both sides of the ball, and knows exactly how to play alongside superstars. Feels like a perfect fit.
Feels like San Antonio has done its part in terms of putting the pieces in place to improve off that 9-10 finish to the season. I’m expecting to see that play out in 2024-25, with the potential to even see the Spurs threaten to make the postseason.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
