There are few skill position groups in the NFL as underwhelming from a fantasy perspective as the Broncos. Yet, an early-week island game tends to turn the attention of the football world to even the darkest places. So, let’s break down the viability of one of Denver’s most notable names: Javonte Williams.
Let’s start with the positives. Well… Positive. Williams is on the field a lot for a modern running back. For the season as a whole, Williams has logged just under 60% of the Broncos’ offensive snaps and, in the last three weeks, he’s seen his snap share rise from 57.4% to 63.5% to 67.3% last Sunday against the Chargers. Because of this role, Williams has received 53.6% of Denver’s running back carries through six games, while his 26 targets actually rank second on the team.
However, this hasn’t translated to any actual fantasy success. This is a classic case of what we like to call empty volume. Williams has only exceeded 12.0 PPR fantasy points in a start once in 2024 and that was in a soft matchup versus Las Vegas and almost entirely due to a season-high 26-yard reception. Other than that, he’s been unreliable.
A lot of the reasons that Williams has struggled as a fantasy asset are completely outside his control. First and foremost, the Broncos aren’t exactly a fantasy wonderland, as the squad is averaging a paltry 18.7 points per game. Also, the few touchdowns that have been scored have often been vultured from the running back room entirely. Denver has four rushing scores this season and Bo Nix has three of them. Heck, Nix is currently accounting for 45.0% of the Broncos’ red zone rushing attempts. Think of the rookie as a poor man’s Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen. A really, really poor man.
As it stands, Williams’ sheer volume is still likely enough that he has to be at least a FLEX consideration in most leagues that are 12 teams or deeper — especially PPR formats. A matchup with the Saints is nice, too, as New Orleans has surrendered the seventh-most FPTS per game to opposing RBs and 168.0 opponent rushing yards the past three weeks. Don’t get your hopes too high, though. Williams is a high-floor asset with a low-ceiling.
Start or Sit Javonte Williams? Start.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
