The bravest of we offseason sleeper spelunkers whispered Kimani Vidal’s names in old oaken pubs, like we were scrabbling together a scrum in the name of revolution. There was, we felt, fantasy football breakout potential. A potential home run on waivers. An end run, even, to be had here, in this sixth-round rookie out of Troy in the new Jim Harbaugh system. Given the proper pathways—again, detailed only in the most wishful of hypotheticals—there could even be a path to an unprecedented, league-winning run.
I digress! We all get overexcited (and, most likely, overserved) in old oaken pubs. League-winning potential for Kimani Vidal is a little much, but I know I’m not the only one on Sunday who saw #30 in electric blue catching a touchdown pass on a wheel route and thought: Wait—Austin Ekeler? And maybe there’s more to it than the obvious physical comparisons between them both.
As far as Vidal’s reality within this Charger system, it’s been a bit more straightforward—and, thus, more difficult—path to volume than the wistful pub smoke-blowing. GM Joe Horitz and HC Jim Harbaugh were, obviously, among the football analysts who were high on Vidal in the draft. The Chargers snagged him in the sixth round, and they believe they got a steal. But Vidal was inactive (coach’s decision) for the first five weeks of the season.
Until, that is, last week’s game against the Broncos, before which the Chargers placed Gus Edwards (ankle) on IR and subsequently elevated Vidal to the 53-man roster. The rest is history.
We all remember Kareem Hunt’s breakout rookie year. Todd Gurley’s rookie year after he came back from the ACL and ran his way into Jeff Fisher history. A 2023 Keaton Mitchell, if you will. What if what we’re looking at here with Vidal is something of the same caliber?
Analysis
According to PlayerProfiler, Vidal’s aggregate athleticism score ranks ninth-overall among the 22 running backs selected in the 2024 draft. His combine grades shook out as followed, re. percentiles:
- 40-yard dash: 4.46 (87th percentile)
- Speed score: 107.7 (88th percentile)
- Burst score: 123.8 (77th percentile)
- Agility score: 11.16 (79th percentile)
It’s one of the more balanced rookie portfolios I’ve seen with regards to workout grades. Vidal falls firmly, on average, in the 83rd percentile in terms of his workout metrics.
For the record, all of these percentiles and scores are leaps-and-bounds higher than Kareem Hunt’s from his breakout 2017 year. Hunt scored in the 40th, 46th, 67th, and 17th percentile in the above scores, respectively. Of course, his path to fantasy stardom was through volume, but he showed plenty of explosiveness in 2017.
Vidal’s rookie profile grades more similarly to Mitchell’s, though Mitchell’s 40-yard dash reached the 99th percentile, despite, somehow, a paltry speed score. And Vidal is certainly more balanced than Gurley, though Gurley’s speed score in the 92nd percentile drew comparisons to LaDanian Tomlinson. A more solid comp for Vidal would be somewhere in the Austin Ekeler/Isiah Pacheco area of the running back spectrum.
My colleague Zach Thompson and I are both big fans of Vidal (sleeper spelunkers, both), and he wrote about Vidal’s potential snap volume and college pedigree over the weekend. This would have been just after the Gus Edwards IR announcement:
Vidal slid to the sixth round in last year’s draft but landed in a great spot in this run-heavy attack. While Dobbins will likely continue to get most of the work, Vidal could mix in since Edwards was playing about 25%-45% of snaps depending on the week.
The Chargers have a history of developing running backs from smaller schools, like Austin Ekeler from Western Colorado. Vidal was an absolute workhorse the past few seasons for Troy, where he was a three-year starter and set pretty much all the school records while scoring 34 touchdowns. Last year, he had seven games with at least 100 yards and totaled 1,661 yards on 297 carries, finishing with the second-most rushing yards in the country.
This is all to say that Vidal’s college resumé is a bit more like Hunt’s in terms of his out-of-this-world, record-breaking production. That never translates directly to the NFL, but I don’t think we’re going to see Vidal cede many touches to Hassan Haskins in this Chargers offense anymore. He’s the clear RB2 behind Dobbins, and, for now, we love that. It frees Harbaugh and Herbert up to shift Vidal around the formation, read defenses pre-snap, and then use the rookie’s explosiveness in both running and passing situations for high-value touches. See: wheel route touchdown from Week 6.
In that game against the Broncos, Vidal ran eight routes compared to Dobbins’s 14. Vidal saw 18 offensive snaps to Hassan Haskins’s three. That’s good for a 24.0% snap percentage in his first game for Vidal. That’s only going to rise.
Lest we not forget (soft analysis warning!): the Harbaughs are brothers, and John has shown an incredible ability to get the most out of his role-playing running backs. I’m not sure we can say Jim Harbaugh is any worse at that, seeing his pedigree for the ground game at Michigan, and his tenure with the 49ers.
NFL teams crib from each other all the time. Caleb Williams’s first touchdown pass to Cole Kmet on a tricksy (not quite full-trick) play in London was one Jordan Love and the Packers used in Week 5 to deliver a touchdown to Tucker Kraft. I’m just not going to whatsoever count out that Jim Harbaugh on the Chargers is going to manufacture ways to, quite literally, maximize Vidal’s value the rest of the season in the same way his brother on the east coast is maximizing Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell.
Especially with the Chargers tied for second-place in the AFC West, during a year when it feels like standings are shakier than ever. There’s just too much potential explosiveness here to ignore. Tyrone Tracy will get his volume. Sean Tucker might totally fade. Isaac Guerendo will probably put up serviceable numbers.
But Vidal? He’s lightning. Pun all-the-way intended.
Bottom Line
Vidal’s performance against the Broncos has earned him more reps. J.K. Dobbins is the lead-dog in that backfield right now, and I don’t expect that to change. But I don’t see any reason Vidal doesn’t start seeing four-to-five targets per game, and somewhere in the ballpark of six-to-eight carries.
I’d expect his snap percentage to creep up more toward that 30-35% range Zach mentioned in his analysis of Vidal. Make no mistake: Vidal is going to be a difference-maker in this offense. His efficiency per touch is going to skyrocket, with regards to team value and, hopefully, fantasy value.
Vidal is about as good a bet out there, right now, besides maybe Tyrone Tracey Jr. and Bucky Irving, to be 2024’s most materially-dominant breakout running back. Prioritize him on waivers this week.
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