The New York Jets made the mid-season decision to fire head coach Robert Saleh following an underwhelming start. In the first game with interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich in charge, the Jets will face off with the Buffalo Bills in primetime.
Buffalo enters with a 3-2 record, but are coming off back-to-back losses. The Jets are 2-3 and also have lost their past two games. Each of these teams holds playoff aspirations, so the outcome of this AFC East matchup could prove important at the season’s conclusion.
The Bills enter the matchup as 1.5-point favorites and -122 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jets are considered +102 underdogs on the moneyline and the over/under sits at 41.5 points in the matchup. Looking deeper than just the game result or scoring total, here are four player props I like for the Week 6 finale.
Breece Hall Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
There were high expectations for Breece Hall entering the season, but through the opening five weeks, Hall has not gotten off to the start he or the team desired. Overall, he has rushed the ball 65 times for 197 yards and two rushing touchdowns. He was limited to just 23 rushing yards last week and only four rushing yards the week prior.
One of the expected changes brought on by the Jets’ coaching swap is a renewed commitment to the running game. So far this season, New York ranks 27th in rush attempts, 30th in rushing yards, 24th in rushing touchdowns, and 31st in net yards per rush attempt. The Bills provide a great chance for the Jets to get on the right track as they rank 26th in rushing defense thus far this season.
Hall is a talented running back who has not played his best football yet. He has eclipsed 59.5 rushing yards once already this season, but Hall has not logged more than 16 carries in a game so far and was limited to nine and 10 carries the past two weeks. Expect the renewed commitment to the run game to result in expanded opportunities and for the running back to tally at least 60 yards on the ground.
Allen Lazard Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall headline the offensive attack, Allen Lazard has quietly been one of the more productive wide receivers in the NFL so far this year. Through the opening five weeks, he has tallied 20 receptions for 240 yards and four touchdowns. Lazard had his best years in Green Bay playing alongside Aaron Rodgers and their chemistry has been clear once again in New York.
Looking at his body of work thus far, Lazard has eclipsed 35.5 yards through the air in three of the first five games. His best performance was in Week 1 when Lazard tallied 89 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Bills’ defense has not stood out this season and ranks 21st in total yards allowed, 13th in passing yards allowed, and 14th in passing touchdowns allowed.
Expect Lazard to remain a significant part of the Jets’ offense for the remainder of the season. While the lines are not quite indicating this yet, 35.5 receiving yards is too low of a total for a guy who has been targeted at least three times in every game and nine times in two separate games. Rodgers is not afraid to attempt big plays with Lazard and he can clear this total with just one catch. One way or another, feel confident in him being involved in the offense and hitting at least 36 yards through the air.
Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (+145)
Josh Allen was tied for second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season with 15 on the year. He has tallied 55 rushing touchdowns in his career and has produced an average of nine rushing touchdowns per year. He has recorded at least six touchdowns with his legs every season as a starter.
After starting the season with two rushing touchdowns in Week 1, Allen has been surprisingly quiet with his rushing production. He has not run the ball more than six times in a game since the opening contest and has not scored a rushing touchdown in the past four weeks.
Allen is due to break this streak at some point. The Monday Night Football matchup is as good of an opportunity as ever. Getting +145 odds for an anytime touchdown is great value for a player who makes regular trips to the end zone like Allen. Expect the Wyoming product to utilize his 6-foot-5 frame around the goal line and watch for these odds to shrink in the coming weeks as he gets back on track. His body of work speaks for itself, so I am buying that he begins the turnaround tonight.
Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid to Combine for 100+ Receiving Yards (+160)
One injury status to keep an eye on leading up to the matchup is that of Khalil Shakir. The Bills’ leading receiver will be a game-time decision with an ankle injury which made him a limited participant at practice this week. If Shakir is unable to go, this is tremendous value, but I feel confident regardless.
Keon Coleman was selected with the 33rd overall pick in this year’s draft and is second on the team in receiving production thus far. The rookie is a big play weapon who is capable of breaking free for a massive gain on any touch, and he’ll be given a few opportunities to do just this. Dalton Kincaid does not have the same breakaway ability, but he’s a reliable tight end Allen counts on often. He leads the team in targets and seven of his 15 receptions this year have resulted in first downs.
Buffalo leans on an offensive attack that involves spreading the ball around without counting on a true WR1. Both Coleman and Kincaid will be in the mix for production and would benefit from Shakir being out or limited. Expect Kincaid to chip away at this total throughout the game and for Coleman to have a few chances at breaking big plays. Count on their combined total to eclipse 100 receiving yards and for each to be a key part of the overall offensive production.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
