What a long and winding road it’s been. Think back to where we were seven months ago. With these two teams, the Dodgers and the Padres, kicking off the regular season in the wee hours of the morning in Korea. Now, one of these squads will finish the other’s campaign. The symmetry is sort of beautiful, right?
It’s every sports fan’s favorite thing: A winner-takes-all Game 5. Let’s break it down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (SD @ LAD)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Shohei Ohtani ($15,000 CP) – Ohtani’s first taste of the postseason has been alright. The MVP frontrunner hit a three-run home run in his first plate appearance of Game 1, yet Ohtani is only 3-for-15 (.200) with seven strikeouts since that herculean moment. Still, you get the feeling that the 30-year-old has something special saved for this contest — particularly with Yu Darvish ($10,800) on the mound for the Padres. Ohtani’s numbers against RHPs during the regular season were comical. In 482 PAs within the split, Ohtani slashed .322/.411/.717 with a .395 ISO and a 202 wRC+. It’s the power that puts Ohtani among the elite hitters in the sport and it’s that same power that should make Darvish nervous on Friday. While the veteran right-hander has looked good since returning from the IL, the lone flaw has been keeping the ball in the park. To wit, in Darvish’s final five starts of 2024, he surrendered 2.13 opponent long balls per nine. Not ideal.
UTIL Plays
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($11,000) – Like the aforementioned Darvish, Yamamoto suffered a mid-season injury and had to work his way back to full-strength in September. Unlike Darvish, Yamamoto was absolutely crushed in his prior start in this series, conceding five earned runs in just three innings back in Game 1. You’ll also likely remember that Yamamoto lasted only a single inning in his Dodgers’ debut in Seoul to start 2024, meaning he’s had very little success versus the Padres in his brief MLB career. Let people hold that against him. I’ll bank on the upside. Yamamoto pitched to a 2.61 FIP with a 28.5% strikeout rate during the regular season. He’s one of the most talented pitchers in baseball. Full stop. I believe the $325 million man will come through in the clutch.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($9,400) – You can not ask for a better playoff run than Tatis Jr. is currently on. It’s a small sample of just 26 plate appearances, but the 25-year-old is 11-for-22 (.500) with four home runs and a 366 wRC+. I’d say that’s some pretty nice production when it matters most. Speaking of small samples, here’s another. Including the playoffs, Tatis Jr. has reached base in all six career plate appearances he’s made versus Yamamoto. Two singles, two doubles and two walks. Yamamoto did post reverse-splits in his first MLB campaign. It seems like most of the damage he gave up to RHBs was specifically Tatis.
Gavin Lux ($5,600) – Lux’s bat cooled down in September, but let us not forget the amazing second-half that the former top prospect put together. Heck, let’s not overlook the amazing series he’s having right in front of our eyes. Through four games, Lux has five hits, including a two-run home run on Wednesday. That lines up with the infielder’s production in the season’s final three months, as Lux slashed .304/.390/.508 with a .387 wOBA and a 152 wRC+ following the All-Star break. That’s not generally the type of offensive potential you find priced this close to $5K on a Showdown slate. Take advantage.
Fades
Freddie Freeman ($8,000) – I just can’t do it. I can’t bank on Freeman having his Kirk Gibson moment on one leg. An ankle injury kept the All-Star out of the Dodgers’ lineup in Game 4 and, though he is expected to play on Friday, I can’t imagine 48 hours of healing has changed much. Let’s not forget that Freeman isn’t having the best second-half of his season to begin with. In fact, since the All-Star break, the 35-year-old is hitting just .266 with a .181 ISO. Those aren’t baaaaaaaad numbers, they simply aren’t at Freeman’s usual standard. I know you’ll hear about Freeman’s success against Darvish. Three home runs and an .868 OPS in their careers. It doesn’t matter. I don’t think Freeman is going to be right in this spot.
THE OUTCOME
Call me crazy, but Los Angeles staving off elimination with a bullpen game on Wednesday feels like a demon that’s been vanquished. A monkey off the back, if you will. This organization spent a lot of money on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto this offseason and, in Game 5, I think those investments pay off.
Final Score: Dodgers 5, Padres 3
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (SD @ LAD)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
