Last season, the New York Jets had the most anemic offense, as they scored a league-low 22 touchdowns. But Aaron Rodgers was lost for the season in the first game and New York had to trot out the three-headed monster of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle at quarterback. Yuck.
But there was tremendous optimism heading into 2024, as a healthy Rodgers portended for fireworks in the Big Apple. As a result, RB Breece Hall was being selected in the middle of the first round in drafts, while WR Garrett Wilson was at the 1/2 turn.
Things have been anything but happy to start the season for the Jets. While they are not as moribund on offense compared to last season, sitting in the middle of the pack for touchdowns scored, the rushing attack has the seventh-lowest success rate while the passing attack has the 11th-lowest total EPA.
With the team sitting at 2-3 and having failed to live up to lofty expectations, ownership surprisingly decided to make some changes at top. Out is head coach Robert Saleh, while offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was relinquished of play-calling duties, and passing-game coordinator/quarterbacks coach Todd Downing will now be assuming those responsibilities.
Will it even matter?
Hackett has been an offensive coordinator for 10 years in the NFL. During that span, he guided three of those teams to Top 10 finishes in points scored. Once with Blake Bortles at quarterback, which should automatically qualify him for the Hall of Fame, and the other two with Aaron Rodgers.
Here’s the thing, though. Rodgers is now over 40-years-old and coming off an Achilles injury. The 6.0 yards per attempt is his lowest since he’s been a starter, and the total EPA is a career-low, as well. Throughout his career, Rodgers had a quarterback rating over 100 for both play action and non-play action passes. This season? 85.8 rating on straight drop backs, which crumbles to 66.2 on play action. Without pressure? A career 108.3 rating. This season that number is at 86.2. Under pressure? A career 73.0 mark compared to 65.1 so far this season.
The one number that caught my eye, though, is Rodgers’ rating “in rhythm (2.5-4 seconds)” on drop backs. Rodgers has a career 105.8 mark, but it’s only 64.9 this season. Who leads the team in targets by a wide margin? Garrett Wilson with 56. My thinking is that Rodgers and Wilson are still learning the nuances of each other since they’ve only played five games together.
Todd Downing is the new play-caller and he’s been an offensive coordinator three years in the NFL. Looking at his brief history doesn’t spark any hopes for optimism, as he led teams to 23rd, 15th and 28th finishes in points. One year was in Oakland with Derek Carr at quarterback. The other two seasons were in Tennessee with Derrick Henry and a run-focused attack.
The Jets are currently third in passing rate. I’m thinking that comes down and New York becomes more balanced. While the volume could decrease, that could see an uptick in efficiency.
My main thesis is this, though. I think it’s taking more than a minute for Rodgers to get back up to playing speed physically while his connection with Wilson is still a work in progress. Let’s remember that it’s only been five weeks. As the schedule advances, I think the duo will start living up to some of the preseason expectations. The funny thing is that Downing could get some of the credit, but I think it was just something that was going to naturally happen with time.
As for Week 6, I have my doubts that this is game the duo breaks out, as the path of least resistance against the Bills is via the ground and I believe the Jets become a little more balanced. In addition, the Buffalo pass defense is fifth-best in pass EPA.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
