With the Phillies getting eliminated on Wednesday, we’re down to just seven teams remaining in the MLB playoffs. After tonight’s action? That could be as few as five.
Both the Guardians and the Royals have their backs up against the wall in a Game 4 on Thursday. Let’s break down this do-or-die slate and find some studs and values on the diamond.
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PITCHER
Stud
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, $8,300 – While I understand that Cole had a poor outing in Game 1 of this series, I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around his price tag in Game 4. He should be the most expensive pitcher on this slate. No question. Injuries turned the first-half of Cole’s regular season into a nightmare, yet the RHP looked like himself heading into the postseason. To wit, in his final 10 starts of 2024, Cole pitched to a 2.25 ERA with a 2.62 FIP and a 26.0% strikeout rate. This is a Royals team that mustered a league-worst 61 wRC+ in September. Even with Vinnie Pasquantino ($3,900) back in the mix, this is not a matchup to fear.
INFIELD
Stud
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, $6,200 – Ramirez does not yet have a hit in this series, but I have to believe that the All-Star comes up clutch in a must-win environment on Thursday. He’s just too good not to. Ramirez is also the perfect asset to use against the Tigers’ “chaos” pitching tactics, as he’s a switch-hitter that doesn’t have a weak side of the plate. For his career, Ramirez has an .851 OPS against southpaws and an .858 OPS against RHPs. In 2024 specifically, Ramirez posted a 141 wRC+ with 39 home runs and 41 stolen bases. He can do it all.
Stud
Jazz Chisholm, New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, $4,800 – Another player that can affect the game both in the batter’s box and on the base paths. As you would expect from a left-handed hitter, Chisholm was at his best in 2024 when batting against right-handed opponents, registering a .201 ISO and a 115 wRC+ within the split. Chisholm was booed following every at-bat in Game 3. You have to feel like the 26-year-old really wants to stick it to the fans at Kauffman Stadium on Thursday. If there’s one thing we know about Jazz, it’s that he’s a showman.
Value
Colt Keith, Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians, $3,200 – Keith finally picked up his first hit of the postseason on Wednesday and I’m hoping that propels the rookie into a big performance in Game 4. It’s not like Keith doesn’t have some track record of success at the MLB level, either. If you remove a terribly slow start in April, Keith hit .282 with a 115 wRC+ in 2024. Not bad for a 23-year-old. LHBs are also definitely the way to attack Tanner Bibee ($8,700). While the RHP held opposing right-handed hitters to an impressive .190/.241/.338 slash line during the regular season, lefties had far more success, registering a .780 OPS.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians, $4,400 – There’s pros and cons to putting Carpenter into your lineups. On the positive end of the spectrum, Carpenter is an absolute animal against right-handed pitching, sporting a .305 average and a .326 ISO within the split. That equates out to an eye-popping 176 wRC+. On the negative side of things, there’s almost a 100% certainty that Carpenter will be pinch-hit for when the Guardians turn to a left-handed reliever. Still, Carpenter should get two or three plate appearances against Bibee to start the game. In their careers, Carpenter is 3-for-6 off the RHP with a home run and a double.
Value
Alex Verdugo, New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, $3,000 – Small slates will make us do crazy things. There really isn’t a statistical case for Verdugo’s viability, but the veteran does have three hits in the series and he is drawing an opposite-hand matchup in the form of Michael Wacha ($7,800). To be honest, this is simply about cost. Verdugo is the cheapest part of a Yankees stack and New York has almost twice as much run-scoring potential as any other team on Thursday. If you need the salary relief — he’s there.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
