We have a new event scheduled for this week with the Black Desert Championship. Held at Black Desert Resort in Ivins, Utah, this tournament is set to play as the third event of the fall swing and will introduce players to Black Desert Resort, a Tom Weiskopf-designed course that looks like it will have many similarities to Weiskopf’s other designs on the PGA –– TPC Craig Ranch and TPC Scottsdale.
Here are a few more notes about the course before we get into the picks for this week.
First, the venue looks like it will have oversized fairways that run close to 30 yards wide and also lack traditional rough as it weaves through naturally forming lava rock (hence, Black Desert). The open concept should make off-the-tee play simple this week and help the less advantaged in that area. Second, the greens here are oversized, much like they are at TPC Scottsdale and Craig Ranch. Good short to mid-iron play will be needed to hit it close at this venue as the green tiers will leave mishit balls with long birdie putts or worse.
I’m focusing on players who have shown good recent form with their mid-irons, but with a full slate of first-round offerings for this week, am also factoring in recent form in birdie or better percentage and early round performance.
Let’s get to the picks and see what stands out for Round 1 at Black Desert.
Doug Ghim More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
Ghim’s coming off a Top-33 finish from last week at the Sanderson Farms, and while that doesn’t sound overly intriguing, as far as Top-33 finishes go, it was about as solid as it gets. He gained over 5.0 strokes from tee to green and showed continued improvement around the greens. Ghim’s a fantastic ball striker who ranks first in proximity from 150-175 yards and is also 2nd in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds. Despite losing 1.7 strokes putting last week, he still managed to make five or more birdies in all four of his rounds, a result which emphasizes just how consistent he is on a round-to-round basis with his ball-striking. He’s also been a great starter and has now shot under par in 17 of his last 20 Thursday/Friday rounds while in competition, so he rarely comes out with a complete dud to start an event. Ghim’s also had success at Tom Weiskopf venues in the past (Top-12 at Scottsdale in February), so I could see him taking to this venue from the get-go. I’m bullish on him for a big finish this week and for him to cash the more than on his 4.5 birdie or better total for us in Round 1.
Daniel Berger More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
After a summer slump, Berger showed up last week in Jackson, popping for two opening-round 65’s and making 25 birdies for the week. Despite some up-and-down play over the summer, the American is still 23rd in Birdie or Better percentage over the last 24 rounds of play and has had plenty of past success on Tom Weiskopf designs, posting a Top-3 finish from at the Byron Nelson back in 2021, and multiple Top-10 finishes at TPC Scottsdale. Just given how solid a par 4 player he tends to be, and how well he hits his mid-irons, I think Berger should once again find plenty of birdie opportunities on the par 4s this week, which should give him a great shot at hitting for five or more birdies in Round 1. He managed to go for five or more birdies in each of his four rounds played in Jackson last week, and with the weather looking ideal for Round 1, should have a great shot at continuing that streak into this week at Black Desert.
Andrew Novak Less Than 68.5 Strokes
Novak has played solid golf over the last six months. The 29-year-old has just one missed cut on his resume since April and heads into this week off a Top-24 last week in Jackson, a result he can no doubt build off of as he goes searching for his first career PGA win. While he’s a decent bridie maker and ranks 21st in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds, Novak is also great at maintaining his scores as he ranks 5th in bogey avoidance. This kind of consistency has led to tons of fast starts and he heads into this week’s event having shot 2-under or better in six of his last seven opening rounds on the PGA TOUR. With Black Desert likely to play slightly easier than an average PGA setup, he makes plenty of sense to use as a Pick6 target in Round 1 with the optimal play being to take the less than on his 68.5 stroke total.
Stephan Jaeger More Than 68.5 Strokes
Jaeger is coming into this week’s event off a Top-23 finish in Jackson, his best result since last June. However, his performance last week did feel like a bit of smoke and mirrors, as his Top-25 finish was made while losing 3.2 strokes on approach, and gaining 5.1 strokes with his putter. That’s generally not a recipe for long-term success and Jaeger has struggled with his iron play for some time now, having lost strokes on approach in six straight PGA starts entering this week. With larger bentgrass greens in play, his lack of control is going to make getting his approaches close tough and if he regresses at all with the putter he’ll undoubtedly have issues getting to three under or better for any of his rounds. If he keeps outperforming on the greens and beats us with the putter, that’s a result I can live with, but his ball-striking numbers suggest that fading a low score from him in Round 1 is the better play.
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