Week 5 will mark the first round of teams receiving bye weeks, which thins out the NFL slate slightly. However, there is still plenty of quality football to be played, and Sunday night will conclude with an intriguing matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers enter with a 3-1 record while the Cowboys are 2-2 through the opening four weeks. Both teams still have plenty to prove this season and questions to address internally. Justin Fields remains the starter for the Steelers while Russell Wilson’s calf injury continues to be bothersome. This will also be arguably the toughest test that each of these teams has faced thus far, especially when factoring in the primetime setting.
The Steelers enter the matchup as 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. Dallas is +120 on the moneyline while the game total sits at 43.5 points. Here are four player props I like for the primetime thriller.
Justin Fields Over 239.5 Passing & Rushing Yards (-115 Odds)
The Steelers made two splashes in the quarterback market this offseason adding both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to the roster. The quarterback competition was (seemingly) decided by injury as Wilson missed the first four weeks of the season due to a calf injury he sustained. This has opened the door for Fields to earn the starting quarterback job and he has made the most of this opportunity thus far. Through the opening four weeks of the season, Fields has completed 70.6% of his passes, thrown for 830 yards and three touchdowns while adding 145 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Heading into this matchup with the Cowboys, Fields will look to keep things rolling. Through the first four weeks of the season, Dallas ranks 27th in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed. Deshaun Watson is the only quarterback to be held under 243 combined passing and rushing yards so far this season against Dallas. Just last week Daniel Jones was able to throw for 281 yards against this Cowboys team.
The Steelers have been very calculated in what they have put on Fields’ plate to start the year. He has been limited to 23 or fewer passing attempts in two of the four games while coach Mike Tomlin has allowed him the opportunity to use his legs at least six times in every game. Fields is coming off his best statistical game as he threw for 312 yards while adding 55 rushing yards last week against the Colts. Dallas’ defense has holes that Fields will be able to exploit and the quarterback will be at the center of the team’s production. Expect him to continue providing evidence for why he should remain the starting quarterback and for Fields to eclipse 240 combined passing and rushing yards in this matchup.
Dak Prescott Under 241.5 Passing Yards (-115 Odds)
Looking at the other quarterback and defensive matchup, there is not as friendly of an opportunity. Dak Prescott has thrown for over 1,000 yards already this season and added six touchdowns. However, this Steelers defense will provide him with his most difficult test yet.
Through the opening four weeks, Pittsburgh has allowed the second-fewest points and fourth-fewest yards. The Steelers are forcing turnovers at the ninth-best rate and also have the third-best score percentage allowed. T.J. Watt commands a massive amount of attention from the offensive line and will speed up his time in the pocket regularly in this matchup. Prescott is coming off a game against the Browns who have a similarly constructed defense. He was held to just 179 passing yards and one touchdown in that matchup.
On top of this, the Steelers make a conscious effort to control the tempo of play. Through the opening four weeks, they rank second in the NFL in time of possession, controlling the ball for an average game time of 33:13. Mike Tomlin is content with keeping things a defensive battle and will not be sped up from this. With Prescott’s opportunity set to be limited and the Steelers’ defense already looking so dominant, expect him to fail to reach 241.5 passing yards in this game.
Justin Fields Anytime TD (+140 Odds)
Through the first four weeks of the season, Justin Fields has already tallied three touchdowns with his legs. Dual-threat quarterbacks are especially dynamic in the red zone and this has proven to be the case with Fields. He has carried the ball 38 times already this season, which has led to 145 yards in addition to the three scores. When looking at red-zone opportunities, Fields has carried the ball 11 times, which trails only Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels among quarterbacks this season.
Getting +140 odds for an anytime touchdown for Fields is terrific value. Expect him to emerge as one of the touchdown leaders this season as a whole if he remains an every-week starter. Looking at last year, Hurts and Josh Allen were tied for second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 15. Fields is on pace for a similar level of production and is on an offense that will continue to provide him with these chances. Monitor this bet weekly and feel good about it against a Dallas defense that ranks 27th in scoring so far this year.
Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+225 Odds)
There are high hopes for Jake Ferguson as he settles into his third season in the NFL. The Wisconsin product took a significant stride forward last season, recording 761 yards and five touchdowns. However, he has not gotten off to the start that he and the Cowboys desired this year. Ferguson suffered a knee injury in the opening game, which forced him to miss Week 2. He has returned for the past two games but still has yet to make his way into the end zone for the first time.
Heading into this week, expect a more significant target share to be sent in Ferguson’s direction. CeeDee Lamb has been heavily relied on in the offense. He has been targeted 32 times so far, which he has converted into 20 catches, 316 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. Even after missing a game, Ferguson ranks second on the Cowboys with 23 targets and 16 catches this season. Looking beyond this, Brandin Cooks is tied for the third-most targets on the team. However, he was placed on IR this week and will miss at least the next four games.
While Ferguson should expect an uptick in targets across the board, he will be most valuable in the red zone. The tight end has a massive 6-foot-5 frame and a catch radius to match this. Expect him to see targets on each red-zone drive and for Ferguson to get back on track this season. The +225 odds are great value for one of the top weapons on the Dallas roster. While the Pittsburgh defense is impressive, it will not hold the Cowboys scoreless, so expect Ferguson to have a few chances in this matchup.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
