Let me paint a word picture. There we all were on Tuesday morning earlier this week, not thinking at all about the Patriots, because why would we? Through four games, New England ranked dead-last in yards per contest (238.8) and 31st in points per contest (13.0), with only the lowly Dolphins keeping it from the bottom. From a fantasy perspective, the Patriots were a very easy team to ignore. Then this happened:
Fantasy football is nothing if not a hobby based primarily around finding touches at the running back position on the waiver wire, so this actually made some waves. Could Antonio Gibson actually start over Rhamondre Stevenson? More importantly: Does it matter?
Let’s start with the first question. Stevenson has certainly been underwhelming to begin 2024. Even putting aside his issues holding onto the football, Stevenson is averaging just 0.69 PPR points per touch after four games — the third-lowest mark of the 24 running backs who have played at least 50% of their team’s offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Gibson is averaging 5.3 yards per rushing attempt and he’s taken far more advantage of his opportunities in the passing attack, which includes him racking up 67 receiving yards in Week 4’s loss against San Francisco.
Still, benching Stevenson would be a massive shift for the Patriots. Gibson has found himself more involved in recent games, going from a 21.5% snap share in Week 1 to hovering around 35% the past two weeks, yet Stevenson’s averaging 18.3 touches per contest — a figure that jumps to 22.3 touches if you remove an outlier performance and script in Week 3.
Maybe this is a situation where we see something closer to a 50/50 split in Week 5, but that feels like it would just ruin Stevenson’s value more than making Gibson incredibly viable. Miami is surrendering the sixth-most FPTS per game to opposing backfields so far this season, yet most of that success has been touchdown-dependant, as the Dolphins have conceded six rushing scores since Week 2. One problem: New England doesn’t score touchdowns. Does this really feel like an offense that can support two top 30 RBs?
If you’re desperate due to injury or the bye week, I could see Gibson having some FLEX appeal. However, in the grand scheme of things, I can’t find myself getting too excited about the Patriots RB2.
Start or Sit Rhamondre Stevenson? Start.
Start or Sit Antonio Gibson? Sit.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
