Josh Jacobs got off to a hot start to the season, but has dwindled in terms of both touches and production over the past two weeks. But I’m going back to him to produce on the ground in a Week 5 matchup in Los Angeles. Let’s breakdown why.
Josh Jacobs OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Jacobs began the season as the featured back for Green Bay, going for lines of 16-84-0 against the Eagles and an impressive 32-151-0 versus the Colts. Jacobs was playing around 70% of the snaps for the Packers, seeing at least 30 more plays per game than Emmanuel Wilson. But in the past two weeks, playing time has tightened up between the two backs.
There was some concern specifically over the Week 3 game in Tennessee, as Jacobs only out-snapped Wilson 33-26. While there was still a time share in Week 4, Jacobs won the snaps 46-30 against Minnesota. Jacobs only gained 43 yards on 14 carries against the Titans, so the Packers tried to mix things up in that game. I think the distribution we saw in Week 4 was a bit more telling, and that game featured an impossible game script for Jacobs as a rusher. Green Bay fell behind 28-0, so the running game was abandoned despite 5.7 yards per carry from Jacobs — 51 yards on nine carries.
I expect the Packers to lean on the ground game much more this week, sitting as a road favorite at the Rams. Los Angeles has been awful against the run this season, giving up and NFL-worst 165.5 yards per game. That includes the Rams giving up a 16-93-1 line last week to D’Andre Swift, who looked like he was running in mud the first three weeks of the season — a combined 68 yards on 37 carries prior to last week.
Jacobs’ rushing attempt prop is set at 14.5 and juiced -125 to the over this week. I had 15 carries as a fair projection for Jacobs, even if he wins up in a 60/40 time split with Wilson. That should be plenty for Jacobs to exceed the discount we’re getting on his rushing prop here, which comes at a great time given the terrific matchup.
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