For only the second time since the creation of the three-game Wild Card format, we’re going to Game 3. Thank goodness, too. I didn’t want to have to go two full days without postseason baseball.
On one side, we’ve got the division champion Brewers, who shocked the world with their dominance this season. On the other, we find the Mets, who have been coming back from the dead all summer long. Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $80K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (NYM @ MIL)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
William Contreras ($14,100 CP) – Contreras has now established himself as one of the best catchers in MLB. However, if there’s one skill that’s stood out in his arsenal across his whole career, it’s been his ability to crush left-handed pitching. Specific to the 2024 regular season, Contreras slashed .313/.402/.486 with a 145 wRC+ in his 169 plate appearances within the split. If you extend that time frame back to the beginning of 2022, Contreras is hitting .340 with a 1.002 OPS and a .424 wOBA off of southpaws. Jose Quintana ($10,600) was absurdly good in September to close out the year, yet I’m having a difficult time trusting a 35-year-old soft-tosser with a 4.56 FIP — especially in this matchup.
UTIL Plays
Tobias Myers ($10,800) – I’m not sure you have to use either starter on this slate — the leash on both will be incredibly short — yet my preference between the two is definitely Myers. Here’s a quick rundown on a pitcher you probably hadn’t heard of till mid-season. Myers was never really a hyped prospect prior to his MLB debut, but it’s clear the Brewers used some of their magic development powers on the 25-year-old. Since June 1, Myers has pitched to a 2.43 ERA and a 3.46 FIP across 111.1 innings of work. That includes throwing four one-hit frames against this same Mets lineup to close out the regular season last weekend. On top of that, he’s got a higher strikeout rate than Quintana (22.3%) and a higher win expectancy. Let’s shoot for some upside, people.
Blake Perkins ($4,200) – Look, I can’t sit here and say that Perkins is a good hitter. However, I can say that he was definitively better as an RHB in 2024 than he was as an LHB — not that that’s a ringing endorsement. In 156 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Perkins hit .271 with a 95 wRC+. Again, that’s not amazing, but it is better than the .222 average and 77 wRC+ he produced versus righties. So, why is the outfielder viable on this slate? Well, he hit second in Milwaukee’s lineup in Game 2 with the left-handed Sean Manaea on the mound and he picked up a pair of hits. I’m confident he’ll be there again in Game 3 and, priced this close to the minimum, that’s hard to ignore.
Reed Garrett ($4,000) – When it comes to reliever use in Showdown, you’ve got to pick a narrative. A script. The easiest form of that is picking a side and rolling with that team’s closer — in this case either Edwin Diaz ($4,000) or Devin Williams ($4,000) — but there’s a lot of chaos that can happen in the eight innings leading up to a possible save situation. That’s why I like an asset like Garrett, who brings a similar level of elite strikeout production, yet will be used in middle-relief. Plus, as I said above, there will be a lot of middle-relief innings to cover in this one. Garrett struck out 33.6% of the batters he faced this season with a 3.13 xERA. He’s legit and possesses a ceiling higher than most RPs on this slate. I’d be shocked if he isn’t one of the first arms the Mets turn to after Quintana.
Fades
J.D. Martinez ($6,600) – I beg you not to look at Martinez’s September numbers for too long. You’ll burn your eyes. To say the veteran struggled down the stretch of the regular season would be a massive understatement. In 63 plate appearances across the month, Martinez slashed a paltry .109/.222/.145 with a 17 wRC+. He did have a big hit in Game 1, but it’s been some time since Martinez has looked comfortable in the box. Let us also consider the matchup with the right-handed Myers. While Martinez actually ranked fifth in all of baseball with a .430 expected wOBA against LHPs in 2024, he was well-below average versus RHPs, posting a .683 OPS with a 95 wRC+. Don’t get sucked in by a familiar name at a seemingly modest price tag.
THE OUTCOME
Stuff like run differential doesn’t really matter in a one-game setting, but I don’t want people to forget how great Milwaukee was all season long. They outscored their opponents by 136 runs, trailing only the Dodgers among NL squads. The Brewers are very good and deserve to be favored in this spot. Add in a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup and a clear edge in the bullpen, and I’ll ride with the home team on Thursday evening.
Final Score: Brewers 4, Mets 2
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $80K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (NYM @ MIL)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
