There are great champions, and then you have someone like Undisputed UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Alex ‘Poatan’ Pereira. Sometimes, when a fighter captures gold, they are content about what they have accomplished and are not striving for more. That is not Pereira. UFC 307, Saturday night, is his 10th UFC fight since he debuted at Madison Square Garden in November 2021. Ten fights in 35 months, two world championships, and five title fights.
Pereira is a baseline for what other athletes strive to be. He is an active champion who backs up everything he says. At UFC 307, he takes on an unlikely but dangerous challenger in No. 8 Khalil Rountree Jr. Rountree is on a five-fight win streak with four wins by knockout and has turned his career around in the past three years.
In 2021, a title opportunity would have been seen as a far-fetched dream for Rountree, who lost two fights to Ion Cutelaba and Marcin Prachnio. But now, he is one win away from realizing his dream. In the Co-Main Event, Julianna Pena is looking to become the second two-time UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion when she faces current title holder Raquel Pennington.
Here are my four best bets for Saturday’s highly anticipated UFC 307 PPV in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Alex Pereira to Win in Rounds 1-2 (-130)
Pereira is 8-1 in the UFC, with six wins by knockout. Five of his six TKO/KO wins came in the first or second round of the fight. ‘Poatan’ doesn’t like wasting time when he steps into the Octagon. He is a precise sniper on the feet and, to me, is the best striker in the sport and the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world.
Although anything can happen, Pereira has shown that it is his fight to lose when he goes toe-to-toe with another kickboxer or stand-up fighter. He is a longer and rangier fighter than Rountree, and if he keeps him at range, I see Pereira ending this fight early.
Pereira is -455 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win this fight. Rountree is the smaller fighter by three inches and has never headlined a UFC event. This is also the first time in Rountree’s UFC career that he is in a five-round fight. The last time Rountree fought on a PPV was at UFC 257. It is an entirely different challenge, going from fighting in front of a few fans at the UFC Apex to facing the sport’s most opposing and dominant champion. Pereira is on a historic path right now, and I don’t believe that Rountree is the guy who will stop his generational run.
Kayla Harrison to Win by KO/TKO or Submission (+110)
Harrison is 17-1 in her MMA career while having 13 finishes. Although she is only 1-0 in the UFC, she already is the No. 3 contender in the Women’s Bantamweight division. At 34 years old, Harrison is in the prime of her career and has no time to waste impressing the UFC brass and winning a championship.
Harrison is more motivated now than ever to win fights and must do it impressively. Harrison is -1100 to win this fight on DraftKings Sportsbook. The value isn’t there when betting on Harrison to win this fight outright. So, getting her at +110 to either submit Vieira or finish her via ground and pound is a good option. Harrison showed her powerful ground-and-pound in her first UFC fight. Look for Harrison to use it again against Ketlen Vieira on the ground.
Former bantamweight champion Jose Aldo returned to the sport after two years away in his home country of Brazil. He won an impressive unanimous decision against Jonathan Martinez. Aldo is 38 but has won four of his last five fights in the UFC.
Aldo has won four of his last five fights, with his only loss coming to new UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili. If the same version of Aldo shows up from his previous performance, the value at +124 is too good to pass up. Aldo has seemed in good spirits throughout the fight week and intends to go on another run at a title opportunity.
Kevin Holland Moneyline (-162)
Anytime Holland is on a UFC card, he brings energy and excitement. His fights are always entertaining, and he always comes ready to fight. Without a doubt, Holland is the most active fighter in the sport. This will be his 18th fight since May 2020 and his 11th in the last three years. It doesn’t matter if the fight is at 170 or 185 pounds; Holland will show up and be ready to fight anyone.
Holland has a substantial five-inch reach advantage (81″ vd. 76″) against Roman Dolidze in this fight. Dolidze has much power, but Holland is a more accurate striker on the feet. Holland lands 49 percent of his significant strikes, while Dolidze’s is 43 percent. Holland vs. Dolidze should be a fun fight on the PPV card, and a finish is likely, as Holland’s last seven victories have come by KO/TKO or submission. Dolidze is 2-2 in his previous four fights at Middleweight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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