Week 5 of the NFL season will be headlined by an NFC South matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams feature veteran quarterbacks who have found their footing outside of the team that drafted them. Each also holds legitimate playoff hopes and this is a matchup that could play a huge factor in the divisional standings at the season’s conclusion.
The Falcons enter this matchup as 1.5-point favorites and are currently -125 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tampa Bay will be traveling into enemy territory as +105 underdogs on the moneyline. The over/under for the game sits at 44 points for the matchup.
While we have plenty of articles on the site for the game outlook, DFS and Pick6 breakdowns, here is a look at some of the most intriguing player props ahead of the Thursday night matchup.
Kirk Cousins Over 229.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Falcons made a splash in free agency this offseason signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal worth $180 million. The four-time Pro Bowl quarterback was brought in with the hopes of elevating the team to a true championship contender but he has struggled slightly out of the gates. Through the opening four weeks of the season, Cousins has completed 64.7% of his passes for 864 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions.
While he is not up to his standard of play, there has been more made about Cousins’ struggles than the reality. The 36-year-old has knocked off some rust in his first games back following the Achilles tear he suffered last season. Even still, he has thrown for over 229.5 yards the past three games after a bad opening week performance. Cousins has also not averaged less than 230 yards passing per game in any of the past 10 seasons.
Expect Cousins to continue building his chemistry with his new teammates and to have plenty of opportunities to air the ball out. The 229.5-yard margin is too low for his level of talent and this is a matchup that has the potential for both offenses to have success. Look for him to eclipse this number on Thursday night and continue looking closer to the missing piece the team hopes he can be.
Rachaad White Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Rachaad White tallied 771 yards from scrimmage as a rookie and then nearly doubled his production with 1,539 scrimmage yards last year. There were high hopes heading into this season, but through four weeks, it has become clear that Bucky Irving will continue to play a role within the offense. So far this season, White has recorded 41 carries and 55 total touches while Irving has tallied 35 carries and 41 total touches.
The impact in the passing game is where White has a clear-cut advantage over the rookie. White has struggled on the ground to start this season. He has rushed for just 115 total yards and 2.8 yards per carry through the early weeks, but he has made his impact felt in the passing game and this should be expected to continue.
White tallied 75 receiving yards in the opening week, five yards in Week 2, 18 yards in Week 3 and 35 yards through the air last game. In contrast, Irving has tallied just six receptions for 34 yards on the season.
Tampa Bay found something within the offense last week as it leaned heavily on its quick passing game. Baker Mayfield had an NFL-best 2.08-second average snap-to-release average. Tampa Bay made it a clear effort to get it out of his hands quickly and allow the skill position players to make plays. Expect the Buccaneers to continue leaning down this path and for White to be a part of the game plan. He is dynamic with the ball in his hands and clearly is higher in the passing game pecking order than Irving, and 22.5 receiving yards is too low of a number for the third-year running back. Expect him to have a few opportunities in the passing game and to ultimately eclipse 23 receiving yards.
Tyler Allgeier Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Bijan Robinson has established himself as the No. 1 running back in the Atlanta backfield, but there is room for production for Tyler Allgeier as well. Through the opening four weeks of the season, Allgeier has tallied 166 rushing yards and 198 yards from scrimmage. He has recorded double-digit touches twice already and recorded as many as 60 rushing yards in a game this season.
Heading into this matchup, there is some doubt about the availability of Robinson. The Texas product landed on the injury report this week with a hamstring injury. He has been limited in practice this week and the short week makes things difficult. While things seem to be trending toward Robinson being available, hamstrings are tricky and this could also result in limited carries.
Expect Allgeier to find his way onto the field and there to be additional opportunities due to Robinson’s injury. Especially considering the short week and injury concerns, Allgeier should be expected to be an active part of the offense. Last week against the Saints, he led the team with eight carries for 60 yards. Tampa Bay is allowing the 11th-most rushing yards this season and has allowed seven total players to eclipse this total already this season. Expect Allgeier to add to this list and impress on Thursday night.
Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins to Combine for 500+ Passing Yards (+125)
Entering Week 5, Baker Mayfield ranks sixth in the NFL in passing yards with 984 on the season or 246.0 yards per game. He has been playing some of his best football and found a nice balance of big-play attempts while still taking the checkdowns often.
On the other side of the ball is Kirk Cousins, who has gotten off to a bit of a rockier start. Cousins has been one of the league’s best passers since he became a full-time starter over a decade ago. The former fourth-round pick has only averaged less than 250 yards passing per game once since the 2014 season.
Give both of these quarterbacks a chance to break free for an impressive performance in this game. Mayfield is coming off a 347-yard passing performance last week while Cousins has had at least 230 yards passing in each of the past three weeks. Both quarterbacks provide a high floor for what to expect and are a near guarantee to throw for over 200 yards each. Both are also capable of exploding for well over 300 passing yards and have done so 64 times combined in their careers. Expect this game to open up and for both quarterbacks to make their impact felt as they combine for over 500 passing yards on Thursday night.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
