Week 5 of the NFL season gets underway on Thursday night with a matchup of NFC South teams. The 3-1 Buccaneers travel to Atlanta to face the 2-2 Falcons, with a spot atop the division on the line. I lean to Tampa in this one, but instead am pivoting to a rushing prop that I’m more confident in. Let’s breakdown why Bucky Irving is going to have a solid game on the ground.
Bucky Irving OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
1-unit
Rachaad White entered the season atop the depth chart at running back for the Bucs, but the gap has been closing on a weekly basis. Despite getting less work, Irving has consistently outperformed White, and is making his case to receive more carries out of the backfield. Through the first three weeks of the season, Irving never played more than 20 snaps in a game. Despite the limited playing time, Irving still produced more rushing yards in each of those games, even with White getting more carries in each contest.
Irving has put his explosiveness on display, rushing for 62 yards on nine carries in Week 1 against Washington, and then 70 yards on nine carries against Denver. That led to a season high in snaps (32) and carries (10) for Irving last week versus the Eagles, resulting in 49 yards and his first career touchdown.
The numbers through the first quarter of the season are strongly in favor of Irving being the better back, with the rookie gaining a full three yards per carry more than White (5.8 YPC for Irving to just 2.8 YPC for White). It looks like Tampa is starting to incorporate its fourth-round pick into the offense more, and this would be a good week to continue doing so.
With less carries on the season, Irving should bring fresh legs on a short week. The matchup is very favorable, going against a Falcons defense that ranks 25th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 145.5. While we missed the best of the number, I still think 43.5 is a number to take the over on. This one opened up at 38.5, and has taken significant money. Irving has gone over this number in three of four career games, with the under coming in a game he saw just seven carries against a Detroit defense allowing the fourth fewest rushing yards per game.
Irving has a good matchup, and all signs point to the rookie playing his largest role yet on Thursday night in Atlanta. Let’s play on the over to his rushing yards prop.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
