It’s an especially light night on the diamond, with only three games taking place past 7:00 p.m. ET. We’re not exactly dealing with a murderer’s row of available talent, either, as the White Sox, Cardinals and Angels make up 50% of this featured slate. Woof.
Still, that doesn’t mean we can’t uncover a few diamonds. Let’s dive in.
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PITCHER
Value
Ben Lively, Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, $7,600 – Lively is a name to watch in the coming weeks. Through four starts in 2024, the former KBO standout owns a 2.08 ERA and a 2.97 FIP. Lively’s also posted a career-high 28.6% strikeout rate despite no massive changes to his velocity or pitch mix. I’m not saying it’s all a mirage, I’m just saying I can’t really explain it. Either way, Lively’s run of success should continue tonight against the White Sox. Chicago has been hitting the ball slightly better in recent games — the addition of Tommy Pham has been huge — yet the team still ranks dead-last in wOBA (.269) and wRC+ (71) for the season as a whole.
INFIELD
Stud
Sal Perez, Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels, $5,300 – Tomorrow is Perez’s 34th birthday. You wouldn’t know it from looking at his stats so far this season. In 142 plate appearances, Perez is slashing .326/.387/.558 with a 161 wRC+. His .412 expected wOBA is the eighth-highest qualified mark in baseball. The only player averaging more barrels per PA is some guy named Shohei Ohtani. Again, he’s been amazing. On Thursday, Perez will draw an opposite-hand matchup against Reid Detmers ($8,700). For his career, the backstop owns a .210 ISO versus LHPs.
Stud
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, $5,000 – Arenado’s sudden lack of power is concerning, yet the veteran has looked good so far in May, slashing .364/.423/.591 with a 185 wRC+. I expect he’ll keep the good times rolling in a matchup with Tobias Myers ($6,400) on Thursday evening. Myers has struggled in his rookie campaign — specifically with right-handed opponents. To wit, RHBs are averaging an eye-popping 6.14 home runs per nine off of Myers so far this season.
Value
Nolan Schanuel, Los Angeles Angeles vs. Kansas City Royals, $3,700 – After a slow start to the season, Schanuel is beginning to turn things around. In fact, in his last 18 games, the former first-round pick is hitting .328 with a 132 wRC+. He also happens to be the Angels’ leadoff man when the team is facing a right-handed opponent. Tonight, that’s Michael Wacha ($7,100), who has had his issues with LHBs so far in 2024, surrendering an .873 OPS within the split.
OUTFIELD
Value
Lars Nootbar, St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, $3,900 – In terms of the difference between actual wOBA and expected wOBA, no National League position player has been as unlucky as Nootbar to begin 2024. Nootbar’s .362 expected wOBA sits in the 80th percentile of baseball, yet his real-life surface statistics are putrid, with the outfielder batting just .183 across 96 plate appearances. Tonight is the night normalization begins. Nootbar should be batting second against the struggling Myers and he should thrive in an opposite-hand matchup. He’s a cost-effective part of any Cardinals stack.
Value
Estevan Florial, Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, $3,100 – There’s really no way to spin Florial’s numbers to make them look good, but with Steven Kwan (hamstring) on the IL, the Guardians have turned to the speedy outfielder as their replacement leadoff man. To his credit, Florial does hit the ball really hard on the rare occasion he does make contact, as the 26-year-old sits in the 86th percentile in hard hit rate (48.8%) and the 80th percentile of barrel rate (11.6%). Maybe he’ll run into a mistake from Erick Fedde ($8,500).
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
