After a 3-0 start, the Steelers finally struggled in Week 4 against the Colts. Pittsburgh couldn’t get out of its own way, making some silly mistakes that likely took points off the board. Now the Steelers return home for a primetime matchup with the Cowboys. Let’s breakdown why Pittsburgh should bounce back at home.
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers ML (-130)
1.5-units
During Dallas’ Thursday night victory at the Giants, I was able to grab the Steelers as a pick’em in this game. I’m still confident enough to put this one out, even with Pittsburgh as a growing home favorite. I was already leaning with the home team in this spot, but the injuries to Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence should put an already poor Dallas defense in a difficult position.
The Cowboys are giving up 26 points per game so far this season, ranking 27th in the NFL. While the Giants managed just 15 points last Thursday on five field goals, they left a lot of points on the table. Now forced to operate without two key defenders up front, a lot more should open up for the Steelers. Dallas ranks just 27th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, with over 145 per game. And that number is factoring in allowing just 26 yards to the Giants, who got nothing going on the ground. Pittsburgh, which ranks in the top-10 with 128.5 rushing yards per game, should be able to exploit this weakness.
While I expect the Steelers to lean on the run, and find success, the absence of Parsons is exactly what Justin Fields needs to find a groove as a passer. Without Parsons chasing him down, the pass rush should be far weaker, opening up a balanced attack against a Dallas defense that also ranks in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed.
Once known for running the ball, the Cowboys no longer have that balance. They rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game, barely cracking 75 per game. I don’t expect to see that improve on the road against a Pittsburgh run defense that’s been top-three through the first four weeks of the NFL season. That leaves a lot on Dak Prescott to find a way to win this game through the air, which won’t be easy with T.J. Watt hounding him.
Look for the Steelers to control the ground game and make enough plays through the air to win this one. Dallas should be predictable enough for Pittsburgh to contain.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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