NFL Week 5 wraps up with the Saints traveling to Kansas City for Monday Night Football. I’m strong on playing the under for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s breakdown why.
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 42.5 (-110)
2-units
I think we have a few nice angles that support backing the under in this game. Generally I’ve been writing up my plays for MNF the day of the game, and maybe as kickoff approaches I’ll find a prop I like in this game. But I’m putting this one out much earlier in the week, as I think the under will take some money, and potentially move the number as the week goes on.
We’ve already seen significant play on the under in this one. As of Tuesday afternoon, our betting splits on DraftKings Sportsbook show that the ticket count is even on both sides — 50% of the bets on the over, and 50% of the bets on the under. However, the handle is far more lopsided, with a whopping 90% of the money on the under in the early going.
So why are we seeing the sharp money come in on the under this early? We can start on the Kansas City side, with a team that continues to suffer injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Hollywood Brown is yet to suit up for the Chiefs, and remains out. In Week 2, Isaiah Pacheco suffered a leg injury that will keep him sidelined. And then the most impactful injury of the group happened this past Sunday, with Rashee Rice injuring his knee, and likely missing the remainder of the season.
While we all respect what Patrick Mahomes can do, this offense has not yet hit its stride. And as the injuries continue to hit, the Chiefs continue to score fewer points each week this season — 27 vs. Baltimore, 26 vs. Cincinnati, 22 at Atlanta and then 17 at the Chargers. While the Chiefs may address some needs in the trade market, this week Mahomes and company will have to face a New Orleans defense allowing just 17.5 points per game, which ranks sixth in the NFL.
While the Saints began the season scoring 47 on the Panthers and 44 on the Cowboys, they’ve come back to reality over the last two weeks. New Orleans managed just 12 points against a questionable Philadelphia defense in Week 3, and followed it up with 24 points on Sunday in Atlanta. Some of that can be attributed to offensive skill players getting dinged up, but that should remain the case in Week 5. On top of that, Monday night will be the first time that the Saints play outdoors this season, which is a big deal. We know this offense has the ability to hum indoors, but we’ll see if that’s the case going outdoors on the road against a Kansas City defense that ranks seventh in the NFL in points allowed at 18 per game.
Between what the Chiefs will be missing on offense and the Saints’ offense adjusting to the elements, look for two strong defenses to shine on Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
