The NFL season has lived up to the hype through the opening four weeks. There have been plenty of intriguing storylines and unexpected upsets to cripple survivor pools across the country.
Elimination rates have reached historic levels as less than 5% of entries are still alive just four games into the season. If you are so lucky to remain in the hunt- well done.
Here is a breakdown of the Week 5 slate and which games have the best chance at allowing you to survive and advance. Week 5 is shaping up into one of the most difficult slates in recent years with only four teams favored by more than 3.5 points.
1. Washington Commanders over Cleveland Browns (-3 Spread and -166 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jayden Daniels has drastically changed the outlook for the Washington Commanders in both the short and long term. The Commanders finally look like they have “their guy” at the quarterback position after selecting the Heisman winner with the second overall pick.
The Commanders enter this matchup with a 3-1 record that includes wins over the Cardinals, Bengals and Giants. They rank third in the NFL in scoring, sixth in yards, first in score percentage and have the fewest turnovers in the league. Daniels himself is leading the NFL in completion percentage and has produced seven combined passing and rushing touchdowns with just one interception. Washington has punted the ball just four total times this season and has gone two full games without calling on punter Tress Way. It will now face off against the Cleveland Browns, who hold a 1-3 record and are coming off back-to-back losses to the Giants and Raiders.
While Cleveland’s defense is solid, it ranks 27th in scoring and Deshaun Watson has yet to look like the version of himself the organization thought it traded for. The Browns will have to answer some difficult questions regarding the outlook of Watson and the team moving forward. But for the time being, it must continue through this season. Expect Daniels to continue on his tear and for the Browns to be next in line. There are not enough reasons for optimism surrounding this Browns team and the Commanders are playing at an impressive level right now. Look for this trend to continue for both teams and for Washington to produce a comfortable Week 5 victory.
2. Seattle Seahawks over New York Giants (-6 Spread and -258 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Seattle Seahawks suffered their first loss of the season last week on Monday Night Football at the hands of the Detroit Lions. This was not a loss the Seahawks should hang their heads on as Geno Smith threw for a career-high 395 yards while it was a competitive matchup throughout. Jared Goff just managed to be perfect in his 18-18 passing performance. Seattle has a great chance to get back on track as it prepares to face off with the New York Giants this week.
While New York has shown some signs of life, mostly due to the success of Malik Nabers, the organization is still heading in an unclear direction. Daniel Jones has not eliminated the head-scratching decisions from his game and he has four touchdowns and four turnovers through the first four weeks. New York enters with a 1-3 record and is tied for the second-fewest points scored with just 60 total points on the season.
There is still some doubt surrounding this Seahawks team, but they should have no issues against the Giants. Seattle is better on both sides of the ball and this is a great get-right spot following last week’s loss. While the Giants have the rest advantage after playing on Thursday Night last week, don’t expect them to give the Seahawks much trouble.
3. Chicago Bears over Carolina Panthers (-4 Spread and -185 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
After a frustrating start to the Caleb Williams era in Chicago, the Bears seem to be inching toward being back on track. They enter with a 2-2 record and are coming off a victory over the Rams. They will now face a Carolina Panthers team that received a jolt of life with the quarterback play but has just a 1-3 record thus far.
While Andy Dalton has impressed in his pair of starts, he will face a tough test against this Chicago defense. Currently, it ranks eighth in opponent scoring and has forced the third-most turnovers this season. In contrast, Carolina ranks dead last in opponent scoring.
This feels like an opportunity for Williams and the Bears to put forth their most complete performance. There have been more growing pains than most expected but the talent is there on this Chicago roster. Look for Chicago to produce its most impressive performance and move above .500 for the first time this season.
4. Denver Broncos over Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5 Spread and -142 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Denver Broncos were a team with unclear expectations heading into the season. But four weeks in, there is some surprising optimism regarding Bo Nix and the team. The Broncos hold a 2-2 record and are coming off a gutsy win over the Jets. While they were unable to produce a touchdown against a stingy Jets defense, Denver did produce 26 points against the Buccaneers the week before.
Looking at the Raiders, it feels like the wheels may be falling off early this season. Davante Adams finds his name in trade rumors and head coach Antonio Pierce has publicly called out his team for making “business” decisions during a loss.
Nix will continue to play through his growing pains, but it will be Denver’s defense that paves its way to a win. It is currently holding opponents to the third-fewest points and second-fewest yards this season. The Broncos have made their impact felt against quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers and Geno Smith. Expect Gardner Minshew to struggle to generate offense and the Broncos to scrap their way to a victory again this week.
Games to Avoid:
New England Patriots (-1) vs. Miami Dolphins (-105)
The season outlook for the Miami Dolphins shifted dramatically when Tua Tagovailoa sustained another concussion. Coach Mike McDaniel has struggled to scheme up offense since this point with the Dolphins tallying just 33 points across the past three weeks. There are also plenty of questions surrounding the Patriots. They enter with a 1-3 record and have tallied just 13 points per game this season, which is 31st in the NFL. This is a matchup in which one costly turnover could decide the game. There is far too much risk on the table and this is a game worth avoiding completely.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. New York Jets (+124 ML)
The Minnesota Vikings have been the NFL’s hottest team to start the season. They hold a 4-0 record, joining the Chiefs as the only other undefeated team. Sam Darnold has played like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and the Vikings defense has caused issues on some of the better quarterbacks in the league.
On the other side of things, the Jets are coming off a frustrating loss to the Broncos in which they were unable to generate any sort of offense. This game will also be taking place in the United Kindom to provide an additional factor. Weird things happen in overseas games and this is another matchup worth avoiding.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+130 ML)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are another team seemingly heading toward implosion. Trevor Lawrence has regressed in his decision-making and there are plenty of concerns with the coaching staff. They will face off with a Colts team with a 2-2 record coming off a victory over the Steelers. Anthony Richardson left last week’s game with a hip injury and has been limited in practice this week. It is in the best interest of the franchise to allow him to continue playing through his growing pains if he is healthy. But with that comes the play from the quarterback with the widest range of highs and lows in the league. Jacksonville feels it should not be favorites against just about anyone right now, but stay away from this game at least until there is more clarity.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
