The Dolphins host the Titans in the first game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dolphins (-1) vs. Titans o/u 36.5
Titans Team Breakdown
It has been a disappointing start to the season for Tennessee. They did a lot in the offseason to improve on the defensive side of the ball and acquired Tony Pollard to replace Derrick Henry at running back. So far, the defense has looked much better but the offense has been holding them back. They haven’t been able to identify any kind of offensive identity, especially in the running game with Pollard. It’s hard to single out one player in a game with so many factors but Will Levis made devastating mistakes in their first two games that essentially cost them wins against the Jets and Bears.
The defense is a really respectable 11th in the NFL in EPA/play, however, the offense is 31st in EPA/play better than only the Browns. They need to find a way to get Will Levis going and this could be the game to do it. The Dolphins’ defense ranks 28th in the NFL in EPA/dropback. If Levis can avoid silly mistakes like he has made in each game this season, the Titans should be able to move the ball effectively against the Dolphins. Their defense should also be able to hold up against the Dolphins’ offense.
Dolphins Team Breakdown
The Dolphins are in a bad spot heading into this game. They are 1-2, thanks to a late comeback against the Jaguars in Week 1, and they will be without their franchise quarterback for an extended amount of time. Tyler Huntley will make his first start for the Dolphins this week. Skylar Thompson has been limited with the injury he suffered last week and Tim Boyle is simply not up to the task, as demonstrated in his time with the Jets last season.
Huntley has been a suitable backup for the Ravens over the last few seasons in a system that fit his playing style pretty well. The Dolphins’ offense is in total disarray and it didn’t look very good even with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. It took a couple of crazy explosive plays to beat the Jaguars and they didn’t have much going on before Tua got hurt against the Bills. The Titans’ offense may rank 31st in EPA/play but the Dolphins are barely ahead of them at 30th in EPA/play.
Pick and Prediction
Both of these offenses have a lot of issues. The difference is, one team is trying to solve those issues with their fourth different quarterback so far this season who is brand new to this system. The Titans are hopefully drilling into Will Levis how he needs to avoid the same couple of mistakes he keeps making every week and that would help their offense out tremendously.
The Titans have a much better defense between these two teams. The Titans are 12th in defensive EPA/dropback and the Dolphins are 28th. If either offense will be able to break out of their rut and get something going, it is more likely to be the Titans. It is a bit of an ugly game but with so much uncertainty around the Dolphins, I will go with the Titans +1 in this spot.
Best Bet: Titans +1
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