Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each different position and highlighting some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full Contest Sims on the site.
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QB Edge Distributions
We are looking at some heavy ownership towards the top of the QBs this week with Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels projecting for 16% each. Even at high ownership, both of them are undervalued and offer by far the most positive edge on the slate. Murray shows up in 44.70% of the winning lineups in the contest sims while Daniels shows up in nearly 30% meaning they combine for a whopping 75% of winning QBs. Because of this, it’s basically scraps remaining and any ownership going elsewhere is going to be overvalued. Joe Burrow takes the biggest brunt here with a -4.92% edge at a projected ownership of 10.52%.
The only other QB who has a positive edge in this run of simulations is C.J. Stroud at +1.04% and a 10% win rate.
It’s worth saying that if you choose Daniels or Murray, even at high ownership, you are setting up your lineup to have plenty of relative value based on these win rates. If you choose any other QB you will have to make some decisions and avoid heavy negative edges at other positions. that’s totally fine to do, but you do have to be reticent.
RB Edge Distributions
Above you’ll find the top 10 RBs in positive edge offered based on this set of contest simulations. Brian Robinson Jr. leads all RBs in positive edge based on this set of sims with a +16.29% mark. His exposure in winning lineups was 29% while his projected ownership is just 12.81%. Granted, I think that ownership will rise come Sunday, but with a 30% optimal rate I think we can safely say he will be underowned even if he hits the 20-25% range.
Other RBs with positive edges offered are Najee Harris, Zack Moss, and James Conner. Harris, similarly to Robinson, is going to get steamed up with Jaylen Warren out, but should still have some room before he is appropriately valued. Moss and Conner have less room, but I don’t think either is going to get pushed up too far. both are on teams with QBs who are garnering significant ownership (Burrow and Murray) and people won’t play them with their RBs, so there’s some safety in that. Likewise, both of them offer direct leverage against the passing expectations for their teams which gives them extra value in large field GPPs.
WR Edge Distributions
Here are the top 10 positive edges offered by WRs from this set of simulations, with Terry McLaurin at the tip top of the positive edges offered. His 29.40% edge is thanks to a pretty tasty 39% exposure rate in winning lineups from this set of simulations. Considering Jayden Daniels having an ownership projection of 16% it’s insane for McLaurin to have a projection of just 9.50%. It shows the field is not valuing the correlation here near enough and that’s something worth taking advantage of.
Other WRs that have notably strong positive edges are Michael Wilson and Jonathan Mingo at 12.47% and 11.51%, respectively. Both of these value WRs are in positions to greatly outscore their salaries and are worth using in your stacks. Wilson is especially interesting, as his role increased significantly last week and he won’t be competing with Trey McBride for targets. Mingo has a similar spot with no Adam Thielen for CAR, though you’ll need to be careful with the rookie as he has not shown an ability to earn targets at strong rates where Wilson has a track record of doing so in bursts.
You’ll notice that Diontae Johnson, who is projected for 25% ownership, is not on the list of positive edges. Very curious!
TE Edge Distributions
When we look at the top-10 positive edges and it is a pretty gross week, folks. Dallas Goedert, fresh of a 30+ PPR point performance, comes in as the top positive edge offered. He gives us +11.32% edge over his projected ownership in this set of simulations and a position leading 20.40% rate of winning lineups. After him, it gets pretty dicey, with a bunch of punt TEs that are more or less correlation plays with their QBs. Tommy Tremble is going to be a popular punt this week and doesn’t have a lot of room before he is appropraitely valued, while Brenton Strange looks like a solid option so long as he stays below 5% owned.
I think the thing to take away from this is that Week 4 is all about correlating your TE. There’s no reason to pay up or go for an elite option when you can just punt the position and hope for a touchdown.
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
The current projection set has the contest sims all in on ARI and WAS stacks and RBs. Both Kyler and Jayden Daniels are strong QB options with good stack partners in Terry McLaurin and Michael Wilson. Oh, and did I mention they are facing one another? So any build path that involves a stack can be easily brough back with a +1 from the other side. The combo of Daniels/Wilson/McLaurin is probably my favorite starting point for lineups this week and is an especially strong single entry base. If you don’t plan on stacking those teams, both the RBs (Brian Robinson Jr. and James Conner) are positive edge options and can give you leverage over the field in directly going against the passing upside with rushing upside. Either way you cut it, you will want exposure to that ARI/WAS game in the vast majority of your portfolio.
Outside of that game, you can find positive value from the CAR options who are underpriced and the CIN upside pieces like Ja’Marr Chase. It’ll be a great week to be contrarian with one-offs and secondary correlations rather than trying to do so with your stacks.
Good luck and go grab some trophies.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.