Week 4 has arrived, and not without a shortage of headlines. Sam Darnold leads the NFL in passing touchdowns, the Bengals are 0-3 and Andy Dalton became the first NFL quarterback to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in a game this season. It has been a season full of surprises, yet there are still so many great-looking prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook to explore. Below are my favorites for Week 4 of the NFL season.
OVER Picks
QB Jayden Daniels Over 212.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Jayden Daniels has been head and shoulders the best rookie quarterback so far this season. He is completing 80.3% of his passes, averaging around 221 passing yards a game and has accounted for five touchdowns (two passing, three rushing) and zero interceptions. Daniels has been particularly effective throwing the football in his last two starts, going for 226 yards and 254 yards through the air in those games.
He has improved each week, and I expect that trend to continue this weekend. Daniels has gone over this total pretty comfortably in each of his last two starts and is now facing a meteor Cardinals passing defense as Arizona ranks 16th against the pass. Washington is currently top of the NFC East, in large part due to good quarterback play. Daniels is seventh in QBR and fourth in passer rating. That is very good in general, never mind for someone making their first three starts. This total doesn’t seem high enough to me and I expect Daniels to keep ascending as a passer. Give me the over here.
WR Nico Collins Over 82.5 Rec Yds (-125)
I am all over Nico Collins again this week, after he cashed the over for us last week. Despite only catching four of his 10 targets, Collins still went for 86 yards. He still leads the NFL in receiving yards and is top five in targets. Collins has hit the over on this number in each of the first three games for Houston. Stroud and Collins weren’t at their best on Sunday, but given the volume that Collins is getting, this is another must-bet.
He has been targeted at least eight times in each of their first three games, and that consistency should translate against a Jaguars defense that is in disarray. They currently rank 30th in passing defense, giving up and average of 252.3 pass yards per game. This is a great bounce-back spot for Stroud, Collins and the Texans offense as a whole.
WR Khalil Shakir Over 48.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Shakir has gone under the radar during the first few weeks of the season, and even DraftKings Sportsbook is sleeping on him in this spot. He leads Buffalo in all major receiving categories. Targets, catches, yards and touchdowns. Shakir has been more involved each week, and he has hit the over on this total the last two weeks. He was close to hitting this total in Week 1 as well but fell a couple of yards short with only three catches in the game.
Speaking of catches, Shakir has caught literally everything thrown his way this season. All 14 of his targets have been completed, so there is definitely some good chemistry there between him and his quarterback Josh Allen. I saved the best news for last. Josh Allen and Shakir have a dream matchup this week, facing the worst passing defense in the NFL right now, the Baltimore Ravens.
UNDER Picks
RB D’Andre Swift Under 34.5 Rush Yds (-115)
It is safe to say that D’Andre Swift has not started the 2024 season well. He is coming off a career season in 2023 with the Eagles, where he rushed for over 1,000 yards and averaged 4.6 yards per carry. For whatever reason, things are not working out for him in Chicago. Not only has he not reached this small total in each of his first three games, but he is averaging only 1.8 yards per rush. This is an abysmal average, and it’s not like he hasn’t had plenty of chances.
Swift received double-digit carries in each of his first three starts and accumulated 68 total rushing yards on 37 carries. The Bears need to change something, and I fear that the answer may be to give other backs more opportunities. Even if Swift gets double-digit carries again this weekend, his season high in rush yards is only 30. I like the under here, and I will continue to take it until Swift can prove that he can be effective in this offense.
TE Travis Kelce Under 46.5 Rec Yds (+100)
I never thought I would be taking a Travis Kelce under in my player prop articles, but here we are. Quite frankly, he’s given me no choice. Kelce has yet to hit this total in each of his first three games so far this season. Rashee Rice has become the clear first option in the passing game, while Travis Kelce has been reduced to a below-average receiving tight end.
Out of all tight ends in the NFL, he currently is 21st in receiving yards through three weeks. His numbers have severely dropped from last year, and similarly to Swift, I am going to have to start fading him until he proves me otherwise. He has yet to record a touchdown and has yet to record 35 or more receiving yards in a game so far this season. Sorry, Swifties. I will be taking Kelce’s under in this spot.
RB Rachaad White Under 35.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Similar to my first two under-picks, I will be taking the under of another underperforming player on Sunday. No pun intended. Rachaad White has had a pretty rough start to this season himself. Similar to D’Andre Swift, his yards per carry is severely down from last season. White has not hit the over on this number in any of the first three games, and he is averaging 2.1 yards per carry on the season.
The Bucs have another running back, Bucky Irving who has outplayed White so far this season. Irving is averaging 6.2 yards per carry on 25 attempts and definitely deserves more looks moving forward. Not only has White not come close to this total so far this season, but he may be losing his snap share in the backfield if this performance continues.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
