Heading into Week 4 of the NFL season, plenty of survivor pools have already fallen short. Through three weeks, underdogs of 5.5+ points are 14-2 against the spread with 10 outright wins during Sunday matchups. Thousands of survivor pools have been crumpled up and thrown in the trash with over 80% of the season still remaining.
Hopefully, you survived and remain alive in your pools. Week 4 has a tough slate of games that you may be forced to think outside the box. Here is a look at the top-ranked matchups of the week and the games you want to avoid to put yourself in the best position to survive and advance. While these are some popular names that ideally you would save, this NFL season has shown that there are no layups, so don’t overthink things too much.
1. San Francisco 49ers over New England Patriots (-10 Spread and -520 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The San Francisco 49ers haven’t gotten off to the start of the season they desire and enter this matchup with a 1-2 record. Injuries have been a significant issue with Christian McCaffrey remaining on IR and Deebo Samuel also seeming unlikely to return this week. Brock Purdy is also battling some back issues but seems on track to be available for the matchup.
However, this is a matchup San Francisco cannot afford to let slip if it wants to keep its playoff hopes alive. The New England Patriots have already played spoiler to the Bengals in the opening week, which crippled plenty of survivor pools. But there are some serious issues within this Patriots team that the 49ers can capitalize on. Through three weeks, New England ranks 31st in scoring with 13.0 points per game and is dead last in yards on offense. The offensive line has struggled greatly and the 49ers’ fearsome defensive line should have a field day in this matchup.
Look for the 49ers to dominate the line of scrimmage and for the Patriots to struggle to get anything going offensively. Even with the injuries, Jauan Jennings has exceeded expectations and Brandon Aiyuk will look to be further unlocked within the offense. Look for them to get back in the win column and continue to tread water until they get back to the true playoff threat they desire to be.
2. Houston Texans over Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5 Spread and -278 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Houston Texans will be looking to bounce back after their upset at the hands of the Vikings last week. C.J. Stroud and company will attempt to rebound off their 34-7 loss and add to their 2-1 record this year. Houston has a terrific chance to do this against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that looks to be sinking ship.
The Jaguars enter this game in search of their first win and coming off a concerning stretch of play. Currently, they rank 30th in the league in scoring and 27th in yards tallied. Defensively, they rank 28th in points allowed and 27th in yards given up. There are notable concerns on both sides of the ball and Doug Pederson may very well be coaching for his job for the remainder of the season.
While the Jaguars should be better than they are, their on-field play has given zero evidence for this being the case. They were most recently destroyed by the Buffalo Bills 47-10 in a game that was 34-3 at halftime. The Texans are also capable of putting up crooked numbers on the scoreboard on any given day and will have a much easier time against this Jacksonville defense. Expect the Texans’ offensive production to be too much for the Jaguars to match and for the season to go from bad to worse in Jacksonville.
3. Cincinnati Bengals over Carolina Panthers (-4 Spread and -192 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Cincinnati Bengals have played themselves into a corner with their 0-3 start to the season. While the record is disappointing, Cincinnati has lost the three matchups by a combined 12 points.
Expect the team to be desperate to get in the win column with a great opportunity to do so against the Panthers. While Carolina has seen a notable jolt of life from the quarterback change, there are still limitations to the roster. Carolina ranks dead last in the NFL in points allowed with 31.7 per game and still gave up 22 points to the Raiders in last week’s victory.
At the end of the day, it has to produce victories, but Cincinnati’s on-field play has not been overly worrisome. Joe Burrow has thrown for 746 yards and five touchdowns without an interception and Ja’Marr Chase is back to being one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. The path to the playoffs has become far tougher for the Bengals than they expected, but don’t count out this team yet. Don’t expect them to let this opportunity slip and for the Bengals to get in the win column this week.
4. Kansas City Chiefs over Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5 Spread and -360 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Kansas City Chiefs have yet to look like the high-flying offense they have become known for this season. Even still, they are a perfect 3-0 and have taken down the Ravens, Bengals and Falcons to start the year.
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid seem to find a way on an every-week basis and Los Angeles will likely be their easiest test so far. The Chargers enter with a 2-1 record but have some notable injury concerns. The team has done a nice job establishing a run-heavy identity and has gotten great production out of its defense. However, Justin Herbert’s status is uncertain as he continues to recover from a high-ankle sprain. While he is now out of the walking boot, Herbert re-injured the ankle last week and the organization may take a more careful approach ahead of Week 4. If this is to be the case, expect Taylor Heinicke to get the start.
If you are going to go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs, you have to bring everything you have and the Chargers simply may not be in a position to do so. Expect the reigning champions to have no problem in this matchup.
Games to Avoid:
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (+110)
A battle of two heavyweights in the AFC with a lot still to be determined. The Ravens and Bills have each been overshadowed by the Chiefs just as Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have continually lived in Patrick Mahomes’ shadow. Baltimore has already lost two games this year, which puts it in a more desperate spot, but Buffalo has looked great to start this year. The Bills have shown more so far this season, but if things click for the Ravens, this game could easily go their direction.
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) vs. Washington Commanders (+142 ML)
Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels both have a case for being the quarterback who has exceeded expectations by the greatest margin to start the 2024 season. Murray has reminded NFL fans of the talent he is and looks as healthy as he has been in years. Daniels put himself on the NFL map with his impressive Monday Night performance to take down the Bengals and has led the Commanders to two victories already. Neither quarterback is one I want to bet against right now. This is a game I can’t wait to watch but can’t get a feel for the side.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (+114 ML)
The Saints’ dynamic offense was brought to a screeching halt last week against the Philadelphia Eagles in which they were held to just three points at halftime and 12 points overall. They will look to rebound against a Falcons team that looks to be finding its stride. Atlanta took down the Eagles in Week 2 and lost a narrow 22-17 game to the Chiefs last week. It is difficult to sort through what is legitimate and what is fool’s gold at the start of the season for the Saints. Wait for a larger sample size to come in and stay away from this matchup for now.
Outside the Box Picks:
Given the square picks for the top picks here, I wanted to include a few other picks in case you have used those choices already.
Las Vegas Raiders (-2) over the Cleveland Browns (+105)
The Raiders have not played inspired football this season and there seem to be some shakeups coming internally, based on head coach Antonio Pierce’s comments following last week’s loss. They have a great opportunity to get back on the right track against the Browns. Cleveland has struggled to get anything going offensively and has yet to eclipse 18 points in a game thus far. There is a higher floor for what we know about the Raiders and if they play their best football, the Browns will not be able to compete. The internal issues give me slight pause on this pick, but ultimately I expect the Las Vegas locker room to respond to Pierce’s statement and put forth its best performance of the year.
Minnesota Vikings (+120) over Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
The Minnesota Vikings are off to a 3-0 start this season with Sam Darnold’s redemption tour being put on full display. They will now travel to Green Bay to face their division rival in an effort to remain undefeated. Most of the uncertainty in this matchup falls on the Packers’ end as Jordan Love’s status is still unclear for the game. The Vikings rank third in scoring on offense and second in points allowed defensively. The Vikings’ defensive scheme has given issues to Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud over the past three weeks and will provide a challenge to either Love or Malik Willis. Darnold looks like a different player in this system and should be expected to keep things going in Week 4.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
