Labor Day weekend means the end of the 2023 regular season is officially within sight. It’s now or never, and the playoff picture seemingly shifts every hour: The Braves just made a huge statement in Dodger Stadium over the weekend, the AL West and NL Wild Card races are too close to call, the Brewers just took two of three from the Phillies in a thrilling series while the Orioles and Rays just keep on winning.
So: Where does your favorite team stand? Let’s take a look at the bracket as of August 21 and see what the potential MLB playoff matchups could look like.
Updated World Series odds as of September 4
Atlanta Braves +320 Los Angeles Dodgers +400 Houston Astros +700
Baltimore Orioles +800 Tampa Bay Rays +800 Seattle Mariners +1200
Texas Rangers +1400 Philadelphia Phillies +1500 Milwaukee Brewers +1900
Minnesota Twins +1900 Toronto Blue Jays +2500 Chicago Cubs +4000
The big winner of the week was undoubtedly the Atlanta Braves who rolled into Los Angeles for a massive four-game set that looked like it would decide the top seed in the National League playoffs and promptly took three of four from the Dodgers on their home field. Those two teams remain the class of the senior circuit, while everything else is … a bit of a morass. Sure, you have the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies — who just locked up for a tremendously entertaining series over the weekend, which the Brew Crew took two games to one — but the Cubs are really hurting for starting pitching depth right now, and seemingly no one else in the Wild Card picture can get it together for more than a few games at a time. (The Giants, Reds, Diamondbacks and Marlins are in a functional four-way tie for the third and final Wild Card spot. Where that will end up is anybody’s guess.)
The Junior Circuit, though, is just about the opposite. Sure, there isn’t much intrigue at the bottom of the Wild Card picture: The Blue Jays and Red Sox are really the only teams left that could crash the party, and Boston hasn’t been playing very inspired baseball of late. At the top, though, things are wide-open, with the Orioles remaining at cruising altitude but totally untested in October while the Rays have righted the ship. And then there’s the three-headed monster atop the AL West, with the Mariners, Rangers and Astros all separated by 1.5 games in the standings. While the road to the NL pennant almost assuredly runs through Atlanta and L.A., the AL has a bit of a power vacuum at the top — one that some dark horse (maybe even the Twins, loaded with starting pitching as they are) might fill with a magical couple of weeks in the fall.
World Series odds: Takeaways and best bets
Seattle Mariners (+1200)
I was tempted to pull the trigger on the Brewers here — teams have gotten hot in October with rotations far worse than Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta — but Milwaukee’s offense just leaves me cold. The NL remains a two-team race with very little juice, so let’s turn our attention to the Junior Circuit for a couple of potential values. First up: Seattle, who remains behind three other AL teams despite having the league’s best record since the start of July — and pitchers in Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby who could carry them through multiple postseason series. The Mariners also have the inside track on the West crown (and the ensuing pass into the Divisional round) but even if they wind up with a Wild Card spot, they’ll enter any series with the advantage on the mound — and the best player on the field in Julio Rodriguez.
Minnesota Twins (+1900)
Why not? Given their offensive inconsistencies and the dumpster fire that is the rest of the AL Central, everyone has more or less written Minnesota off. But their spot in the postseason is as secure as anyone this side of Baltimore, and absolutely no one will want to face Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Kenta Maeda in October — with Bailey Ober, Louie Varland and more arms waiting in the wings. The bullpen remains a question mark, but if those four starters above pitch to their capabilities, the Twins will find themselves in a whole lot of high-variance, low-scoring games where just one clutch hit or weird bounce can make the difference. That makes them a steal at +1900.
