After being “blessed” with two AFC East matchups on Thursday night, we get a NFC East one for Week 4. East coast bias!
Both teams are 1-2 entering this contest, with the only win coming against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have one win on the season?! How is that possible? Oh, the Jacksonville Jaguars, soon to be rebranded as the London Crumpets.
Last season, the Cowboys clobbered the Giants, 40-0 and 49-17. This ain’t your 2023 Cowboys, though.
Dallas has obviously struggled in all phases of the game, but if things are to improve, then Dak Prescott will likely have to lead the way. He has put up counting stats, but that’s primarily due more to volume than efficiency. Dallas is 25th in Pass EPA. The Giants are surprisingly 11th-best in Pass EPA on defense, posting a -9.6 mark.
The Giants utilize man defense at the 12th-highest rate and blitz at the second-highest rate. The Cowboys have allowed the ninth-lowest quarterback pressure rate and Prescott has a 106.8 rating against the blitz. The completion percentange hasn’t been great at 44.8%, but he’s tossed three touchdowns. If the Giants can’t pressure, that’s going to leave their secondary vulnerable and CeeDee Lamb could replicate his performance from last season of 11 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown.
The outcome of this game will likely depend on the Dallas rush defense. They have been gashed for 557 yards, eight touchdowns, and are posting the highest Rush EPA of 27.4 on defense. The next highest is 12.9. They played the Ravens and Saints, who are second and sixth in Rush EPA, while the Giants are 28th, so there should be some reprieve.
If the Cowboys can score points and force the Giants more to the air, then magic can happen because the Cowboys are fourth in quarterback pressure rate. Daniel Jones has been known to struggle with pressure.
DK Sportsbook has the Cowboys as road favorites by 6 points. The line initially opened at 7 last week, was bet down to 4 and 4.5, but has since bounced back up. As of Wednesday, 81% of the handle and 79% of the bets are on DAL -6. The total is 45. 69% of the handle and 63% of the bets are on the over.
There are no significant injuries to monitor. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (DAL @ NYG)
Captain’s Picks
Dak Prescott ($15,600 CP): I’m not expecting a high-scoring game in this one. The Cowboys backfield is a timeshare and the passing pie has been spread out. But I do like the Cowboys to score some points and get a lead, forcing the Giants to eventually become one-dimensional. This is the story I’m telling. If so, then Prescott should have a hand in most of the scoring for Dallas, which would make him ultra-valuable as I don’t see many multi-touchdown scorers in this one.
UTIL Plays
Dallas D/ST ($5,400): The Cowboys defense has been eviscerated the last two weeks, primarily due to getting gashed on the ground. The Saints and Ravens are two of the best rushing teams in the league, though, while the Giants are 30th in success rate and 28th in Rush EPA. As mentioned above in the Prescott section, the story I’m telling is that the Cowboys eventually get out to a lead; then the opportunities for fantasy goodies present themselves. In Week 1, the unit racked up two interceptions, six sacks, and scored a touchdown against the Browns. That was good for 17 FPTS. Touchdowns can never be expected, but a double-digit performance is within the range of outcomes.
Ezekiel Elliot ($6,200): Elliot has seen the snap share go from 51% down to 40% and 19% last week. The last two weeks, though, have seen the Cowboys behind and chasing points. I don’t see that happening against the Giants. No running back on the Cowboys will get the bulk of the carries, but Elliot has received four of the five red-zone opportunities for the Cowboys’ running backs. I don’t foresee many touchdowns in this game, so any scores are good scores, and I think Elliot could punch one in.
Devin Singletary ($8,200): I will likely go heavy on Cowboys for this one, so 5-1 roster construction. My lone Giants player is Singletary, which goes against my Dallas D/ST, but my thinking is that if the Giants do anything on offense, most will come from Singletary. He’s received double-digit carries in every game this season with a total of 10 targets in the passing game. He also leads the team with seven red-zone opportunities. In Week 1 against Cleveland, the Cowboys dominated 33-17, but it was running back Jerome Ford who led the way with 12 carries for 44 yards and a touchdown while catching six of seven passes for 25 yards.
Fades
Malik Nabers ($10,800): Nabers is awesome. I am not denying his talent. He’s also received 18 and 12 targets over the last two games, and I’m usually one to gravitate towards volume. Oh, he’s also scored three touchdowns, but he’s also the second highest priced player on the slate and the strength of the Dallas defense is defending the pass. Nabers is going to catch some passes for sure, but is he going to have a “had-to-have-it” game? It’s within the range of outcomes, but since my story is that Dallas controls this game with scoring at a premium, the price and expected high ownership have me favoring Singletary as the Giants player to roster.
THE OUTCOME
I like the Cowboys to control this game fairly easily. The offense should hum while the Dallas defense will remind everyone that they still have talent. Oh, also that Daniel Jones isn’t worth the four-year, $160 million contract he was given.
Final Score: Cowboys 24, Giants 13
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (DAL @ NYG)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
