Three weeks of the NFL season are already in the books. Thursday Night Football will kick things off in Week 4 with its third consecutive divisional matchup. This week, the Giants and Cowboys will face off as NFC East foes.
The Cowboys enter as 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Giants are currently +200 on the Moneyline for the upset while the game total sits at 45 points.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Cowboys vs. Giants Pick6 Plays
Each of these NFC East teams enter with 1-2 records but carry different outlooks for the remainder of the season. The Dallas Cowboys still hold -115 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook to make the playoffs while the New York Giants hold +1000 odds.
Strange things can still happen in divisional games so don’t jump to conclusions yet. In the teams’ history, the Cowboys lead the series with a 75-47-2 record.
The Cowboys won their opening game matchup in a commanding 33-17 victory in Week 1 over the Browns then lost the next two games at the hands of the Saints and Ravens.
New York lost its opening two games against the Vikings and Commanders and its lone victory also came against the Browns last week, 21-15.
The NFC East is up for grabs. Currently, the Eagles and Commanders are tied for first with a 2-1 record while the Cowboys and Giants will decide their hierarchy in this matchup. With the stage fully set, here are my picks for Week 4’s Thursday Night Football slate.
Rico Dowdle More Than 55.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
Through the opening three games of the season, Rico Dowdle has recorded offensive snap percentages of 44%, 43%, and 46%. In comparison, Ezekiel Elliott played in 51% of offensive snaps the opening week, 40% in Week 2, and just 19% of snaps last week against the Ravens. The gap seems to be widening for Dowdle to have the inside track on primary carries and look to get ahead of it with this number.
Dowdle tallied 32 yards from scrimmage in the opening week, 59 yards in the second week, and 56 yards last week. He recorded nine touches in the opening, 12 in Week 2, and 13 in Week 3.
The days in which Ezekiel Elliott is the workhorse back in the Cowboys’ backfield are long gone. The now 29-year-old has a ton of mileage on his body and last lost a step from his prime. The Cowboys are transitioning toward Dowdle being the regular running back and look for that to be on full display in Week 4. He is more effective in the passing game and will get the bulk of the work throughout the matchup. Look for Week 4 to mark the breakout moment for Rico Dowdle and for him to have no problem recording more than 56 yards from scrimmage.
Daniel Jones More Than 0.5 Interceptions
In the 62 games that Daniel Jones has played in the NFL, he has thrown 42 interceptions and turned the ball over 89 total times. He is coming off a victory over the Browns in which he threw a pair of touchdowns and managed to avoid a turnover. He hasn’t turned the ball over in two whole weeks!
Taking care of the football is the clear Achilles heel in Jones’ game. While he deserves credit for avoiding the issue the past two games, don’t expect this to last. Jones has thrown five interceptions against the Cowboys in eight games in his career and the Cowboys defense has recorded three interceptions already this season.
Jones will continue to fight his turnover demons but will need to attempt to make plays in this matchup. The Cowboys are too talented of a team for the Giants to be fully conservative with the ball. When things open up, expect Trevon Diggs and the rest of the secondary to have a few opportunities on passes up for grabs and for the team to deliver on a turnover. The wheels are loose on Jones’ tenure in New York and have a chance of fully falling off every week. Don’t be surprised if it happens against the Cowboys and the turnover issues become a central story again.
Wan’Dale Robinson More Than 34.5 Receiving Yards
Malik Nabers has established himself as one of the brightest young stars through the opening three games of the season. The LSU product and 6th overall pick in the draft has made several eye-popping plays and his early case for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Overall, he has recorded 23 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns.
Expect him to be at the front and center of the Cowboys’ scouting report, which will open the door for Wan’Dale Robinson to be a threat. Robinson can be a deep threat for the team but primarily operates out of the slot. He is off to a productive start to the season, though, recording 15 receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown through three games.
The combination of regular targets and big play potential has Robinson right at the top of my list of targets for Week 4. It may take him just one reception to tally more than 34.5 receiving yards and the Giants will try a few deep shots throughout the game. Look for Robinson to be the beneficiary of the additional attention that Nabers receives and surpass this number.
CeeDee Lamb Less Than 6.5 Receptions
It was a hectic offseason for CeeDee Lamb that involved a great deal of posturing for a new contract. It took until the final days of August for Lamb to finally receive his desired deal and become one of the highest-paid non-quarterbacks in the sport.
On the field, it has not been the smoothest transition. While Lamb is still generating plenty of production by most players’ standards, he is not reaching the sky-high expectations that were set for him. Through the first three games, he has recorded 13 receptions for 218 receiving yards and a touchdown. Lamb recorded five receptions in the opening week loss and just four in each of the past two games.
While he should still be expected to have an impact on this game, the 6.5 reception bar is slightly too high. The 25-year-old has recorded fewer than 6.5 in five of his eight games against the Giants in his career –– expect another four or five reception performance and for him to fall short of his Pick6 projection.
Dak Prescott More Than 257.5 Passing Yards
Especially amid the running back uncertainty, the Cowboys will hang their hats as a pass-first football team. Dak Prescott is at the forefront of this and is leading the NFL in pass attempts and passing yards through the opening two weeks. After throwing for just 179 yards in the opening week, Prescott posted 293 passing yards in Week 2 and 379 yards last week against the Ravens.
The Giants fall directly in the middle of the pack in terms of passing defense through the first three games of the season. However, last season, they ranked 27th in yards allowed and 25th in 2022. While Lamb gets a great deal of attention –– Jalen Tolbert, Jake Ferguson, and Brandin Cooks provide Prescott with solid overall weapons.
Look for Prescott to build off his strong start to the season and record more than 257.5 passing yards again this week. The 31-year-old eclipsed this number in 10 of 17 games last season.
Jake Ferguson More Than 41.5 Receiving Yards
With the tight end class being weaker than ever around the NFL, Jake Ferguson has a chance to make his case for one of the best in the league. He was unable to get off to the start that he hoped as Ferguson suffered a bone bruise and a sprained MCL in the season opener which kept him out of Week 2. Ferguson returned to the field against the Ravens last week where he caught six of his 11 targets for 95 yards.
Look for Ferguson to build off this production and be a key part of the Cowboys’ passing attack. He had a breakout season last year in which he tallied 761 receiving yards and five touchdowns and is a dynamic pass-catcher who is carrying the torch for the productive tight end in the Cowboys system.
Looking at last season’s stats, Ferguson recorded more than 41.5 receiving yards in nine of 17 games and is more important to the Cowboys offense this season. Look for him to have at least six targets thrown his direction and to deliver on the yardage production.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of two to six players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing between 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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