Week 4. Oh, what do the football gods have in store? Please, no more offensive snore, as all the talk of two-high shells is impossible to ignore and has become such a bore. I’d rather have my eyelids propped open while being shown an endless loop of Pauly Shore. But there’s nothing we can do with the decor, so stop wishing for how it was before. We must walk across every inch of the floor, open every door and inspect every drawer to find our core, the one that will provide the highest score. Yes, it will be quite the chore, but the reward will be finding that block of C4 that exposes the backdoor to where fantasy goodies rain in a downpour. That I would adore.
There are 12 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has four games with an O/U of at least 45: PHI/TB (45), CIN/CAR (47.5), JAX/HOU (45.5) and WAS/ARI (50.5). There are five games with a total of 40 or below: DEN/NYJ (38.5), PIT/IND (40), NE/SF (39.5), KC/LAC (39) and CLE/LV (39.5).
There is one double-digit spread favorite – SF -10 over NE. There are six games within a field goal: GB -2.5 over MIN, PIT -2 over IND, PHI -2.5 over TB, CHI -2.5 over LAR, ATL -1.5 over NO and LV -1 over CLE. There are four home dogs: IND, TB, CAR and LAC.
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Quarterback
Stud
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals ($6,500): We just saw what Daniels did in primetime on Monday night with both his arm and legs. He threw as many touchdowns as incomplete passes: two. Daniels also rushed 12 times for 39 yards and a touchdown.
Through three games, he’s rushed 12, 10 and 16 times, scoring a total of three touchdowns. He’s attempted 24, 29 and 23 passes, completing over 70% in every game. Most of the throws are short, easy reads, but he has taken shots downfield when the opportunities have presented themselves. Daniels is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, the fifth-highest number.
And it is this dual-threat ability that provides one of the best floor/ceiling combos. Daniels has scored at least 28 FPTS in two of three games. In the other, he put up 13.44 FPTS without scoring a touchdown.
The ownership will likely be high due to recency bias, the price and fact that this game has the highest total by a wide margin. But quarterback ownership is usually flat and rarely gets excessive.
Other Options – Jalen Hurts ($7,200), Kyler Murray ($6,800), Joe Burrow ($6,600), Brock Purdy ($6,100)
Value
Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($5,300) – Dalton is a thing in the Year of our Lord 2024. What a time to be alive! In Week 3, he went 26-of-37 for 319 yards and three touchdowns to lead what was a moribund Panthers offense to an impressive victory on the road. I usually dismiss a 36-year-old quarterback who hasn’t made meaningful starts since 2022, but he faces a Bengals team that just got eviscerated by a rookie quarterback. The Cincinnati pass defense has allowed a Pass EPA of 13.4, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. The unit is also 21st in quarterback pressure rate.
Other Options – Derek Carr ($5,900), Sam Darnold ($5,700), Caleb Williams ($5,600)
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Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,000) – The Eagles signed Barkley to a three-year, $37.75 million contract in the offseason. Normally, Philadelphia has eschewed using significant resources toward the position, but after watching D’Andre Swift do diddly-squat last season, it made the move. And what a move it has been so far.
Barkley has always had talent. There are reasons why he was selected as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Unfortunately, he was on an offensively challenged Giants team. Now he’s running behind the number-two rated offensive line, according to PFF, and a dual-threat quarterback while flanked by potent aerial weapons.
Through three games, Barkley has put up 36.2, 17.6 and 36.6 FPTS. He’s rushed 24, 22 and 17 times while hauling in a total of 10 passes. He’s scored five total touchdowns and has received 19 red-zone opportunities.
Now he faces a Buccaneers team that has allowed a Rush EPA of 12.9, the second-worst mark in the NFL. The unit has allowed the most receptions to running backs and the third-most fantasy points on average.
Other Options – Breece Hall ($7,800), Alvin Kamara ($7,600), James Conner ($6,500), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,100)
Value
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($5,700) – Two Panthers in this piece. What could go wrong?
Don’t answer that because I’ve walked down these streets too often. So, my head will be on a swivel and I always have contingencies.
That said, many boxes are checked for Hubbard in this one. The 47.5 game total is the second-highest on the slate. Dalton looks to be a competent quarterback. The only thing is that he received 58% of the snaps in Week 3 while Miles Sanders was in on 42%. But Hubbard dominated with 21 carries, five targets and five red-zone opportunities.
The Bengals have allowed a 10.6 Rush EPA, the fourth-most generous in the NFL.
Other Options – Zack Moss ($5,900), Najee Harris ($5,600) if he plays, Emanuel Wilson ($4,400), Cordarrelle Patterson ($4,300) if Jaylen Warren is out
Wide Receiver
Stud
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers ($7,700) – Chase finally had his breakout game in Week 3, hauling in six of seven targets for 118 yards and two touchdowns, good for 32.8 FPTS. Another big game could be on the docket once again. This game has the second-highest total on the slate and the Panthers have allowed the sixth-highest Pass EPA. They also play zone defense at the fourth-highest rate and Chase has posted a Rec EPA of 9.9 against zone defenses this season, the ninth-best mark.
Other Options – Justin Jefferson ($8,700), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,500), Rashee Rice ($7,300), Chris Godwin ($6,800), DJ Moore ($6,700), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,400)
Value
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($5,600) – I guess I really like this game, huh? Excuse me as I go vomit into the toilet. With Dalton under center, Johnson got peppered with 14 targets in Week 3, turning those into eight receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. As mentioned in the Chase section, this game has the second-highest total on the slate, so points will likely be scored. The Panthers have allowed the sixth-highest Pass EPA. But guess what? The Bengals have been worse at 13.4 Pass EPA!
Other Options – Tee Higgins ($5,900), Terry McLaurin ($5,800), Rashid Shaheed ($5,500), Rome Odunze ($5,200), Jalen Nailor ($4,900), Xavier Legette ($4,800), Darnell Mooney ($4,400), Allen Lazard ($4,300), Michael Wilson ($4,200), Andrei Iosivas ($4,100)
Tight End
Stud
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns ($5,600) – In the $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire tournament, Bowers was rostered on 29.14% of teams, the highest-rostered tight end by a wide margin. Jake Ferguson was second at 8.64%. And it made sense because Bowers was the first-round pick of the Raiders. He caught six of eight targets for 58 yards in Week 1 then followed that up with nine receptions for 98 yards in Week 2, good for 18.8 FPTS. In Week 3, though, he only caught three of four targets for 41 yards, finishing with 7.1 FPTS.
I’m going right back to the well, especially since I have a ton of concerns with many of the other higher-priced tight ends this week, and recency bias should keep the ownership down on Bowers. The Panthers utilize zone defense at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. The Browns play man defense at the fifth-highest rate, which should leave plenty of opportunities for Bowers to exploit linebackers or safeties one-on-one.
Value
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams ($4,400) – In Week 1, Kmet received one target and caught it for four yards. In Week 2, he hauled in four of five targets for 27 yards. Last week, Kmet was peppered with 11 targets and nabbed 10 for 97 yards and a touchdown. The trend is our friend! Or is it the precipice of the roller coaster, about to scream back down toward earth? Well, I don’t think Kmet gets double-digit targets again, but he should be involved, especially since the Rams have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points on average to the position.
Other Options – Tyler Conklin ($3,600), Mike Gesicki ($3,500), Brenton Strange ($3,100)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Steelers D/ST at Indianapolis Colts ($3,300) – The Colts want to run the ball, but the Steelers are one of the best units at stopping the run. The -19.2 Rush EPA allowed is the second-best mark in the NFL. Pittsburgh is also sixth in quarterback pressure rate. Anthony Richardson has thrown six interceptions, been sacked four times and fumbled twice. The Steelers D/ST has put up nine, 13 and 12 FPTS in three games this season.
Other Options – Jets D/ST ($3,700), Browns D/ST ($3,500)
Value
Texans D/ST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,000) – Trevor Lawrence has not been good so far this season. He’s completed only 52.8% of his passes, has thrown an interception and been sacked 11 times. As a result, the Jaguars passing game has posted a -35.7 Total EPA, the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. The Houston Texans D/ST hasn’t been great in pass defense, posting a -11.1 Pass EPA mark, but they are pressuring the quarterback at the highest rate in the league. While the Texans offense hasn’t hit its stride yet, an explosion can come on Any Given Sunday. Regardless, Houston is favored by seven points, so Lawrence will likely have to be aggressive and drop back to pass, which should afford the Texans D/ST plenty of opportunities to score fantasy goodies.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
