We are blessed with two games for Monday night. Are all four teams ready to play under the prime-time lights? Hopefully, they are not too bright and we get two games with lots of fight. Unfortunately, DK Sportsbook doesn’t have these contests with spreads that are tight, but the totals are respectable at 45.5 and 46.5, so we may get performances that delight.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BUF -5.5 over JAX with the total at 45.5. CIN is -7 over WAS and the total is 46.5. Both home teams are favored.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Special [$500K to 1st] (Mon)
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($7,800): I really like Burrow and think he feasts on a porous Commanders secondary. Most of the field will probably click on Burrow, especially since he is relatively cheap, and most will remember what happened to Allen last week when he scored only 9.76 FPTS. But, what if it’s Zack Moss who scores the touchdowns for the Bengals and Allen returns to what he usually does, which is providing tons of fantasy goodies? The Jaguars play man defense at the highest rate in the league, which could provide seams and opportunities for Allen to rush. Allen went for 32.18 FPTS in Week 1 and provides the highest ceiling. In bigger tournaments, I like Allen, but if the ownership is high, then going down to Burrow or Daniels seems to be the way. In smaller tournaments, Burrow seems to be the path.
Other Options – Joe Burrow ($6,300)
Value
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals ($6,000) – The Bengals are implied to score the most points at 27.25 points, so the Commanders will likely have to be aggressive to keep up. Daniels has thrown 24 and 29 times in two games this season, and completed over 70% of those attempts, but they have mostly been easy passes. The average yards per attempt has been 4.6, tied for the lowest in the league. Daniels has been most productive in the rushing game, as he’s carried 10 and 16 times and scored two touchdowns, with many of those schemed attempts. So far in two games, we have seen both the floor and ceiling, as he’s scored 13.44 and 28.16 FPTS. The rushing prowess provides a healthy floor and ceiling if he sees the end zone.
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Running Back
Stud
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills ($7,000) – Tank Bigsby has played well this season and been a thorn in the side for Etienne. That said, Etienne is still garnering 70% of the snaps and is the only running back to receive a target in the passing game with seven on the season. Etienne has also dominated the red zone looks with 11. The Jaguars will likely be chasing points in this one and Etienne should contribute in all phases of the game. Recency bias could elevate the ownership for Cook as well.
Other Options – James Cook ($6,800)
Value
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Commanders ($5,600) – As with the Allen recommendation, this is more for larger tournaments because I think most will be stacking the Bengals passing game. But what if the touchdowns are scored on the ground, like what Cook did for the Bills last week? The Commanders have actually been good defending the run, posting a -9.4 Rush EPA— the eighth-best in the NFL. Moss has received 65% and 80% of the snaps in the first two games and has seven red-zone opportunities. If Moss is relatively low-owned and he scores the touchdowns, you not only get the points but leap over all who stacked the passing game. Is it a high-probability play? Nope, but when factoring in potential ownership discrepancies, it could be the way to victory.
Other Options – Austin Ekeler ($5,400)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Commanders ($7,500) – Chase has been bottled up this season, catching four and six passes for 35 and 62 yards. That should change on Monday night, as the Commanders have been one of the most generous pass defenses in the league, allowing a 28 Pass EPA—the second-highest in the league. The only question is: how much will he feast?
Value
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills ($4,900) – With the Bills heavy favorites, the Jaguars will likely be chasing points. The problem is that Trevor Lawrence has been not good. Regardless, when he drops back, Thomas could be the apple of his eye. Gabe Davis has led the team with 10 targets on the season, but he’s more of a deep threat. The Bills do a good job of keeping everything in front of them and they are intimately familiar with Davis. Thomas is second on the team with eight targets, but he should get more looks as the season progresses. He’s 6-foot-3, 209 pounds and runs a 4.33 40-yard dash. He’s also not a one-trick pony, as he’s shown the ability to run a diverse route tree.
Other Options – Tee Higgins ($5,900), Khalil Shakir ($5,500), Jermaine Burton ($3,000)
Tight End
Stud
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,300) – Kincaid is the stud by default, as he’s the only tight end priced above $5,000. A ringing endorsement! After playing in 84% of the snaps in Week 1, Kincaid was in only 42% last week. He has led the tight ends in targets, but he’s only received six. Gross. The volume and target share will likely not be there because Allen has spread the ball around this season, but Kincaid is talented and could pop off at any time.
Value
Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills ($2,700) – Evan Engram is out and it’s been Strange who has stepped into his role. Engram played 68% of the snaps in Week 1 then Strange played 68% in Week 2. Strange received six targets and caught three for 65 yards. He will likely be one of the favorite targets for Lawrence.
Other Options – Mike Gesicki ($3,600), Erick All Jr. ($2,500)
Defense/Special Teams
Bills D/ST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,900) – The Bills are coming off a game in which they scored 18 FPTS. I don’t expect a repeat of that performance, as they scored a defensive touchdown and picked off three passes. But I do see them getting some sacks and possibly picking off a pass or two. The Jaguars will likely have to pass more than they want to and, while the Bills don’t have a ferocious pass rush, they do drop back in coverage and make quarterbacks hold the ball longer than they want. In addition, the Jaguars have allowed the seventh-highest quarterback pressure rate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Special [$500K to 1st] (Mon)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
