It is tough to point any direction but Philadelphia when looking at the winners of the NBA offseason. Daryl Morey’s grand ‘cap-space plan’ has paid off as the path was laid for the max contract slot and Paul George elected to take his talents across the country to return to the Eastern Conference.
The revolving door of co-stars that Joel Embiid has had throughout his career looks to finally have stopped. The Sixers have Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and now George each under contract through at least the 2027-28 season. This trio will look to establish themselves as legitimate title threats as the Sixers currently have their best outlook as a franchise they have had during the Embiid era.
In addition to George, the Sixers also added Caleb Martin in free agency, who is expected to round out the starting lineup. They re-signed Kelly Oubre Jr., drafted Duke sniper Jared McCain and brought back the best backup center Embiid has had in Andre Drummond. Olympic hero Guerschon Yabusele was also handed a prove-it deal with the final roster spot and he could be the power forward the team has been missing. Several win-now veterans such as Kyle Lowry, Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson will also fill out the bottom of the roster, providing head coach Nick Nurse with the pieces he needs to put a second championship ring on his finger.
Philadelphia enters this season with the third-best odds to win an NBA Championship at +850 on DraftKings Sportsbook. It holds the second-best odds to win the Eastern Conference at +425, trailing only the Celtics at +145. The Sixers also have +1200 odds to win the NBA Cup and have a season-long over/under of 52.5 wins with the under favored at -125 odds. Philadelphia is -3000 to make the playoffs and Joel Embiid has +600 odds of winning another MVP, which is tied for the third-best odds in the NBA.
NBA Playoff Team Seeding Under 3.5 (-110 Odds)
The questions surrounding this Sixers team will not be answered until the postseason. But there is a lot of basketball to be played until this point and expect the Sixers to give themselves the best pathway possible when the playoffs do arrive.
Last year, the Sixers ended the season as the seventh seed and were forced to fight their way out of the play-in tournament. This was almost entirely due to the injury to Embiid that held him to just 39 games, the fewest he has played since the 2016-17 season. Philadelphia was 31-8 in the games Embiid played in and just 16-27 without the MVP last year. Looking at this season, Paul George will play a major factor in giving the team a chance to win without Embiid while Andre Drummond raises the floor as the backup center.
This seventh-place finish is also an outlier for the Sixers in the Embiid era. The Sixers finished third in the East in 2022-23, fourth in 21-22, first in 2020-21, sixth in 2019-20, third in 2018-19 and third in 17-18.
Looking around the rest of the Eastern Conference, the Celtics are the favorite at +145, the Sixers are +425, the Knicks are +450 and the Bucks have +600 odds to win the East. While teams like the Cavaliers (+2200), Pacers (+2500) and the Magic (+2500) cannot be fully ruled out, it feels as if the top four in the conference are a tier above.
For most of the Embiid era in Philadelphia, the Sixers have been a good team when he is on the floor and struggled to win when he is not healthy. This is the best the organization has been equipped to survive the stretches without their superstar. Paul George and Tyrese Maxey can generate enough offense as the leads and there is a great deal of talent beyond the two All-Stars as well. Expect this to keep the team afloat in a way that hasn’t been able to be the case in past years.
While the playoffs will be the true test, expect the Sixers to mean business from start to finish this year. Having the trio of stars gives the Sixers more ways to win, so look for them to finish as a top-three seed once again this season.
Tyrese Maxey over 25.1 Points Per Game (-115 Odds)
While Embiid’s continued dominance and the addition of George may steal the headlines, don’t let Tyrese Maxey get lost in the shuffle. The former Kentucky guard has taken massive strides forward every season in the NBA and earned every penny of the max contract he signed this offseason.
Looking at last year’s stats, Maxey averaged 25.9 points and 6.2 assists per game. He also took his game to another level in the playoffs, averaging 29.6 points and 6.8 assists in the series loss to the Knicks.
Embiid’s season-long over/under sits at 32.1 points per game on DraftKings Sportsbook. Embiid led the NBA in scoring in the 2021-22 and 22-23 seasons. He would have taken the award home again last season with his 34.7 points per game if he had reached the required amount of games played. However, look for Embiid to take a statistical step back this season.
Embiid has been one of the leaders in usage percentage every season he has been in the NBA. Per basketball reference, he has never recorded a usage of less than 32.9%, which occurred in the 2019-20 season. For reference, Luka Doncic led the NBA in usage rate last season with 35.98%.
This is a two-way street in which the Sixers have not had the necessary talent for him to lean on, but Embiid also must make some stylistic changes in his play. With more talent on the roster than past seasons, look for Embiid to grow as a playmaker and reduce his score-first mindset. Expect this to be a process that is worked out throughout the season and for the Sixers to look for the best blueprint for team success.
Look for Maxey to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of this. While George will be an important part of the picture, there was some significant progress in the two-man game with Maxey and Embiid last season that will be the foundation of the whole offense. Maxey has grown into a true three-level scorer and eclipsed this scoring total last year while having a bit of down shooting years from the previous two seasons.
Though he has already been recognized as an All-Star and received the massive contract, expect this to be the season Maxey truly puts himself on the national map. Look for him to take on a larger role in the offense than is being recognized and for Maxey to eclipse 25.1 points per game again this season.
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