The NFL season is off to the races with two weeks already in the books. Nine teams remain undefeated and nine have yet to pick up their first victory so far this year. With eight games separated by spreads of three points or fewer, this will be a notable measuring stick week around the NFL.
While Aaron Rodgers and the Jets kicked off Week 3 with a convincing victory over the Patriots, here are four other takes to expect during the weekend of football.
Sam Darnold’s Redemption Tour Hits a Halt
The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the more positive storylines of the season. They produced a convincing victory over the New York Giants in the opening week and then shocked everyone by defeating the San Francisco 49ers 23-17 in Week 2.
At the heart of this has been the production of QB Sam Darnold. The former third-overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft has bounced around the past few years unable to find his professional footing. The past two weeks have been some of his most notable success as he has thrown for 476 yards and four touchdowns.
Unfortunately, look for this momentum to stop here.
The Vikings will now face off with the Houston Texans, who are also 2-0 and have deep playoff aspirations. Houston is considered a 1.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and this is a game with far more blowout potential than that number would indicate.
QB C.J. Stroud is one of the brightest young stars in the NFL who already carries himself as a seasoned veteran. He has a dynamic trio of wide receivers around him who are each effective in their roles. While the Vikings’ defense has shined so far, Houston is more dynamic than the teams they have faced, especially when considering the injury issues the 49ers are facing.
Even while having success, Darnold’s concerns are still evident. In the first two games, he has thrown two interceptions and fumbled the ball twice. Turnovers have been the root of his struggles at the NFL level and this is an issue that does not seem to be fully fixed. Expect Houston to have no trouble with the Vikings’ defense and for Darnold’s turnover issues to be the cause for defeat.
Feel confident about the -1.5 spread in favor of the Texans. This is also a game worth playing around on the alternate spread. Texans -9.5 at +298 on DraftKings Sportsbook will be a personal play of mine.
Baker Mayfield’s Redemption Tour Continues
Also entering with a 2-0 record and a successful redemption story, QB Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers will face the Denver Broncos. Tampa Bay enters as six-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Through the opening two weeks of the season, Mayfield has thrown for 474 yards and five touchdowns, which is tied for the most in the NFL.
Coming off a season in which they went 9-8 and won a playoff game, there has been a surprising lack of buzz surrounding the Buccaneers. Look for Tampa Bay to make a statement this week and produce a blowout victory against the Broncos.
Bo Nix continues to work through his rookie struggles and has thrown a league-worst four interceptions in the first two games. Denver enters coming off back-to-back losses to the Seahawks and Steelers with plenty of improvements needing to be made. As a team, it ranks 29th in scoring, 28th in offensive yards and 31st in turnovers. If Denver is to stay in the game, it is going to take an impressive defensive performance.
Don’t expect this to be the case and look for Mayfield to continue building off his success. Nix needs to continue going through the expected growing pains and there are roster concerns beyond the rookie quarterback. Look for the Buccaneers to continue strengthening their resume as a dark horse contender early on this season.
In addition to covering the 6.5-point spread, expect a big day from Mayfield. You can bet on him to throw for more than 235.5 passing yards at -115 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and also for over 1.5 touchdowns at -120 odds.
Philadelphia Eagles Make a Case for Worst Defense in the NFL
After collapsing to end last year’s season, there is still no clear outlook for the Philadelphia Eagles this season. The organization has questions at every location, including coaching and quarterback play. One area there has not been enough concern shared about is the defense. Expect that to change this week.
The Eagles are set to face off with the Saints down in New Orleans. QB Derek Carr and company have been the league’s hottest offense and scored 91 points in the first two weeks. The Saints lead the NFL in total points, passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns and score percentage while producing the third-most yards.
Looking at the Eagles’ defense, there are areas for concern. Currently, Philadelphia ranks 30th in yards allowed per game, 28th in passing yards allowed and 27th in points allowed. These numbers have been produced when facing the Falcons and Packers.
To take things a step further, the Eagles have allowed 6.4 yards per rushing attempt through the opening two games. This is considered the worst mark in franchise history and would be the 14th-worst number ever recorded in NFL history if it lasts for a season. If you were to exclude the two kneel downs by Kirk Cousins in the previous loss, the Eagles would be the ninth-worst rushing defense by allowing 6.7 yards per rushing attempt. The 315 rushing yards allowed through the opening two games are the most in the NFL since 1986. Philadelphia has also only recorded just three total sacks through the first two games and none have been through its edge rushers. The Eagles have struggled to put pressure on the quarterbacks, allowing them to sit in the pocket and pick the secondary apart.
Expect Carr and RB Alvin Kamara to make their impacts felt and pick up right where they left off the past two weeks. Don’t fully count the Eagles out of the game, but it will take a high-scoring effort for this to be the case.
Look toward the game total over at 49.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can also take the Saints team total over 26.5 at -108 odds, it is worth playing with some of the alternate lines. Over 55.5 points scored at +192 odds is especially appealing.
Kyler Murray Starts Legitimate MVP Campaign
The Arizona Cardinals are set to face off with the Detroit Lions this week. Both teams enter with 1-1 records and have a solid chance of being in the playoff mix this year.
One of the more encouraging takeaways from the first two weeks has been the return of QB Kyler Murray. The former No. 1 overall pick has shined to start this year, reminding people of the talent he still has. The two-time Pro Bowl QB and former Offensive Player of the Year has thrown for 428 yards and four touchdowns while adding 116 yards with his legs.
The 51.5 scoring total in this matchup is the highest of all Week 3 games, hinting at a high-scoring matchup. Detroit has struggled defensively in recent years. This includes ranking dead last in yards allowed in 2022 and 19th last season. The Lions have also been in the bottom 10 in scoring defense in each of the past five seasons. Detroit has found its offensive identity and is having success, but will need this to be the case to have a chance in this matchup.
Look for Murray to continue showcasing the dual-threat quarterback threat he has always been. The 27-year-old looks the healthiest he has been in years and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. showcased why he is such a dangerous weapon in his 130-yard, two-touchdown performance last week.
After Murray entered the season with +5000 odds to win MVP, this number has been cut in half to +2500 on DraftKings Sportsbook. This is now tied for 10th among all NFL players. A 3-0 start to the season and another impressive performance would cut this even shorter.
The Cardinals have put Murray in the best position he has been in for years and he looks as healthy as he has been in quite some time. Look for him to prove this is not a fluke and to deliver a big-time performance against the Lions.
A few Murray props to keep an eye on include over 232.5 passing yards (-115 dds), over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110), over 34.5 rushing yards and an anytime touchdown (+195).
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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