In the first game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader, the Bills host the Jaguars. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jaguars (+5) vs. Bills o/u 45.5
Jaguars Team Breakdown
The Jaguars are off to a disappointing 0-2 start after two lackluster offensive performances. The Jaguars put up only 17 points against a Dolphins defense that got thrashed by the Bills the following week. Then the Jaguars only scored 13 points in a home loss to the Browns. The Browns do have an elite defense and gave the Jaguars a lot of issues they would give most teams, but QB Trevor Lawrence looked a bit off. Lawrence ranks 30th in the NFL in completion percentage. He has generally not been very accurate and is struggling to generate much of anything through the air.
The Jaguars were without RB Tank Bigsby in Week 2 after he led the team in rushing in Week 1. Bigsby is technically the backup to Travis Etienne but against the Dolphins, Bigsby looked much more explosive and averaged over six yards per carry. The Jaguars will get Bigsby back this week so they will be able to use that 1-2 punch in the backfield. This is a game where the Jaguars really need to get things firing on offense before their season goes off the rails.
The Jaguars’ defense has been pretty solid this season, holding their opponents to just 19 PPG. Most importantly in this matchup, they are 11th in defensive EPA/rush and ninth in defensive rush success rate. They have been tough up front and they have faced two teams that have very good rushing attacks.
Bills Team Breakdown
The Bills have changed their offensive philosophy to become a run-first team. They are 28th in the NFL in pass-play percentage and seem happy to run the ball and use RB James Cook in the screen pass game as well. Their dominant rushing attack has actually made their passing attack way more efficient. The Bills are first in the NFL in EPA/dropback and dropback success rate. Opposing defenses are so concerned about the rushing attack that Josh Allen has wide open receivers when he does pass the ball. Allen currently ranks second in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite.
The Bills’ defense struggled in Week 1 against the Cardinals but looked really solid against the Dolphins last week. QB Tua Tagovailoa did go down with an injury in that game but the Bills were already firmly in control of the game when that happened. However, this Bills defense is really banged up early on in the season. They lost LB Matt Milano before the season started and will now be without their defensive captain, LB Terrel Bernard, and starting CB Taron Johnson for the game. Milano and Bernard are the two leaders of this defense so there will be a big hole in the middle of the field in this game.
Pick and Prediction
This game is the Jaguars’ chance to get their offense rolling. Tank Bigsby returns and they will be facing a Bills defense that is pretty beat up and missing several key pieces. If Trevor Lawrence can sharpen up a bit from what he’s shown in the first two games of the season, they should be able to move the ball through the air against the Bills, especially targeting the middle of the field in the short to intermediate pass game.
The Bills want to run the football, which the Jaguars have defended pretty well so far this season. If they can defend the run without totally loading up the box then they should be able to guard the Bills on the back end as well. The Bills’ offense has been great through two games as they develop this new system, but they are also now putting out more and more tape on what this new system will look like and opposing defenses can start to adjust to what they want to do.
Both of these teams will look to move the ball on the ground, limiting possessions and making this a lower-scoring game, which is why the total is just 45.5. That typically favors the underdog and the Jaguars are already in a desperate position in this game as the 0-2 team. Josh Allen is just 8-17-1 (32%) ATS when the Bills are favored by four or more points. This should be a close game so I am going with the Jaguars +5 as my best bet.
Best Bet: Jaguars +5
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
