The Week 3 NFL slate is full of exciting games and intense matchups. Here are my favorite bets for these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 3 Best Bets
Giants +6.5 at Browns
The Giants were in a good position to win last week until their kicker went down with an injury. They were then forced to go for a fourth-down conversion rather than kick a go-ahead field goal. Malik Nabers is showing that he can immediately generate success at the NFL level and has already become the go-to target for Daniel Jones. The Giants’ offense should have some success in this game and Daniel Jones should be able to use his legs a lot to get ahead of the Browns’ pass rush.
The defensive line is one of the Giants’ biggest strengths. Deshaun Watson’s mobility has been an issue the last couple of seasons and it was exposed in Week 1 when the Cowboys’ pass rush got to him. Last week, Watson played much better because he had a clean pocket for the most part. The Giants should be able to get after him in this game and cause some of the same issues that the Cowboys did in Week 1.
Deshaun Watson is 10-15-1 (40%) ATS as a favorite of more than a field goal and Daniel Jones is 26-21 (55.3%) ATS as an underdog. The Giants should be able to hang in this game, which should be relatively low-scoring, and stay inside the number.
Dolphins +4.5 at Seahawks
The Dolphins are moving to Skylar Thompson at QB after Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion last week. Thompson is definitely a downgrade, but not as significant as some people may think. Tagovailoa was not playing that well before his injury, ranking 20th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite. Thompson has been in this system for three seasons now and should be totally comfortable running the offense. He has a decent amount of experience filling in for Tagovailoa and even started a road playoff game against the Bills where the Dolphins just fell short but scored 31 points.
Mike McDaniel can scheme an incredibly creative offense, and will likely be excited by the opportunity to come up with new plays to make things easier for Skylar Thompson. With the array of skill position players at their disposal and the production that De’Von Achane has had already this season, the Dolphins’ offense should be just fine.
The Seahawks were thrashed on the ground by the Patriots and went to overtime in that game. The Patriots were then dominated by the Jets on Thursday Night Football. That brings into question the quality of the Seahawks team and particularly their run defense. The Seahawks weren’t able to get much push against the Patriots’ offensive line which was then dominated by the Jets. The Dolphins should be able to run the ball really effectively and hang in this game the whole way.
Panthers +6 at Raiders
I am sticking with the backup quarterback theme and betting on Andy Dalton in this spot. Bryce Young proved through two weeks that even with an improved offensive line and better weapons, he still can’t perform. Some people might not think Andy Dalton is that big of an upgrade over Bryce Young, if at all.
But he is a significant one. Last season, Bryce Young was 46th in EPA+CPOE composite among qualified quarterbacks, just behind Tyson Bagent. In relief for Young, Andy Dalton was 25th in EPA+CPOE composite, just behind Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.
Dalton would be a bottom-tier starting quarterback with those numbers but Bryce Young’s numbers would have him as a below-average backup quarterback. To make matters worse, Young has been worse than he was last season. His EPA+CPOE composite in 2023 was 0.016 and so far this year is -0.020. Dalton will be able to competently run this offense and find ways to get Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson involved in the offense.
The Raiders are riding high after their win over the Ravens but in the box score, but they were outperformed at every level by the Ravens. They got incredibly fortunate to pick up a win there and should come back down to Earth in this game. The Panthers have the benefit of potentially being overlooked. That rarely happens in the NFL. With the backup QB bump they should stay inside this number and potentially win the game outright.
Broncos +6.5 at Bucs
The Broncos played one of the league’s best defenses last week and actually moved the ball pretty well through the air, but were hurt badly by two Bo Nix interceptions. Sean Payton is a great coach, and if he can get his quarterback to limit mistakes, the Broncos can be competitive. The Broncos also need to get more production out of their running back room because Bo Nix has been their leading rusher in each of their first two games.
The Bucs have been fantastic to start the season but they are overpriced in this spot because of that. They were really lucky to win last week thanks to the Lions not being able to convert in the red zone and a couple of silly mistakes by Jared Goff. The Lions outgained the Bucs by almost 250 yards. If that game was played ten more times ,the Lions would win at least eight of them with those numbers. The Bucs shouldn’t be able to run on the Broncos at all. Pat Surtain on the back end of the Broncos secondary should make life difficult for Baker Mayfield.
Sean Payton is 78-58-3 (57.4%) ATS away from home in his career. Baker Mayfield is 15-26-1 (37%) ATS as a favorite in his career as a starter. This is the perfect spot to sell high on the Bucs and get a big number on the Broncos to cover. Bo Nix should be able to dink and dunk the ball up the field while the Broncos’ defense takes care of business.
Eagles +3 at Saints
The Eagles let the game slip away against the Falcons last week despite being the better team for 3.5 quarters. However, this is the same Eagles offense that looked fantastic against the Packers in Week 1. The Eagles could be without AJ Brown again, but they still have multiple dangerous weapons to use on offense. They should be able to work the ball on the ground efficiently with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts in this game.
The Saints have been the best offense in the NFL so far this season, and there is no doubt that new OC Klint Kubiak has improved this group a lot. However, it’s important not to take too much away from just a two-game sample size, especially when one of them was against the worst team in the league. The Saints have been really reliant on explosive plays which is less sustainable than long methodical drives. The Saints should be able to score in this game but some natural regression is coming their way.
Defensively, the Saints looked good against Bryce Young, which we can now confirm really means nothing. Against the Cowboys, the Saints’ offense punched them in the mouth so quickly that the Cowboys’ offense was reeling right away and had to go away from their initial plan to play catch up. The Cowboys actually moved the ball pretty well through the air, but had drives stall out on two failed fourth-down conversions. They also threw two interceptions when they were trying to get touchdowns to get back into the game. The Saints’ defense still needs to prove they can hold up in a back-and-forth game where the opposing offense has their whole playbook to work with.
Vikings +8/Chargers +7.5 6-point Teaser
The Vikings are one of the best-coached teams in the NFL. Kevin O’Connell has made things really easy on Sam Darnold and he is playing the best football of his career because of it. Darnold has been a top-five quarterback in the NFL this season when measuring by EPA+CPOE composite. The Vikings also got the important news that Justin Jefferson will be good to go for this game against Houston. The Texans’ defense has played two really inexperienced quarterbacks so far this season, Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams, and the Vikings should give them a much tougher test than those teams.
The Vikings also have one of the best-coached defenses in the league thanks to Brian Flores. The Vikings beat the 49ers last week thanks to Flores’ ability to confuse even the most efficient NFL quarterback in the NFL. If you don’t believe me, take it from Brock Purdy himself:
CJ Stroud has been great this season, but Flores should give him his toughest test to date. Stroud has also benefited from the great job that Joe Mixon has done running the football for the Texans. Mixon’s status, however, is in doubt for Sunday’s game and so is that of his backup Dameon Pierce. Without the threat of a rushing attack, it will only be easier for Flores to confuse Stroud.
The Chargers are my favorite teaser piece of the weekend in their matchup with the Steelers. Both of these teams want to play a similar brand of football by running the ball and playing tough defense. The Steelers might have a small edge on defense, but the Chargers have a significant edge on offense. They have a much better quarterback in Justin Herbert. Not to mention, JK Dobbins has been one of the best running backs in the league so far.
This should be a really tight low-scoring game that the Chargers should win but being able to tease them over a touchdown is the best way to go.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
