The New York Jets and New England Patriots are set to face off to start Week 3 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football.
Despite having a much different outlook entering the season, both AFC East teams hold a 1-1 record. The matchup is set to take place at Metlife Stadium, marking the home opener for the Jets. This will be the second primetime game for Aaron Rodgers and the Jets after they suffered a Week 1 week loss to the 49ers.
New York enters as 6-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Patriots are +225 underdogs on the moneyline and the over/under for the game is set at 38.5 points. While we have plenty of breakdowns regarding Pick6, DFS and Fantasy Football expectations, here is a breakdown of my favorite player props ahead of Week 3 of Thursday Night Football.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115 Odds)
The Patriots have found their identity as a run-first football team. In the first two games of the season, New England has thrown the ball 51 times and tallied 75 rush attempts as a team. Rhamondre Stevenson is the primary beneficiary of this and has received 25 and 21 carries in the opening two games. Stevenson has converted these opportunities into 201 total rushing yards on the season and tallied at least 81 yards in both games.
Expect New England to continue to lean on its identity and have a rush-heavy attack. With the game total set at 38.5, this is expected to be a slow-paced game without a ton of scoring. For reference, this is tied for the third-lowest game total of the week with only the Chargers at Steelers (35.5 points) and Packers at Titans (36.5 points) being projected with a lower total. Stevenson is a solid running back who eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards the last season he played all 17 games.
With guaranteed touches coming his way, Stevenson is a talented enough running back to be able to deliver on this number. Expect the Patriots running back to put his fingerprints on the game and for him to eclipse 65.5 rushing yards.
Garrett Wilson Over 5.5 Receptions (-115 Odds)
Garrett Wilson is one of the brightest rising stars in the NFL’s wide receiver class. The former Ohio State product eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving in both seasons of the NFL thus far while fighting through extremely poor quarterback play. While Aaron Rodgers is likely not be the perennial MVP candidate he once was, he still is the best quarterback Wilson played with by a massive margin. With that being said, the two are still working to get fully on the same page.
Through the opening two games, Wilson has caught 10 of the 17 pass attempts thrown his direction. This has led to 117 total yards and he has not found himself in the end zone yet. The 17 pass attempts thrown in Wilson’s direction leads the Jets, even while RB Breece Hall has more receptions (12).
Expect Rodgers and Wilson to continue to work toward getting on the same page. Look for there to be a conscious effort to get the ball in Wilson’s hands and for him to tally at least six catches in the primetime matchup.
Hunter Henry Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While the rushing attack will continue to be the primary focus of the Patriots, Hunter Henry is a storyline worth paying attention to. The New England tight end opened some eyes last week by recording eight receptions for 109 yards, which marks the first time he eclipsed 100 yards in a game since 2019.
The Patriots are limited at the wide receiver position with Ja’Lynn Polk, K.J. Osborn and DeMario Douglas each unproven and not showing much success yet. Through the first two games, this receiving trio has recorded just 58 total receiving yards. Henry has been the bright spot in the receiving group and will continue to be relied on by QB Jacoby Brissett.
The 33.5 receiving yard total is too low based on how important Henry is within the Patriots offense. Overall he has recorded 10 receptions for 127 yards in the first two games. Look for Henry to take a handful of receptions and eclipse this number on Thursday Night Football.
Jacoby Brissett Under 166.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While the rushing dominance is effective for the Patriots as a team, it has not been friendly to Jacoby Brissett’s box score numbers. The 31-year-old continues to serve as the Patriots starting quarterback despite the team spending the third overall pick on Drake Maye this past draft. Brissett is a journeyman who started his career with the Patriots and has started 50 games since he entered the league in 2016.
So far this season, Brissett has attempted 51 total passes for just 270 passing yards. He was held to 121 yards passing in Week 1 and just 149 last week. The Patriots and Jets is expected to be a low-scoring matchup, and New England has already shown to be comfortable relying on the running game, so don’t expect Brissett to have too many opportunities with his arm.
The 166.5 passing yard margin is too high considering the lack of opportunity Brissett will receive. Especially considering the respectable Jets defense, don’t count on this week being his breakout.
Breece Hall & Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD Parlay (+278)
In addition to the Patriots leaning on their rushing attack, Breece Hall will be the biggest red-zone threat for the Jets. Hall was responsible for 50% of the Jets’ offensive touchdowns last season. Through the opening two games of the season, Hall has tallied 207 yards from scrimmage and made his way into the end zone in both games. His ability to be effective in both the rushing and passing attack gives him the edge in this category. Hall holds -155 odds of an anytime touchdown on his own, making him the most likely player to score in the matchup as a whole.
Rhamondre Stevenson has also made his way into the end zone in both games this year. This is especially notable considering the Patriots have scored just three total touchdowns as a team. With 46 carries and five receptions so far this season, he is the most important offensive player by a notable margin. If the Patriots are to score a touchdown, Stevenson will likely be involved. He has the best odds of any Patriot player to score at +125 odds for the matchup. Considering how much opportunity is put on his plate, take a chance and include him in the parlay.
While there is a bit more risk in the anytime touchdown parlay, both of these running backs are at the epicenter of their team’s offense. Expect both to see plenty of opportunities around the goal line and for each to deliver for their teams.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
