For the second Thursday in a row, we get an AFC East matchup. This time it’s the New York Jets hosting the New England Patriots, two teams that were 29th and 32nd in points per game last season at 15.8 and 13.9 points, respectively.
yippee….
Through two games this season, the Jets are at 21.5 points per game and Aaron Rodgers is still under center. Cool, but New York is 27th in plays run per game at 52.5. Yuck. In terms of pace, though, it is 19th with 27.7 seconds per snap.
The Patriots have Jacoby Brissett under center, who has attempted only two passes over 20 yards and has two completions over 10 yards. He’s guided the team to 18 points per game and the Patriots have run 130 plays. Unfortunately, they use 30.7 seconds per snap, the fourth-highest in the NFL. New England is 28th in run/pass ratio, passing 42.31% of the time.
The Jets defense likes to play press man and is second-best in the NFL pressuring the quarterback with only four rushers. But the Patriots don’t want to pass, instead preferring to pound the rock and using the tight end through the air.
And that could spell trouble for the Jets because they have allowed 3.5 Rush EPA, the ninth-worst mark. Granted, they played one game against the San Francisco 49ers, but they are boasting a Rush EPA of -2.9 while the Patriots are at 3.4, eighth-best in the league.
The Patriots also like to play man coverage on defense. So far, they have utilized man defense 38.8% of the time, the fourth-most in the league. The Jets are two slots below at 35.3%. The differences, though, are that the Jets play more press while the Patriots play more off-man. In addition, the Patriots blitz more often than the Jets, yet they are one of the worst teams at generating pressure.
This game will likely be a defensive, grind-it-out affair. DK Sportsbook has the total at a paltry 38.5 and the Jets are -6 and -270 on the moneyline. As of Wednesday, 54% of the handle and 59% of the bets are on the Patriots to cover. 63% of the handle and 55% of the bets are on the under. 57% of the handle and 67% of the bets are on the Jets moneyline.
The only offensive skill player that was on the injury report for this game was Breece Hall (quad), but he’s been a full participant at practice. Two injuries on defense could have an impact, though. Starting linebacker and team captain Ja’Whaun Bentley (torn pec) of the Patriots is out for the season. Starting Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley (toe) is 50/50 to play Thursday. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (NE @ NYJ)
Captain’s Picks
Garrett Wilson ($15,300 CP): Breece Hall ($17,700 CP) is the better on-paper play, as he’s received eight and six targets in the first two weeks while rushing 14 and 16 times. That translated to 19.3 and 24.4 FPTS. He is also the most expensive player on the slate, $2,400 more than Wilson, and will likely be the highest-rostered player.
Wilson has only put up 12 and 10.2 FPTS so far on six and 11 targets, but I think he can get busy in this matchup. The Patriots like to play man coverage and Wilson had a 78.6% success rate vs. man coverage last season, per Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception.
In addition, the Patriots like to blitz but still have difficulty getting pressure, so Rodgers shouldn’t have too much difficulty finding Wilson. Over the last two seasons, Wilson put up over 20 FPTS six times with Zach Wilson primarily throwing him the ball.
UTIL Plays
Hunter Henry ($7,800): Henry received 12 targets in Week 1 and the aerial attack will likely flow through him once again, as the Jets have excellent cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner, Michael Carter II and D.J. Reed. Brissett doesn’t throw the ball deep and the wide receivers will likely get locked down, especially since the Jets play a lot of man defense. The Jets will likely be able to put up some points, so the Patriots will likely have to throw more than they want to.
Breece Hall ($11,800): Hall has carried the ball 14 and 16 times this season, but it’s been the involvement in the passing game that has provided an excellent floor/ceiling combo. Hall has received eight and six targets, converting those into seven and five receptions. He has one receiving touchdown and a red-zone look in each of the first two games. The Jets have a fairly concentrated offense and the expected volume in a potentially low-scoring game is too much to ignore.
Greg Zuerlein ($5,000) and Joey Slye ($4,800): I think both kickers are in play tonight. There will likely be few big plays, so both offenses will have to slowly matriculate down the field. Both teams have played good pass defense in the red zone. The Jets are top in Pass EPA at -14.4 while the Patriots are 10th at -5.6. In terms of red-zone rush defense, the Patriots have a -0.5 Rush EPA while the Jets haven’t been great at 1.1, but I think Jets DC Jeff Ulbrich can scheme some things due to the big advantages he has in his cornerbacks vs. the Patriots wide receivers.
Fades
Rhamondre Stevenson ($11,400): I’m not particularly happy about this fade because I can see the path to where he dominates, especially since the Jets have been so porous in rush defense. That said, he’s the second-most expensive player on the slate and I prefer paying up for the Jets options. Can’t fit everyone in. As mentioned in the kicker section above, I think there’s a chance the Jets can slow down Stevenson due to their CB/WR advantage.
THE OUTCOME
I think this is going to be a relatively low-scoring game again. While I liked the under last week, I saw paths to where that game could explode. I do not see those paths this week. The loss of Ja’Whaun Bentley is huge for the Patriots and their inability to pressure the quarterback should make life easy for Aaron Rodgers to slice and dice.
Final Score: Jets 23, Patriots 15
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (NE @ NYJ)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
