Last year, the Cowboys extended their regular season home winning streak to 16 games. They had the highest point differential at home. They had the highest turnover differential to home.
Now, go look at the playoff loss to the Packers and their Week 2 loss against the Saints. They got pulverized. Whatever mojo the Cowboys had at home is gone.
The Cowboys have to figure this out because this is an eminently winnable division. It’s really between them and the Eagles.
Historically, this is a Cowboys team that’s been inconsistent. Good one year, bad the next on repeat. That’s just sort of the way they are.
The Cephalopod
New Orleans has opened the season scoring 40 points in back-to-back weeks, which is extremely rare. (The only other time the Saints have done this was their Super Bowl-winning season.)
People seemed to sort of forget about Alvin Kamara, who I’ve always called “The Cephalopod” because you almost never get a square hit on him. Kamara almost slithers away. He doesn’t take a lot of those big hits. He finds a way to avoid that massive contact, which is one of his greatest gifts.
Then there’s Derek Carr, who I think is a very undervalued and underappreciated quarterback. Is he Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Aarond Rodgers or Josh Allen? No, but he’s not that far behind. Carr has put up good numbers in multiple seasons. He’s undervalued, and he’s a guy you can win with.
AFC North upside down
Everyone keeps saying the Bengals will be fine. But, will they?
The Ja’Marr Chase situation is a problem. He lost it when he didn’t get a hip-drop tackle call on a play he thought he should have. (By the way, that wasn’t a hip-drop tackle.)
Over the summer, I shared that I talked to people in-the-know in Cincinnati, and they said the vibe isn’t good. Now, here they are at 0-2 — and people can have whatever opinion they want about the 4th-and-16 call. (It was obvious pass interference.)
Two of the teams that we thought would be really big contenders against the Chiefs in the AFC find themselves not only 0-2, but they also have the tiebreaker lost to the Chiefs. The other team, of course, being the Ravens — who are the first team in 22 years to have the reigning MVP and start 0-2.
I think there are real issues in Baltimore, and I think there are real issues in Cincinnati. But, I do think either of them could both bounce back because they have legitimate quarterbacks.
You can have your arguments about whether or not Lamar Jackson is going to be that kind of guy who gets it done in the playoffs. I think that’s a fair assessment, but he is the reigning MVP — and a two-time MVP. Burrow has never been an MVP, but he’s had his success and is the only active quarterback who has a playoff win over Patrick Mahomes.
The other thing is when you look at how Mahomes has played against Cincinnati. Yes, Kansas City has won three in a row, but Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo tends to make Mahomes look more human than anybody else in the NFL.
As for the Steelers, who are +270 to win the division and +135 to finish with over 9.5 wins on DraftKings Sportsbook following their 2-0 start: Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record. I know people think that’s not good enough in Pittsburgh — I get that — but there have been two dynasties in the AFC during Tomlin’s tenure (Patriots and Chiefs). Those teams have been better than the Steelers. But, what Tomlin does better than any other coach is give his team an opportunity while having sub-standard quarterback play.
Since Ben Roethlisberger retired, Tomlin has done the hardest thing: maintain a winning formula and culture year after year without a quarterback. Even this year, as good as they’ve been through the first two weeks, the quarterback play has been OK. Not great, but OK.
That said, Justin Fields may be working his way into something. I was shocked that the Steelers threw all of their weight behind Russell Wilson. You’ve got both of these QBs playing at a discounted rate between Wilson’s contract situation and Fields being on his rookie contract. Why not not see if you can develop the guy who’s a decade younger?
Now that they’ve started 2-0, I don’t see any scenario — barring three straight losses — why they would go back to Wilson.
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