GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 2.
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Top DFS Stacks
Game Stack: Cardinals vs Rams
Kyler Murray ($6,600) – Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,900) – Greg Dortch ($4,600) – Kyren Williams ($6,800)
Kyler Murray couldn’t land the W last week but he still managed 57 rush yards on 5 carries and probably would have had more fantasy points last week if not for some weird game flow, which included a Cardinals return touchdown. This week, he faces a weaker Rams’ secondary that allowed Jared Goff ($6,300) 7.8 yards per attempt, so it’s quite likely that we see a little volume and production from Murray the passer.
Of course, the reason why Murray may be such a good fantasy option this season also has a lot to do with his defense, which was terrible once again in Week 1. Rams RB Kyren Williams ($6,800) tore this D/ST apart on multiple occasions in 2023, going for 158 yards rushing and a touchdown against them in Week 6 last season and 148 yards rushing, plus 62 yards receiving and two touchdowns, in Week 12. I do think Matthew Stafford could have himself a big day, but with Puka Nacua injured, I also expect the Rams will attempt to rely heavily on Williams again in this spot, who carried them to two wins against Arizona last season.
Of course, if Williams does go off, that will mean more dropbacks for Murray and potentially some big days for his receivers. Greg Dortch led the Cardinals in receiving last week and had a 27% target share, which was tops on the team. His skill-set fits well with Murray, who likes to create on the run and Dortch should get weaker coverage again this week against a Rams’ secondary that is missing two of its top three cornerbacks. However, if we’re playing for a big day from Murray, then I’m also prone to go big and add the more expensive and now much-maligned Marvin Harrison Jr. into this stack.
Harrison was terrible in Week 1, failing to find much separation or show elite speed on any of his routes. Still, it’s a one-game sample and as mentioned previously, this Rams secondary has holes. Harrison is almost guaranteed to garner low ownership this week as a result of his Week 1 dud, making him the perfect GPP play to round out this stack.
Finally, if you’re looking to add a little more Rams firepower, the low prices on Tyler Johnson ($3,300) and Tutu Atwell ($3,700) need mentioning. With Nacua out, one or both of those WRs could get extra looks and will be live to bring in a long touchdown against this suspect secondary.
Quarterback
Daniel Jones ($5,300)
This pick comes with a lot of risk, but the range of outcomes this week with Jones also includes a lot of upside scenarios. The Commanders’ defense was bad last week, historically bad. They allowed Baker Mayfield ($5,900) to complete 80% of his passes and throw for 4 touchdowns, while also throwing for 9.3 yards per attempt. They were the worst defense in EPA per play and EPA per drop back in Week 1.
Jones was not good in Week 1 himself but he may have been facing an underrated Vikings defense that held him to just 4.4 yards per attempt. One thing is certain is that if Malik Nabers ($5,900) is 100%, Jones should improve on that number. We only have one week to judge these players by so far and right now everyone will be out on Jones, despite him having the best matchup on the slate. Pairing him with Nabers and potentially even Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,300) could provide the sort of low-owned, low-priced stack that gets you to the top of a GPP.
Running Back
Top End: Josh Jacobs ($6,500)
Jacobs started his Green Bay career slowly but ended strong, finishing the Eagles game with a 5.3 yard-per-carry mark (16-84). He also added two catches as a receiver and could be used more in that capacity with a more limited-pocket QB now under center.
Regardless, the Colts look like a solid matchup for Jacobs as they ranked 28th in EPA against the run last week, allowing Joe Mixon to rush for 159 yards and 5.3 yards per carry. Jacobs did pop up on the injury report this week (back) but by all accounts, it just looks like the Packers are being extra cautious with their lead back. If anything, the Q-tag may help keep his ownership lower for larger GPPs, making him a solid pay-up option in larger fields.
Low End: Chase Brown ($4,700)
The Bengals backfield got sorted out to an extent in Week 1, with Zack Moss ($5,600) handling more short-down work and Chase Brown being used more as a change of pace. It’s not the start you wanted to see quite frankly if you like Brown, but it’s also created somewhat of a buy-low opportunity heading into a big game against the Chiefs.
Kansas City is far better defending against explosive plays downfield than they are defending swing passes and screens out of the backfield and that was on firm display in Week 1 as they allowed Justice Hill ($5,200) to post 52 yards and six catches as a receiver. It’s also not out of the question that Brown may be more heavily involved this week in the passing game, just given the struggles of some of the Bengals receivers last week. Either way, with his price now under $5K, Brown makes for a nice value in the RB pool and a potentially under-the-radar option if you are going contrarian and stacking the Bengals’ passing game.
Wide Receiver
Top End: DK Metcalf ($5,900)
I’m inclined to just hit the buy anytime DK Metcalf goes under 6k in price on DraftKings. The WR had an inauspicious start to the season with just three catches for 29 yards on four targets. However, he was facing a ton of Patrick Surtain II last week, who may be the best corner in football. Metcalf faces another tough corner in Week 2 in Christian Gonzalez, but I’d hesitate to put the second-year player on Surtain’s level just yet.
At just 22 years of age, asking Gonzalez to handle the strength of a player like Metcalf might be asking a little too much, and with the Seahawks also potentially being without their top RB in Kenneth Walker (oblique), I would look for them to force the ball to Metcalf more in this game and see if he can’t provide them with more explosive plays. Metcalf feels like he’s going a little under the radar right now and for big GPPs, his price makes him an easy fit alongside another stud WR.
Low End: Rashod Bateman ($3,900)
Bateman came out of the gates with a 53-yard performance against the Chiefs, posting two catches on five targets. The Ravens WR is sharing targets with both an elite TE group and rookie Zay Flowers ($6,300), who takes up a lot of usage in the short passing game. Still, Bateman is the Ravens’ best downfield option and got free for a big play or two against a stout Chiefs secondary last week. He was also on the field a ton and had an 88% route rate in Week 1, so there is the potential that his opportunities will rise in this spot, especially against weaker competition.
The Raiders should also be hyper-focused on ensuring the Ravens’ tight ends don’t post big games after what happened to the Chiefs in Week 1, and that kind of overreaction could leave Bateman in nice one-on-one situations in this game. At under $4K, he’s a solid dart-throw this week in my eyes in a game where the Ravens sit with a big 25.0 point team total.
Tight End: Greg Dulcich ($2,900)
Dulcich’s stats from Week 1 are encouraging. The third-year Broncos tight end was on the field for 60% of the snaps and had a 69% route rate, meaning he saw fairly substantial usage as a receiver. His 2 receptions for 12 yards stat line last game doesn’t jump out but he out-targeted Adam Trautman ($2,700), 3-1, and is likely the Broncos’ most athletic receiver at its point given the sorry state of their wide receiver room.
The Steelers allowed an average of 48 yards per game to the tight end position last season and allowed 7 touchdowns to the position as well, which was tied for the fourth-most in the league. At under $3K, Dulcich is the kind of receiver who could push for 50 yards and a touchdown on very small usage, and with a great matchup against a team that defends the boundaries better than they do the middle of the field, he makes sense as a low-owned dart throw at this volatile position in Week 2.
Defense/Special Teams
Broncos ($2,800)
The Broncos D/ST had a great Week 1, producing 10.0 DKFP, two safeties, and two turnovers. They eventually got beat by a solid Seattle offense, but gave them all sorts of issues in the first half. This week they face a much less explosive Steelers team that failed to score a touchdown in Week 1 with lead RB Najee Harris ($5,500), who is not Kenneth Walker, coming in off a 3.5 yards per carry performance.
Denver is set as a small underdog and with most DFS players simply looking at the final score from last week’s game, their defense will surely go unnoticed for the most part. The fact is, they should have a fairly substantial edge in this game against a very mediocre Steelers offense and will be at home in Denver where teams can often struggle in the thin air. Denver may not quite be an elite team yet, but its D/ST looks promising and they make for a solid GPP play this week at under $3K.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
