There is a great divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 2 of the NFL season. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bills (+2) vs. Dolphins o/u 49
Bills Team Breakdown
The Bills had to come from behind to beat the Cardinals in their season opener. They trailed 17-3 in the 2nd quarter, but Josh Allen took the game over and secured a win for the Bills. The Bills’ offense was very run-heavy like they were at the end of last season. James Cook and Josh Allen were a two-pronged attack in the running game and went for a combined 110 yards on the ground. Through the air, Josh Allen spread the love across a multitude of targets, but rookie WR Keon Coleman led the way with four catches for 51 yards.
Defensively, the Bills have some issues to work out. LB Matt Milano, who is the quarterback of their defense, is out for an extended period of time and they missed him in Week 1. The defense gave up far too many third-down conversions and allowed Kyler Murray to scramble around and make plays at will. They toughened up some in the second half but allowed way too many yards after the catch and allowed short passes to become explosive plays.
Dolphins Team Breakdown
The Dolphins also had to come from behind to win against the Jaguars on Sunday. They were down 17-7 at halftime and allowed the Jaguars to move the ball easily in the first half. In the second half, the defense got much stronger, particularly against the pass. They held Trevor Lawrence to under 200 passing yards, but they were quite vulnerable to the run. The Jaguars went for 128 yards on the ground on nearly five yards per carry.
On offense, it was all Tua for the Dolphins. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill both went for over 100 receiving yards, and the Dolphins’ offense started to hit some explosive plays in the second half. This team might be too dependent on the explosive play, but their ability to hit them is also a huge strength. The health of the running backs is something to watch this week as well. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert both missed practice on Monday with injuries they picked up over the weekend. In a short week, it could be an issue for the Dolphins to get them back healthy, leaving them depleted in the run game.
Pick and Prediction
The Bills are weak at safety, which is bad news when you are facing the Dolphins. Mike McDaniel will try to scheme ways to get the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle over the top, where they can use their speed to exploit the Bills on the back end. That being said, if the Dolphins are banged up at running back, it could allow the Bills to sell out to defend the pass and limit those deep shots.
The Dolphins were vulnerable to the run last week, which is bad news against this Bills team. OC Joe Brady has shown that he wants this to be a dominant rushing team, and they will be more physical than the Dolphins’ defense up front. The Bills should use their quarterback and James Cook to move the ball down the field methodically.
Both of these offenses match up well against the opposing defense. Normally, that would lend itself to an over, but it is supposed to be very hot and potentially rainy in Miami. Also, both teams are on a short week, playing on Thursday night, which scares me off of that bet. Instead, I will back Josh Allen to rush for a touchdown. Allen rushed for two touchdowns in Week 1 after scoring 18 touchdowns in 19 games last season. With James Cook being more of a speedy back, it looks like Allen will be the go-to runner when Buffalo gets close to the end zone. They will use Allen on designed runs, and he will be quick to scramble on busted plays against a vulnerable Dolphins’ front seven.
Best Bet: Josh Allen anytime TD (-115)
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