Week 1 is in the books. Some teams cooked while others looked completely shook. We mistook the Chicago hype for reality, as its offense failed to elevate like a Chinook. But we also learned that age ain’t nothing but a number, as a touchdown was scored by 30-year-old Brandin Cooks. Baker Mayfield flipped through the Washington defense like an eBook. J.K. Dobbins powered through the Las Vegas defense like a rook. Let’s be real here, though. Whatever happened or didn’t happen, the NFL knows it has us by the hook.
Now begins the foray into Week 2. It’s a tricky week because nothing from Week 1 is guaranteed to stick like glue. Let’s remember, coaches had all offseason to brew up game plans to subdue. Many of the performances from Week 1 aren’t true, so we must remember that they aren’t permanent like a tattoo. So let us focus on putting one shoe in front of the other. Wipe away the dew. Look at the box scores, film and stats anew. Try to filter out what is untrue while not forgetting what we just went through. Throw everything into the pot, stir and see what we can stew.
There are 13 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has five games with an O/U of at least 45: NO/DAL (45.5), SF/MIN (45.5), TB/DET (51.5), LAR/ARI (49.5) and CIN/KC (48). There are three games with a total of 40 or below: PIT/DEN (36.5), SEA/NEP (38) and LAC/CAR (38.5).
There is one double-digit spread – BAL -10 over LVR. There are five games within a field goal: IND -3 over GB, WAS -1.5 over NYG, PIT -2.5 over DEN, ARI -1.5 over LAR and JAX -3 over CLE. There are five home dogs: CAR, GB, NE, TEN and DEN.
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Quarterback
Stud
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants ($6,200) – The rookie was great in his NFL debut, going 17-of-24 for 184 yards through the air and rushing 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns. That translated to 28.2 FPTS. He had a passer rating of 93.1 and rushed nine yards over expectations, per Next Gen Stats.
Most of his passes were completed within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, with six behind the line of scrimmage. In Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings, the New York Giants allowed a 2.4 Pass EPA and 50% success rate. They blitzed 23.1% of the time and played zone defense 73.1% of the time. The unit did get pressure on 45% of snaps when only rushing four, so there’s some concern there, but the rushing prowess of Daniels will likely neutralize that.
And it is the legs of Daniels that make him fantasy gold. In Week 1, nine of the 16 rushes were designed. He clocked at least 18 MPH on five running plays with a high mark of 20 MPH on a 17-yard scramble.
The floor/ceiling combo is too enticing, especially considering the price and potential positive game environment, because the Commanders defense continues to be Swiss cheese.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($7,700), Anthony Richardson ($6,800), Kyler Murray ($6,600), Jared Goff ($6,400)
Value
Daniel Jones, New York Giants at Washington Commanders ($5,300) – It’s early, but I’m thinking Jones is going to gain traction as the week progresses. Yes, he was awful Week 1, throwing two interceptions and producing a measly 6.94 FPTS. That said, he attempted 42 passes while rushing six times.
Jones is the ultimate boom-or-bust quarterback. We saw the floor last week, but in the past, Jones has put up some monster games. Last season, he went for 34.7 FPTS against the Arizona Cardinals, going 26-of-37 for 321 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while rushing nine times for 59 yards and a touchdown. In 2022, he had two games over 30 FPTS while just missing a third by 0.4 FPTS. In 2021, he had one game over 30 FPTS and posted four games over 30 FPTS during his rookie season.
Granted, the Commanders have done a decent job bottling up Jones in the past, but this Washington defense is much different than those past iterations. Last season, the Commanders defense allowed the most passing touchdowns and a whopping 82.5 Pass EPA! Jones did not play against Washington last season due to injury. The Cardinals were second at 65.1. Last week, the Commanders allowed 22.2 Pass EPA, top in the league.
I do like this game environment. Is it the best one on the slate? Not yet, but I think it can be a back-and-forth affair. DK Sportsbook has this game with the tighest spread at 1.5 points with a decent O/U of 44. In addition, there’s a chance many go with Daniels in this contest, leaving Jones lower-owned but possessing a similar ceiling.
Other Options – Matthew Stafford ($6,000), Baker Mayfield ($5,900)
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Running Back
Stud
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers ($7,700) – When paying up at running back, I usually like to click on someone who will catch passes. Taylor did not receive a target last week and, despite having 123 receptions in 54 career games, I don’t expect many targets for as long as Anthony Richardson is the quarterback. Now, if the projected ownership gets too high, then I will have no issue pivoting down, but as it stands now, I like this spot a lot for Taylor.
The Packers will be without Jordan Love and, while this game is in Green Bay, the Colts are three-point favorites with the total at 40.5.
Last week, the Packers’ run defense got gashed by the Philadelphia Eagles for 144 yards and two touchdowns. The Eagles have the second-best offensive line according to PFF. Well, the Colts are right behind at number three.
The Colts only ran 43 plays last week, as the Houston Texans doubled them up in time of possession (40 to 20 minutes) and ran a whopping 76 plays on offense. There’s a good chance that the Colts dictate the pace of play in Week 2, which should allow Taylor to get over 20 carries in this one with some red zone opportunities.
Other Options – Breece Hall ($7,400), Isiah Pacheco ($6,900), Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600), Josh Jacobs ($6,500), James Conner ($6,400), Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,200)
Value
Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings ($5,200) – Mason will likely be the highest rostered player this week. And for good reason, because Christian McCaffrey ($8,700) is unlikely to play after missing Monday night’s game and this being a short week. In addition, Mason balled out in his first career start, rushing 28 times for 147 yards and a touchdown while catching one pass for five yards.
The 49ers have one of the best offenses in the league and Mason should get the bulk of the work if McCaffrey is out. The floor/ceiling combo combined with the price tag makes Mason one of the best plays on the slate. But when you factor in ownership, then the math changes.
Decisions, decisions.
In small-field and single-entry tournaments, just lock and load. In bigger tournaments, I could see a scenario in which Dobbins matches or even exceeds Mason’s production at likely much lower ownership.
Other Options – David Montgomery ($6,000), Zach Charbonnet ($5,800) if Walker III is out, Zack Moss ($5,600), J.K. Dobbins ($5,400)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals ($7,600) – This is not rocket science. Puka Nacua is out for at least the next four weeks. Kupp is going to eat, then eat some more, and when the owner of the buffet screams, “You been here four hours! You go home now!,” Kupp is going to continue eating. Last week, Kupp received a career-high 21 targets, which he converted into 14 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown. For perspective, there have only been 55 other instances when a player garnered at least 20 targets in a game. The first season Matthew Stafford arrived to Los Angeles, he peppered Kupp with 191 targets, propelling Kupp to his historic 145-catch, 1,947-yard, 16-touchdown season.
Other Options – CeeDee Lamb ($8,800), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100), Mike Evans ($7,500), Garrett Wilson ($7,100), Deebo Samuel ($6,800), Rashee Rice ($6,700), Zay Flowers ($6,300)
Value
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions ($3,600) – My initial thought was that many will gravitate toward Tyler Johnson and Allen Lazard this week, as Johnson filled in for Nacua and received seven targets while Lazard scored two touchdowns. They are also $300 cheaper than McMillan. But McMillan played 83% of the snaps in Week 1, which led the Bucs wide receiver group. Granted, he only received one target, but that was for a 32-yard touchdown. McMillan runs a 4.47 40-yard dash and this game has the highest total on the slate at 51.5 points and will be played on the fast track in Detroit.
Other Options – Chris Godwin ($6,000), Jayden Reed ($6,000), Malik Nabers ($5,900), Terry McLaurin ($5,700), Jameson Williams ($5,300), Ladd McConkey ($4,900), Greg Dortch ($4,600), Wan’dale Robinson ($4,300), Demarcus Robinson ($4,000), Tyler Johnson ($3,300), Allen Lazard ($3,300)
Tight End
Stud
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. Las Vegas Raiders ($5,000) – The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Never listen to Chicken Little. Isaiah Likely was THE story at the tight end position in Week 1, as he hauled in nine of 12 targets for 111 yards. It’s definitely encouraging for Likely that the Ravens utilized two tight end sets almost 70% of the time. That said, Andrews ran 28 routes while Likely ran 24. Andrews was doubled often in Week 1, which allowed Likely to shine. The ownership will likely skew toward Likely this week, so I’m back on Andrews.
Other Options – Sam LaPorta ($6,300), Travis Kelce ($6,200), Trey McBride ($6,000), Isaiah Likely ($4,800)
Value
Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals ($3,100) – Parkinson caught four of five targets for 47 yards in Week 1. That’s nothing to write home about, but Parkinson dominated the tight end snaps for the Rams, receiving 88% with Davis Allen and Hunter Long at eight and four percent respectively. With Puka Nacua out, some of the target share past Kupp’s could head toward Parkinson.
Other Options – Brock Bowers ($4,400), Jordan Akins ($3,000), Luke Schoonmaker ($2,900)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Cowboys D/ST vs. New Orleans Saints ($4,000) – The Saints have the 31st-ranked offensive line, according to PFF. In Week 1, the Cowboys defense had the third-best pressure rate at 44.6%, with 40.5% of those coming while rushing only four defenders. Last season, New Orleans QB Derek Carr had the second-largest decrease in completion percentage when not pressured vs. pressured – 76.1% vs. 49.4%, per Next Gen Stats.
Other Options – Jets D/ST ($3,800), Ravens D/ST ($3,700), 49ers D/ST ($3,600), Steelers D/ST ($3,500), Chargers D/ST ($3,400), Chiefs D/ST ($3,200)
Value
Patriots D/ST vs. Seattle Seahawks ($2,800) – The Patriots went into Cincinnati and strutted out with the 16-10 win in Week 1. It was all about the defense, as New England held the Bengals to 224 yards of total offense. The Bengals managed only 16.7% of runs over expectations, the third-lowest mark. The -13.8 Pass EPA was the sixth-lowest mark in Week 1. The unit racked up three sacks and finished with 11 FPTS.
Seattle had a relatively easy time with the Broncos defense, as it was able to rush 33 times for 146 yards. It won’t be easy to replicate that feat in New England this week. The Seahawks will likely have to turn to the air more than they want and, with the 29th-ranked offensive line according to PFF, there could be more chances for sacks and turnovers.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
