Oh, how a week can change things.
Flashback to last week and Notre Dame had produced its biggest win in the Marcus Freeman era. Going blow-for-blow with 20th-ranked Texas A&M and coming out on top in a gutsy 23-13 victory felt like a defining victory that Notre Dame needed.
One week later, they are the new standard for the biggest upset of the 2024 college football season.
With the home crowd behind them, Notre Dame faced off against Northern Illinois University. The Fighting Irish closed as 28-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, and a ridiculous -6500 on the money line. Northern Illinois closed as +2000 underdogs on the money line.
Fairly early in the game, it was clear this perceived surefire victory was not this. NIU took a 10-7 lead out of the first quarter and expanded it to 13-7 heading into halftime.
Jeremiyah Love broke free for a 34-yard run in the 3rd quarter, allowing the Fighting Irish to take back the lead 14-13. It looked as if Notre Dame was going to escape with an ugly victory until the Huskies took the ball back with 5:24 left on the clock.
Soaking up as much time as they could, NIU drove down and set up its kicker, Kanon Woodill, for a 35-yard field goal. This gave NIU the 16-14 lead with just 31 seconds left on the clock.
Riley Leonard attempted to do the impossible and lead the Fighting Irish down the field in this short amount of time. Notre Dame gave its kicker, Mitch Jeter, a longshot chance at a 62-yard field goal with five seconds on the clock.
But in a fitting representation of Notre Dame’s season, the field goal was blocked at the line.
The Unfortunate Notre Dame Takeaways
Riley Leonard is Not the Guy:
Notre Dame has been seeking a quarterback capable of raising their ceiling to a true National Championship contender. There was some real hope that Riley Leonard could be this guy after joining the Fighting Irish through the transfer portal. After spending three seasons at Duke in which he developed each season, Leonard was expected to be a dual-threat weapon the program needed.
While they are only two games in, the unfortunate reality is this is not the case.
Leonard struggled in the opening matchup against Texas A&M. He completed 18 of his 30 passes for just 158 yards without producing a touchdown. He also added 63 yards on 12 carries with his legs. This was looked at as somewhat excusable considering Texas A&M is regarded to have one of the better defenses in college football, and ultimately Leonard did enough for Notre Dame to get the win.
However, looking worse against a Northern Illinois team that went 7-6 last season against the second-easiest strength of schedule in all of college football is straight-up inexcusable.
Leonard finished the massive upset with a pair of interceptions and completed 20 of his 32 passes for just 163 yards. While he found his way into the end zone with his legs, Leonard added just 16 yards on his 11 carries. He failed to put the team in a position to win throughout the matchup and ultimately is the biggest concern for Notre Dame in both the short and long term.
Playoff Hopes May be Shattered:
The college football playoff landscape has changed in a way that we still have not seen the full effects of yet. With this year marking the first-ever 12-team playoff format, teams will not be required to have as pristine of a resume to still have a chance at the National Championship trophy.
However, the loss to Northern Illinois may still be too notable of a blemish to overlook.
Heading into Week 1, the Fighting Irish held +2200 odds to win the National Championship, which was tied for the eighth-best odds in the country on DraftKings Sportsbook. They also held -160 odds to qualify for the 12-team playoff. Following the victory over Texas A&M, the Fighting Irish saw their National Championship odds drop to +1700 and playoff odds to -360.
While the dust still must fully settle from this week of college football, the Fighting Irish are now holding +7000 odds to win the National Championship. This means there are 15 teams more likely to win it all based on DraftKings Sportsbook odds.
There is still plenty of football left to be played, but Notre Dame has a great deal of work to do to pick itself up off the matt.
For now, the story should be celebrating Northern Illinois. Head coach Thomas Hammock has his team playing the right way and this is the first victory over a Top-10 team in program history. Victories like this can have massive ripple effects for the program in the long run and they could grow into a story to watch moving forward.
The madness of college football is officially here.
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