These are my picks to win every Week 1 NFL game on Sunday and Monday night. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 1 Confidence Picks
I am going to give my straight-up winner picks for every NFL game and tier them based on my confidence level in those teams.
High Confidence
Bengals over Patriots- The Bengals are the biggest Week 1 favorite and for good reason. Even with a depleted wide receiver group, Joe Burrow should be able to put up points. On the other side, Jacoby Brissett could really struggle with inexperienced weapons and a shaky offensive line.
Seahawks over Broncos- The Seahawks get to take on rookie QB Bo Nix in their home stadium for his first career NFL start. The Seahawks have so many weapons on offense that they should hit the ground running and not allow Nix to catch up.
Lions over Rams- The Rams have a great offense but they have some issues on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions’ offense is fantastic, especially on their home field. The Lions will be one of the best teams in the NFC and should get a win in their season opener.
Medium Confidence
Texans over Colts- CJ Stroud got two new weapons added to his offense in Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. This Texans offense should be one of the best in the NFL right from the jump. On the other side, Anthony Richardson has a high upside but it could take some time for him to get going after missing so much time in his rookie season.
Vikings over Giants- The Vikings have an elite coaching staff and the best wide receiver in football. This will be a game of small margins but those should be the difference makers to push the Vikings over the Giants on Sunday.
Falcons over Steelers- The Falcons have the much better offense in this matchup. While it should be a defensive game, the Falcons have the weapons to pull off the couple of plays that will mean the difference between winning and losing. Kirk Cousins will be able to get the ball to Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts in space to let them make plays.
Bills over Cardinals- The Bills are one of the bigger favorites on Sunday but I am not as confident. The Bills will likely still win the game but the Cardinals should have an exciting offense and can exploit a vulnerable Bills’ defense. This one will be close but Josh Allen will make a winning play in the end.
Low Confidence
Panthers over Saints- This is the first upset I am picking on the slate. I am high on the Panthers’ new offense with Head Coach Dave Canales and WRs Xavier Legette and Diontae Johnson added to the mix. The Saints also have some major red flags around their roster from a personnel and off-the-field standpoint.
Cowboys over Browns- The Cowboys are small underdogs and this should be a tight low-scoring game but ultimately the better offense will make a winning play. The Browns have an elite defense but they could be pretty shaky on the offensive side of the ball. The Cowboys might not be as good offensively as they were last season but having CeeDee Lamb gives them a big advantage.
Jets over 49ers- The upsets roll on. The Jets won as underdogs on Monday Night Football in Week 1 of last season against the Bills despite Aaron Rodgers going down with an injury four plays into the game. If Rodgers stays healthy this could be a really dangerous offense with Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson and an improved offensive line. The Jets also have an elite defense to contain all of the 49ers’ weapons.
Chargers over Raiders- This should be another tight lower-scoring game but ultimately I am going to back the team with the better quarterback. I am worried about the weapons Justin Herbert has at his disposal not being good enough but Herbert is much better than Gardner Minshew and should find a way to win this game.
Coin-Flip Games
Dolphins over Jaguars- This should be a really tight one. Both of these offenses are really exciting and should both move the ball effectively. The Dolphins have the home-field advantage and slightly better offensive weapons and that should be the difference to get them a win by a field goal.
Bears over Titans- These teams are really close talent-wise but I am a believer that Caleb Williams can win right away in the NFL. This should be another game that comes down to the final possession and it could go either way but I am willing to roll with the Bears at home.
Commanders over Bucs- This is the game I am least confident in when it comes to picking a winner. The Bucs are the more experienced team but I think they are heading in the wrong direction as a roster and coaching staff. Betting on Jayden Daniels on the road in his first career NFL game is a bit scary but I’ll go with the Commanders to pull off the Week 1 upset.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
