In today’s NBA, averaging 20 points per game isn’t as rare as it once was. With the league’s increasing focus on faster pace, three-point shooting volume, and the growth of individual skill-sets, more players are reaching that mark.
However, the achievement still holds significance, especially for players looking to solidify themselves. For some, averaging 20 points signals a breakout season amid the development process. For others, it’s a return to form after a down year.
A new player averages prop from DraftKings Sportsbook features odds for players to average 20 or more points per game during the upcoming regular season. I picked out some names that stood out.
James Harden Poised to Score More?
James Harden embraced his role as the facilitator for an offense that included Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the wing. At times, Harden shared the backcourt with Russell Westbrook. He averaged only 16.6 points per game during his 2023-24 campaign, after coming off an 11-year stretch of averaging over 21 points per game.
Before last season, it didn’t matter which superstars Harden played alongside—he consistently scored at a high volume. He’s currently +200 on DraftKings Sportsbook to average at least 20 points per game in the upcoming season.
Due mainly to George’s exit, and Westbrook’s to a lesser extent, Harden is positioned to be more aggressive as a scorer. In six games last season without George, Harden averaged 21 points and 9.8 assists. This could be a glimpse of his role without George, especially with Leonard possibly missing games as he recovers from a knee injury.
OKC Thunder Stars Primed for More Touches?
As the Oklahoma City Thunder develop their core, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren appear ready to take another step forward. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is bound to remain one of the NBA’s top scorers, which may limit others’ short-term scoring potential. However, there’s more to consider.
With Josh Giddey being traded for Alex Caruso, the Thunder lost a player who took 10.6 field goal attempts per game in exchange for a 3-and-D role player. This change could provide both Williams and Holmgren with expanded offensive opportunities.
After averaging 19.1 points on .540/.427/.814 shooting splits, Williams is well-positioned to increase his scoring if his role expands. He is favored to become a 20-point scorer at -280 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Holmgren, on the other hand, is not favored to make that leap in his sophomore season. He’s at +380 after averaging 16.5 points in 29.4 minutes per game.
Which Young Wing Will Take a Leap?
Jonathan Kuminga: With Klay Thompson departing for the Dallas Mavericks after a 13-year career with the Golden State Warriors, there’s now a void on the team. The Warriors’ front office views Kuminga as a player with significant potential, and he will have the opportunity to capitalize on a larger role. He’s +170 on DraftKings Sportsbook to average 20 points per game.
There are a few questions surrounding Kuminga’s trajectory as a scorer. Last season, he averaged 16.1 points in 26.3 minutes, a pace of 21.9 points per 36 minutes. At that rate, he’d need to play around 32.6 minutes to hit the 20-point threshold. He already ranked second on the team in usage rate (23.7%).
If Kuminga plays more and his responsibility increases, he has a strong chance to reach 20 points per game. Improving his spot-up shooting, becoming more effective in pick-and-roll situations, and taking on more isolation plays could create a formula for success.
Brandon Miller: After being selected No. 2 overall in last year’s NBA Draft, Miller put together an impressive rookie season, averaging 17.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.4 assists with solid efficiency. He shot 44.0% overall, 37.3% from three, and 82.7% from the free-throw line. While he was efficient in many areas, there’s room for improvement, especially in isolation plays.
Miller already had a 23.5% usage rate in the Hornets’ offense last season. That figure rose to 24.9% after the All-Star break, indicating further room for growth following Terry Rozier’s midseason trade to the Miami Heat. As his involvement picks up, Miller is -280 on DraftKings Sportsbook to average at least 20 points per game this season.
During that stretch, Miller’s scoring average increased to 18.5 points per game, with his shot attempts rising from 13.9 to 15.9. Although his efficiency declined slightly, his expanded role suggests he’s close to breaking the 20-point mark.
What is Jaren Jackson Jr.’s Role with Ja Morant Back?
Despite an injury-riddled season for the Memphis Grizzlies, one bright spot was Jaren Jackson Jr., who averaged 22.5 points in 66 games with a 30.2% usage rate. His playing time increased from 28.4 minutes per game in 2022-23 to 32.2 minutes amid the team’s injuries.
Even with Morant on the floor, Jackson still averaged 21 points in the nine games they played together. Heading into the upcoming season, Jackson is +165 on DraftKings Sportsbook to average 20 points per game. His outlook will largely depend on his production alongside Morant and Desmond Bane.
Jackson remains well-positioned to score at a high volume, although his efficiency was less than ideal, ranking tied for 28th among 33 players with 1,500 or more offensive possessions. A scaled-down role may help his efficiency, but he will need to improve his scoring on a per-touch basis to maintain such output. Continuing to play over 30 minutes per game will also be crucial.
Toronto Raptors Have Some Options
With only so many shot attempts to go around, the Toronto Raptors have three players on the board for this prop bet: RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Immanuel Quickley. The question is, which one of them—or perhaps more than one—will break the 20-point-per-game barrier?
RJ Barrett: After being traded from the New York Knicks, Barrett took on a larger role with the Raptors, averaging 21.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists in 32 games. Entering the new season with similar circumstances, Barrett is heavily favored at -600 on DraftKings Sportsbook to average 20 points per game.
Scottie Barnes: While Barrett’s arrival saw his scoring increase, it resulted in a slight drop for Barnes, who averaged 18.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists in 23 games alongside Barrett. Without Barrett, Barnes’ scoring rose to 20.9 points in 37 games. Barnes is at -240 on DraftKings Sportsbook to reach 20 points per game, although his confidence in his three-point shooting will play a key role.
Immanuel Quickley: A dark-horse candidate, Quickley averaged 18.6 points in 38 games after being traded by the Knicks to the Raptors. If he can improve his efficiency from inside the three-point line — having shot just 44.8% on two-point field goals with Toronto — there’s a genuine chance he could boost his scoring. He’s at +320 on DraftKings Sportsbook to average 20 points per game. For some optimism, Quickley shot 50.9% on two-point field goals in 30 games with the Knicks before the trade.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is grant-afseth) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
