Joe Burrow makes his return to the field for the Bengals as they host the New England Patriots in Week 1. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patriots (+8.5) vs. Bengals o/u 41
Patriots Team Breakdown
The Patriots drafted QB Drake Maye out of UNC to start a new era in New England after moving on from Mac Jones. However, it’s Jacoby Brissett who will be the Week 1 starter for New England. Frankly, I believe this indicates that the Patriots know they will not be very good.
To put it a bit more gently: New Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo stated that they want to protect Drake Maye from getting beat up right away in his NFL career. The Patriots have a lot of issues on the offensive line, and a lack of experienced skill-position players. That’s a bad combination for a rookie quarterback. Therefore, Brissett.
The Patriots are going to start a 2024 fourth-round draft pick, Layden Robinson, at right guard, as well as a 2023 fourth-round pick at left guard. Outside of center David Andrews, this is a really inexperienced offensive line that could have a lot of issues early on this season.
Defensively, the Patriots traded star EDGE Matthew Judon to the Falcons, and DT Christian Barmore could potentially miss the entire season with an injury. It’s not great. The Patriots had a top-ten defense last season, and the top-ranked rush defense. However, without Judon and Barmore this front seven will look much different.
Most importantly, the Patriots lost the legendary Bill Belichick, who was very involved in the defense playcalling as head coach. The Patriots also lost Steve Belichick, who was co-defensive coordinator with new head coach, Jerod Mayo.
This defense was so good for so long partially due to Belichick’s schemes, so only time will tell if Mayo can replicate or even improve upon them.
Bengals Team Breakdown
Joe Burrow is back at quarterback for the Bengals, and it looks like they might actually have all of their weapons. Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase were both in contract disputes throughout the summer but both are expected to play on Sunday, even with Chase waiting until the very last minute.
The Bengals lost long-time RB Joe Mixon this offseason, but brought in Zack Moss to pair with Chase Brown. They should be just fine in the backfield.
As always, the concern with the Bengals is on the offensive line. They hope that former Patriot Trent Brown will help shore up that line at right tackle.
Defensively, the Bengals brought in NT Sheldon Rankins and safety Geno Stone to improve a unit that finished 23rd in defensive DVOA last season. The return of Joe Burrow and an improved offense should also help this unit that finished 20th in scoring defense last season. However, this Patriots offense should be a good first matchup for them with the lack of weapons on the opposite side.
Pick and Prediction
The Patriots might be the worst team in the NFL this season. The Bengals should take care of business at home. However, this is a big number to lay in Week 1.
Since 2003, favorites of a touchdown or more in Week 1 are 14-27 (34.1%). Often teams need time to shake off some rust in the first game of the season and in general, it is always hard to win by big margins in the NFL.
My favorite bet on this game is incorporating the Bengals in a 6-point two-team teaser with the Cowboys, who face the Browns on Sunday. The Bengals are a great teaser piece because you can bypass the two most important numbers in NFL betting, 3 and 7, to get them under a field goal at -2.5. You can do the same with the Cowboys in the opposite direction, making them an underdog of 8.5.
Best Bet: Bengals -2.5/Cowboys +8.5 6-Point Teaser (-120)
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