The Texans were the breakout team of the NFL last season and hope to carry that momentum into 2024 as they take on the Colts in Indianapolis. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texans (-3) vs. Colts o/u 48.5
Texans Team Breakdown
The Texans made an incredible leap last season. CJ Stroud had one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in the NFL’s history, culminating in winning a playoff game in dominant fashion before falling to the Ravens in the Divisional Round. The Texans are going all-in with this offense while Stroud is still on his rookie deal. They added RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs this offseason to an already loaded skill position group that includes Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
Defensively, DeMeco Ryans is a fantastic coach. This defense was about league average last season, finishing 16th in defensive DVOA, but they were really tough in the red zone, finishing 11th in scoring defense. The Texans lost some pieces, particularly at linebacker, this offseason but also brought in a lot of new pieces. They made a great singing in edge rusher Danielle Hunter, LB Azeez Al-Shaair and a mixture of young guys with upside and veteran depth.
The sky is the limit for Stroud and this offense. It should be a top-10 offense in the league immediately, and they could be a top-5 offense if everyone stays healthy and Stefon Diggs looks like his old self. The Texans also have great defensive coaching, so if the new pieces click together, it should be a solid defense that complements an elite offense.
Colts Team Breakdown
The Colts are in a bit of an odd place. Last year was supposed to be the start of a new era for the franchise, with QB Anthony Richardson and Head Coach Shane Steichen in their first season with the team. However, Richardson played in just four games before suffering a season-ending injury. The Colts ended up having a decent season, just missing out on a playoff spot, but it almost didn’t even count as a first year for Steichen.
Anthony Richardson is healthy and ready for this new season, but there are still worries about his long-term health. The way that Richardson plays sets him up to take hits and potentially get injured again in the future. The Colts returned most of their skill position players from last season and added WR AD Mitchell in the draft. However, last year’s breakout rookie, WR Josh Downs, will likely miss this game with an injury.
Most concerns about this team are on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary. CB Kenny Moore is a consistently solid cover guy, but he can only do so much as a slot corner. Everywhere else in the secondary, they have really young guys who have not proven they can be consistent starters in this league. That is not what you want when facing this Texans offense.
Pick and Prediction
The Texans won this matchup in Indianapolis at the end of the 2023 regular season, thanks to a nearly flawless CJ Stroud performance. Stroud should have another monster game against a Colts secondary with a lot of holes in it. The Colts’ only real chance to slow them down is by getting a pass rush, but by the end of last season, Stroud had gotten good at sack avoidance.
Anthony Richardson has a high upside and could be a good NFL quarterback, but he needs to prove it on the field. His injury concerns are a major red flag, and after not playing a game for almost a year, there could be a rust level that is worse than that of the average player in Week 1. This doesn’t necessarily correlate to future success, but the Colts have been terrible in season openers as a franchise. They are 2-13-1 SU and 1-14-1 ATS in Week 1 games over the last 16 years. Other than one win by Andrew Luck, the Colts haven’t won in Week 1 since Peyton Manning was there.
The Texans are the more reliable team, and this is a great matchup for their elite passing offense against an unknown Colts secondary. Therefore, I will lay the points with the Texans in their season opener.
Best Bet: Texans -3
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