The endless offseason wait is over. Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, and with it comes opportunity for sports bettors of all forms. From fantasy football fans to player prop experts and everything in between, one format that continues to grow in popularity is survivor pools.
This format allows fans to pick one team to win each week with the condition that they cannot choose them again throughout the season. Week 1 has a blank canvas with all 32 teams available but it is important to look ahead and maximize your opportunity. Even still, you cannot afford to slip up and eliminate yourself early on so here is a breakdown of the top options for survivor pool players in Week 1.
1. Cincinnati Bengals over New England Patriots (-7.5 Spread and -345 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Cincinnati Bengals will face the New England Patriots in Week 1 at home. Cincinnati enters the season with the 5th-best odds to win the Super Bowl this season, while the Patriots hold just +300 odds for the fewest wins this year—the lowest in the NFL.
I am not fully sold on the Bengals for this season. Joe Burrow is coming off another serious injury and has had some limitations with how often he could throw in training camp. Ja’Marr Chase also missed nearly all of training camp in his holdout for a new contract.
However, Cincinnati is still in a significantly better position to win this season. Despite the Patriots’ head coach Jerod Mayo basically admitting that rookie Drake Maye has outplayed the veteran, Jacoby Brissett will be starting under center for the opening week. There are concerns with New England’s offensive line and the positional spots are not strong on the Patriots roster.
The Bengals are in a great spot to pick up a week one win and start the season off right. Especially with some lingering concerns about how they will stack up late in the season, Cincinnati is my favorite opening-week pick. This will be my personal pick for the week.
2. New Orleans Saints over Carolina Panthers (-4 Spread and -192 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The New Orleans Saints are quietly coming off a 9-8 season in which they just missed the playoffs. They will be playing Week 1 with the home crowd behind them against a Panthers team which is coming off a disastrous last season.
There is a great deal of pressure on Bryce Young to prove he is a franchise-caliber starting quarterback worthy of the number one pick. The 23-year-old struggled greatly as a rookie and was especially overshadowed by the strong play of C.J. Stroud. Expect some growth from Young this season, but not enough to elevate the team to becoming much of a threat. Carolina has a season-long team total of just 5.5 games this season and has the worst odds of all teams to win the NFC conference as a whole.
New Orleans has a high floor this year. Derek Carr is a solid quarterback with Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave in his arsenal. In addition, the Saints defense ranked 4th in turnovers generated, 8th in points allowed, and 3rd in first downs allowed last season.
Don’t expect this to be a headline game dominating the Red Zone screens. But feel confident in the Saints to put themselves in a good position to win and for Carolina to continue working through their growing pains.
3. Houston Texans over Indianapolis Colts (-2.5 Spread and -148 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Houston Texans enter this season as one of the most highly anticipated teams in the NFL. C.J. Stroud is coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign, Houston made the playoffs for the first time since 2019, and the organization made a notable move by adding Stefon Diggs to their already dangerous receiving core. They will be opening up against another quarterback from Stroud’s class in Anthony Richardson. This matchup will be taking place in Indianapolis.
There is a great deal of intrigue with the Colts this season. Richardson is the driving force for this after missing the majority of his rookie season with a shoulder injury. While Richardson will surely elevate this Colts team, which is coming off of a 9-8 season, there will also be growing pains. A win is a win, but the Colts also were a beneficiary of an easy schedule in several of these wins last year. Between weeks 7 and 17 last year, Indianapolis went 6-4. During this time they faced off with opposing starting quarterbacks P.J. Walker, Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Jake Browning, Mitch Trubisky, Taylor Heinicke, and Aidan O’Connell. With all due respect, this isn’t exactly a murderer’s row.
There also are some significant growing pains that Anthony Richardson needs to play through. The former 4th overall pick played in just four games last season. This also is the same quarterback that had a 53.8% completion percentage his last season in college.
If the Texans are the team they are expected to be, they should have no problem in this matchup. This is a great chance for Houston to go on the road and prove this in the opening week. Expect this to be the case and for Houston to start the season on the right foot.
4. Seattle Seahawks over Denver Broncos (-6 Spread and -250 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Seattle Seahawks are coming off back-to-back 9-8 seasons and will be looking to get back in the playoffs this year. Geno Smith has successfully revived his NFL career and will be looking to continue to build on it. They have a great chance to do just this against a Broncos team coming off a disastrous season and with a rookie quarterback starting under center.
Bo Nix will be a name to keep an eye on this year. The 12th overall pick has been named one of the captains of the Broncos and has received plenty of praise coming out of training camp. He had an up-and-down college career and will dictate what the Broncos’ chances are this year. No matter how they perform, Denver is interested in Nix’s long term development.
The biggest concern with Denver falls on the defensive side of the ball. Last season they ranked 27th in scoring defense, 29th in yards allowed, and 26th in 1st downs allowed. Look for the team to struggle to get stops and Smith to be able to lead the offense to enough production. With the home crowd behind them, feel confident in the Seahawks getting a Week 1 victory.
5. Chicago Bears over Tennessee Titans (-4 Spread and -198 Moneyline Favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook)
There is plenty of buzz surrounding the Chicago Bears this season. With first-overall pick Caleb Williams under center and one of the best trios of wide receivers in the NFL, Chicago is expected to take one of the biggest leaps in the entire NFL this year.
They will be facing off against the Tennessee Titans who are coming off a 6-11 season and made a coaching change this offseason. They also lost franchise centerpiece Derrick Henry who will be suiting up for the Ravens this year. Will Levis is set to continue as the starting quarterback for Tennessee after throwing eight touchdowns and four interceptions in his first nine games as a starter.
While there is plenty of reason for optimism with the Bears this season, Tennessee will probably take a step back. Expect this to be put on full display in the opening week and for Caleb Williams to start his season off as expected. Tennesse will be in the mix for the worst team in the NFL, and you can get ahead of it by backing the Bears in the opening week.
Games to Avoid:
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs New York Giants (+102 ML)
A battle of some really bad teams will kick off this season. This will be a telling matchup for the season moving forward. Pay attention to which of these teams you might be able to steal a win with, at some point but this game is a must-avoid in Week 1.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs Baltimore Ravens (+130 ML)
The opening matchup of the NFL season features the top two teams in the AFC. The back-to-back Super Bowl champions will be receiving their rings and there will be plenty going on in the matchup. However, if there is a time to catch the Chiefs, it is early on in the season. In either case, you are going to want to save both of these teams for later on in the season.
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) vs Green Bay Packers (+114 ML)
The second game of the 2024 NFL season will take place down in Brazil. It features two teams that finished last year trending in the exact opposite directions. The Eagles started last season 10-1 before ending in free fall and being upset by the Buccaneers in the opening round of the playoffs. In contrast, Jordan Love played impressive football down the stretch last year for the Packers and has a chance to take another leap this season. It is to be determined what is real and what isn’t. Stay away from either of these risky picks for the opening week.
San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) vs New York Jets (+180 ML)
The defending NFC Champion 49ers will be facing off with the Jets in the first Monday Night matchup. San Francisco will be looking to get back to their deep playoff aspirations to get over the hump. New York is one of the bigger mysteries this year as they have championship-level defense despite Aaron Rodgers being the biggest question mark in perhaps the entire league. Give it at least a week to see how Rodgers looks and save both of these teams for later in the year.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
