The back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, host the Baltimore Ravens to kick off the NFL season. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ravens (+3) vs. Chiefs o/u 46.5
The Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls and get to open the 2024 NFL season at their home stadium to start their quest for a 3-peat. The game will be a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game against the Ravens when the Chiefs won 17-10 in Baltimore. These two teams have the best odds to win the AFC at DraftKings Sportsbook, so they could see each other in the postseason again with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line.
Chiefs Team Breakdown
What else is there to say about the Chiefs? They have been to four of the past five Super Bowls and won three. Patrick Mahomes is in a category of his own as the best quarterback in the league, and despite an inconsistent revolving door of skill position players outside of Travis Kelce, Mahomes does it again and again. The Chiefs did make an effort to bolster that wide receiver group this offseason by drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round and acquiring Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
All of those players have some questions about how productive they can be, but with Mahomes at the helm, magic should ensue. However, Hollywood Brown will miss the season opener against his former team with a shoulder injury. Another player to monitor for Kansas City is their 2024 second-round draft pick, Kingsley Suamataia. Suamataia will start at left tackle against one of the NFL’s best defenses in his first career game.
Defensively, the Chiefs return most of their Super Bowl-winning unit. On paper, there aren’t many names that jump off the page as all-pro guys outside of Chris Jones (Trent McDuffie was All-Pro last season as well). However, this is one of the best-coached defenses in the NFL, and they are consistently at the top of the list of the best scoring defenses. Last year, they were second in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 17 PPG.
Ravens Team Breakdown
The Ravens will be one of the best teams in the AFC again this season. They made it to the AFC Championship Game last season and addressed some needs in the offseason. They bolstered the offensive line and added depth in the secondary through the draft. They also added Derrick Henry to this already elite rushing attack. They hope Henry’s durability will provide what they have been missing to make a postseason run this season.
Lamar Jackson hasn’t been able to break through in the postseason yet, but he is a monster in the regular season. Jackson is coming off his second MVP season. However, he has struggled against the Chiefs in the past. In four career starts against Kansas City, he averaged a 56% completion percentage and just 187.5 passing yards per game. Steve Spagnuolo is an elite defensive coach and always makes it tough on Jackson.
Pick and Prediction
When it comes to historical trends, there are a few noteworthy nuggets on this game:
- Mahomes is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in season openers, last year’s game against the Lions being his first-ever Week 1 loss.
- As the Chiefs’ coach, Andy Reid is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in season openers.
- Mahomes and Jackson have faced each other four times head-to-head. The Chiefs are 3-1 in those games, with the only loss coming in 2021 when Clyde Edwards-Helaire fumbled just before the Chiefs could attempt a potential game-winning field goal.
- The “Super Bowl hangover” is a myth when it comes to the defending champions. Since 2000, teams are 14-9-1 ATS in Week 1 the season after they won the Super Bowl.
One big edge in this game is Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo over Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken. These two matched up in the postseason last year, and Spagnuolo put on a defensive coaching clinic. Monken kept making adjustments to make things easier for Lamar Jackson but Spags thwarted him at every turn. The Ravens scored only ten points in that AFC Championship Game, and the Chiefs held them to just 81 rushing yards, a season-low for Baltimore.
The truth is when you need Mahomes to basically just win a game, it is really hard to go against him. He has struggled to cover big numbers in the past, but as a favorite of three points or less or as an underdog, Mahomes is 19-6-1 (76%) ATS in his career. I will be backing Mahomes to take care of business as he starts his hunt for three straight Super Bowls. I am buying the half-point to move this line from Chiefs -3 (-102) to Chiefs -2.5 (-120). This game could easily come down to a last-minute drive by Mahomes in a tie game that ends in a Butker field goal to win by three.
Best Bet: Chiefs -2.5 (-120)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
