GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough and guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 1.
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Stacks
Game Stack: TEN Titans at CHI Bears
Will Levis ($5,300) – Calvin Ridley ($5,500) – Tony Pollard ($5,900) – D.J. Moore ($6,500)
As I mentioned above in the intro, we’re not looking to rehash the same plays and lineups that everyone else is making in this column. To win the $5 Milly Maker this week you need to beat 951247 other lineups so making lower-owned rosters is a valuable trait in these kinds of fields.
While we expect some of the Bears players to be highly owned in this matchup, I doubt we’ll see many of the Titans players carry much ownership at all, with QB Will Levis potentially carrying the lowest ownership of all QBs on the slate. Levis was brilliant in preseason going 7/8 in his last start while averaging 14.8 yards per throw. Last season he led the NFL in average target depth at 10.6 yards. The Bears also profile as a classic funnel to the pass unit on defense and it’s one I think Levis can take advantage of.
As mentioned above, the Bears have a great rush defense but ranked just 19th in EPA per dropback. They’ll also have to deal with an expanded receiving core on Tennessee this season, with Calvin Ridley likely to line up across the Bears’ second corner in Tyrique Stevenson. I expect Ridley to benefit from DeAndre Hopkins’ presence a lot this year and it should start this week. Additionally, while you could throw Hopkins in your Titans stacks if his snaps are limited (questionable – knee) then it’s likely better to go with newly signed Tony Pollard as a secondary option alongside Ridley. Pollard played four drives in the preseason and recorded four catches for 38 yards on four targets.
Chicago also had trouble dealing with pass-catching RBs last year, allowing the most receiving yards to the position by a longshot (228 yards more than second-place Los Angeles). Pollard could return value on PPR points alone and if he finds the end zone, he could be a sneaky candidate for the highest RB producer in Week 1.
On the flip side, if you like the Titans’ passing game to go off, that should mean plenty of targets for at least one of the Bears’ WRs. I’m interested in rookie Rome Odzune ($4,000), but ultimately feel like he’ll see limited snaps with Chicago’s other options being so good. DJ Moore profiles as the kind of big-body receiver that rookies tend to gravitate toward and should be best suited for dealing with Tennessee’s improved secondary. Moore’s upside is also clearly the best of this three-man rotation (for now) as evidenced by the fact he put up five games last year with 25.0 DKFP or more — including a 52.0 point effort against Washington. All things considered, he should not be $400 cheaper than Keenan Allen ($6,900) in this spot.
Quarterback: Anthony Richardson ($6,300)
There are two rushing QBs Kyler Murray ($6,400) and Richardson available for use in the low-6K range, and both have a lot of appeal this week. As much as I like the spot for a potential backdoor cover and lots of points for Arizona, I can’t overlook Anthony Richardson in a Shane Steichen-led offense at just $6,300. Richardson was a phenomenal fantasy producer before he got the injury bug, landing a 30.6 DKFP outing at home against the Rams in Week 4, an effort that saw him run for a TD and throw for two more.
His inefficiencies as a passer are what pundits like to focus on, but in many ways, they only make him more valuable for fantasy, as the Colts will rarely be ahead by a ton if he’s making mistakes — making a lot of their games close and higher scoring. This Texans/Colts game has the highest total on the slate for Week 1 so Richardson is going to be highly owned but you can get creative by rostering him with lower-owned receivers like TE Kylen Granson ($2,900) or WR Alec Pierce ($4,000), who may see more run with Josh Downs listed as questionable.
Running Back
Top End: Kenneth Walker ($6,100)
Kenneth Walker could be set for a huge year. The third-year back scored nine TDs last year with eight of them coming on the ground. While there was some worry he may be in a time split with second-year back Zach Charbonnet ($5,500) that isn’t a situation that has transpired over training camp at all. Charbonnet has been injured and was playing behind Walker who sat out the preseason.
In terms of upside, it’s not hard to see why the Seahawks would prioritize Walker either. He had 11 run plays of 20+ yards last season while working behind a mostly pedestrian Seahawks o-line. Seattle should be a team that sees a sharp rise in scoring this season as well with Ryan Grubb at OC, the former University of Washington head coach, who led one of the top-scoring teams in the nation last year. The matchup doesn’t get much better either as Seattle has a 23.5 implied team total and is installed as -5.5 favorites against Denver, who ranked 27th in success rate against the run.
Low End: Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,300)
Sticking with the same game, there is a pretty low-priced option to use as a comeback play on the Broncos this week in second-year RB Jaleel McLaughlin. The Broncos just jettisoned Samaje Perine to the Chiefs last week leaving their backfield a two-man rotation between Javonte Williams ($5,500) and McLaughlin. There is no doubt that Williams will be the workhorse and likely get the first crack at short-yardage opportunities but McLaughlin is a dynamic passing back who averaged 5.4 yards per carry and scored twice as a receiver (in limited usage) in 2023.
On top of getting more passing game work this year with Perine gone, he should benefit from having a rookie QB in Bo Nix ($5,000) who is likely to use the check-down option a lot this season, especially when down on the scoreboard. The Broncos are in tough on the road this week in hostile Seattle and if their offense does produce (through Walker or the air), then McLaughlin seems likely to get a heavy run in this game.
Wide Receiver
Top End: Mike Evans ($7,300)
Mike Evans is the unquestionable number-one option in Tampa Bay. In Baker Mayfield’s first season as the starter, he targeted Evans 136 times, which led to 79 reception season with 1,255 yards (and 14 TDs), his best statistical performance since 2018. I don’t expect the offense to change much in Tampa Bay for 2024, even though they did change OC’s. They only added a depth piece at WR and Mayfield is back at QB, and still wanting to prove himself for a potential second contract extension in a couple of years.
The Commanders did wholesale changes on defense and are now being led by a defensive-minded coach in Dan Quinn, but also ranked second-last in yards per attempt against last year. Even if this unit does show improvement, the ageless Evans is likely to see plenty of targets in a game with just a 3.5 spread, and rookie Jayden Daniels ($5,700) on the other side also providing more explosive playmaking. When it comes down to it, Evans has a good connection with his QB and has far fewer concerns than the other high-priced WRs this week in his range. He’s a great pay-up option for Week 1.
Top Value: Ladd McConkey ($4,700)
There is obviously some fear of the unknown with McConkey, who was taken by the Chargers in the first round of the draft and selected to replace Keenan Allen, who left behind a whopping 150 targets from last season. Even if the Chargers don’t throw the ball as much with Jim Harbaugh as head coach, McConkey is still going to feature in this offense, and it may surprise some people how much he gets targeted. McConkey was injured at points in the preseason but he was lining up all over the field at points in training camp and will be tied to a top 10 QB in Justin Herbert from Day 1.
The Raiders went offense in the first round this year and didn’t add any big names on the backend so it’s not like they’re overflowing with talent in their secondary either. With the Chargers likely looking to neutralize the Raiders’ front seven and pass rush, it’s not hard to see McConkey get peppered with short-timing throws and screen passes in his first start and piling up the PPR points. That alone could be enough for him to return modest value, and at just $4,700, if he does break a big play or find the end zone, he could end up being the play of the slate.
Tight End: Evan Engram ($5,500)
Engram should be in for another big season. The former Giant led the Jaguars with 114 receptions on 143 targets and now will be part of a Jaguars receiving unit that will have to collectively make up for the 150 targets that Calvin Ridley left behind. Yes, rookie Bryan Thomas ($4,700) will take some of those looks but Thomas profiles more as a deeper route option and his route tree seems likely to be limited early on.
Preseason only worked to signify the importance of Engram to this offense, and his role as its main target after he collected four catches on four targets for 28 yards and two TDs in his only appearance. The Dolphins do have good outside corners but they also ceded the fourth most Fantasy Points per game to opposing TEs in 2023 and allowed the fourth-most receiving TDs to the position. On the subject of TDs, Engram’s also a great positive regression candidate for landing more scores this year as he only found the end zone 4 times last year, a number that seems likely to rise in 2024. A hot start in a potentially fast-paced game seems likely.
Defense/Special Teams: Dolphins ($3,200)
The Dolphins DST should be in a good spot this weekend to potentially make some noise. They’re 3.0 favorites at home vs the Jaguars and have a history of starting fast under Mike McDaniel, who is 10-4 ATS as a home favorite. Last year, Trevor Lawrence ($6,200) threw 14 INTs and fumbled the ball 12 times, making him one of the most turnover-prone QBs in the league.
Miami has skill in the secondary with Jalen Ramsey, Kendall Fuller, and Jordan Poyer and was second in sack rate last year. The Dolphins also averaged a very solid 10.4 DKFP as a DST unit at home in 2023 but had massive home-road splits and collected eight more turnovers in their nine home games than they did in their nine road games. Given the collective groupthink on Trevor Lawrence is still mildly positive, and this line is still somehow sitting at just a field goal, Miami shouldn’t be overly owned in large fields this week making them a nice contrarian pick for GPP entries.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
