The 2024 NFL season has finally arrived, and a new group of young talent is intent on making their mark on the league. This season’s rookie class is loaded with talent, and many players fall into favorable locations.
Each draft pick will be looking to cement themselves as a key part of the future of the league from day one. The NFL Rookie of the Year trophy is set to be awarded to this impactful player at the season’s conclusion. This is an award where opportunity must be weighed over just pure talent as not all rookies will get an equal chance on their new team. While oftentimes thought of as a quarterback award, this has not proven to be the case in NFL history.
C.J. Stroud is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year winner after a wildly successful season last year. In the two years prior, Garrett Wilson and Ja’Marr Chase took home the award. In the last 11 years, only four quarterbacks have won Offensive Rookie of the Year. In the 57 years of the Super Bowl era, a quarterback has only won the award 11 times.
It is to be seen if another quarterback is added to this list this season. Before each of the rookies make their debuts, here is a look at the opening odds for the biggest threats and some darkhorse names to keep an eye on over on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Caleb Williams: (+135) – Chicago Bears
There are lofty expectations for Caleb Williams as he heads into his rookie season. The USC product was labeled as the surefire number-one pick for quite some time and has a style of play expected to translate immediately. He lands on the Chicago Bears who have done a nice job building up a roster around the quarterback position in recent years. They will now hope Williams can produce as expected and be the missing piece for the organization.
The former PAC-12 Player of the Year and Heisman Trophy Winner carries himself in a way where you shouldn’t expect anything different. Williams has already been named team captain, has a trio of talented wide receivers around him, and has shown flashes in preseason. He has already been handed the keys to the franchise and Williams’ pathway to Rookie of the Year is clear.
Jayden Daniels: (+500) – Washington Commanders
It did not take much longer for Jayden Daniels to hear his name called on draft night. The LSU product and reigning Heisman Trophy winner is set to take over as the Commanders starting quarterback from the opening week. Following a 4-13 season, the Commanders will be looking to take a significant leap forward.
Daniels will rely on his dual-threat abilities for some of his success. He is coming off a season at LSU in which he threw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns while adding 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns with his legs. Washington has more talent than they have been given credit with Terry McLaurin being a reliable threat in the passing game and a pair of solid running backs in Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler in the backfield. Daniels may have to do more for his team than Williams will have to do for them for his team to have success, but this could play into his favor in the Rookie of the Year race.
Marvin Harrison Jr: (+650) – Arizona Cardinals
The fourth overall pick in the NFL draft, Marvin Harrison Jr. has a case to be made for the most talented player in this draft class. He was the first non-quarterback to hear his name called on draft night, and the Ohio State product will be expected to make a notable impact for the Cardinals from day one.
Harrison Jr enters with a better quarterback situation than can often be the case. Kyler Murray has had a bit of an up-and-down career thus far but is in line for an improved season this year. The former number-one overall pick made his return from an ACL tear last season and played the second half of the season. He will benefit greatly from Harrison Jr’s presence and the rookie may immediately establish himself as Murray’s most dangerous and reliable weapon. If this duo can find its stride early on, Harrison Jr will put together a strong Rookie of the Year case.
Bo Nix: (+1000) – Denver Broncos
The third rookie quarterback set to start in the NFL this year is Denver’s Bo Nix. The 12th overall pick had a strange five years of college. In his three seasons at Auburn, Nix massively underwhelmed and had some huge red flags in his game. He then transferred to Oregon for his final two seasons where he looked like the player he was expected to be, earning PAC-12 Offensive Player of the Year honors.
The Broncos are still attempting to rebound from the failed Russell Wilson experiment. While they are likely a few years away from truly competing, Nix will be given a long leash to play through his mistakes. The 24-year-old has some impressive arm talent and if he shines under head coach Sean Payton, the rest of the NFL will notice. While his surrounding situation may not be as great as the names ahead of him, if Nix’s talent matches his opportunity he is set for an impressive year.
Drake Maye: (+1300) – New England Patriots
The Patriots selected Drake Maye with the third overall pick in this year’s draft, but are being more cautious in their developmental plan. The organization has named Jacoby Brissett the Week 1 starter despite Maye outplaying him in the preseason in the eyes of many. It is unclear how long this will last and the expectation is that Maye will at some point step into the starting quarterback spot.
The main holdup seems to be that the rest of the roster is simply not built to compete regardless of who is at quarterback. Maye is an intriguing prospect who has shown some real flashes in preseason. However, the combination of the concerning roster construction around him and unclear opportunity ahead has me skeptical of Maye being a true Rookie of the Year threat.
Malik Nabers: (+1400) – New York Giants
The New York Giants selected Malik Nabers with the sixth overall pick in this year’s draft. The LSU product is coming off back-to-back seasons with 1,000+ yards receiving, including last year with 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns through the air. Nabers is a wide receiver talent that pops off the page and is next in line from the factory of star wide receivers that LSU has become.
The biggest concern for his level of production lines is how he will get the football. New York will enter this season with Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback once again this year. The former Duke product signed a four-year $160 million contract in the 2023 offseason. After suffering a torn ACL last year, Jones will be returning to the field looking to get back on the proper career trajectory. As talented as Nabers is, Jones does not drive the necessary confidence level to believe he has a true chance at the Rookie of the Year Award.
Other Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds:
- Xavier Worthy: +2200
- Ladd McConkey: +3500
- Keon Coleman: +3500
- Brock Bowers: +5000
- Brian Thomas Jr: +5000
- MarShawn Lloyd: +6000
- Rome Odunze: +7000
My Pick: Caleb Williams (+135)
Unfortunately, the Offensive Rookie of the Year market is not one in which I see a ton of value in. The stage is set for Caleb Williams to kick off his career successfully and earn the Rookie of the Year award. He walks into one of the best situations a top quarterback has in recent history and will be able to rely on the players around him in a way many other rookies will not have the luxury.
With the right combination of talent level, opportunity, and situation, Caleb Williams seems to already have the inside track on the award. It is not great value on the betting board to open the year, but it seems unlikely this number will remain plus value for very long. Jump on the Williams Rookie of the Year odds before the season kicks off and buckle up for what could be a historic rookie year.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
